Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are flat after the House passed the debt-ceiling bill. Bonds and MBS are up.
Philly Fed President Patrick Harker said the Fed “really should skip, not pause,” a rate hike at the June meeting. “I’m not saying that we’re not going to continue to tighten,” Harker said, citing sticky inflation, “but I think we can take a bit of a skip for a meeting” to assess how the aggressive tightening cycle that started in March 2022 has impacted the real economy. “The Fed doesn’t have to hike at every meeting.”
This comment caused a pretty dramatic shift in the Fed Funds futures, which now see a 75% chance of a pause in June after forecasting a 75% chance of a hike a few days ago.
If the Fed pauses in June, that should hopefully suck some volatility out of the bond market, which has been elevated since the Fed started tightening last year. The MOVE Index is sort of like a VIX for bonds shows how much volatility has increased:
Since MBS spreads are a function of interest rate volatility, any decrease should be supportive, which does pave the way for lower mortgage rates going forward, especially if the 10 year yield starts working its way lower.
First quarter productivity was revised upward from -2.7% to -2.1% as employment costs were revised downward from 6.3% to 4.2%. Unit labor costs were driven by a 2.1% increase in compensation and a 2.1% decrease in productivity. While negative productivity is never a good thing for inflation, the downward revision in unit labor costs is encouraging.
Private employers added 278,000 jobs in May, according to the ADP Employment Report. Annual pay increased 6.5%. The bulk of the jobs were added in leisure / hospitality, while construction and mining increased as well. We saw decreases in manufacturing and all of the white collar categories. “This is the second month we’ve seen a full percentage point decline in pay growth for job changers,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Pay growth is slowing substantially, and wage-driven inflation may be less of a concern for the economy despite robust hiring.”
The manufacturing economy contracted for the 7th straight month, according to the ISM Manufacturing Report. The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank again, with the Manufacturing PMI® losing a bit of ground compared to the previous month, indicating a faster rate of contraction. The May composite index reading reflects companies continuing to manage outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period. However, there is clearly more business uncertainty in May.”
On the plus side, any supply chain issues from COVID appear to be long gone.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
It was all bullshit all along:
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I’m sure this will work out just fine with no unintended consequences
“If you live in California, your power bill will soon depend on your income
A new California law is sparking backlash — with uncertain benefits for clean energy
By Shannon Osaka
Updated June 1, 2023 at 11:21 a.m. EDT”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/06/01/should-your-electricity-bills-depend-how-much-money-you-make/
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Seymour Hersh has a new piece up on Durham & Russiagate.
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/russiagates-missing-pieces
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Props.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/01/hunter-biden-supreme-court-second-amendment-00099544
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Looks like Musk caved.
“Meet the New Twitter, Same as the Old Twitter?
Matt Walsh’s “What is a Woman?” is the kind of content most thought would be safe under new Twitter ownership. A new battle over the film feels like an attack of nanny-Twitter déjà vu
Matt Taibbi
Jun 1, 2023″
https://www.racket.news/p/meet-the-new-twitter-same-as-the
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Sounds like Musk canned a bunch of people over this.
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And it’s looking worse and worse:
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About fucking time!
https://alphanews.org/minnesota-to-provide-illegal-immigrants-with-free-college-tuition/
That they’re only doing it now shows you what cheap, bigoted bastards Minnesotans are.
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Eh, it’s a sop to colleges because enrollment is down because they are becoming increasingly more worthless as institutions. I’m guessing.
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All they need to do is fire a bunch of administrators.
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The transgender crisis is a manufactured crisis by conservatives to turn us one against another. There is a lot of science in support of transgender reality but don’t let that stop us from turning advocates into enemies.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/adult-health/in-depth/transgender-facts/art-20266812
Understanding gender dysphoria
Gender dysphoria is a feeling of distress that can happen when a person’s gender identity differs from their sex assigned at birth or from their sex-related physical characteristics. Some transgender and gender-diverse people experience gender dysphoria at some point in their lives. Other transgender and gender-diverse people feel at ease with their bodies and gender identities, and they don’t have gender dysphoria.
A diagnosis for gender dysphoria is included in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5), a manual published by the American Psychiatric Association. This diagnosis was created to help people with gender dysphoria get access to the health care and treatment they need. It focuses on distress as the problem, not a person’s gender identity.
IMO there is both room for acceptance and an obvious over emphasis. Shit happens and rather than declassify trans folks as “other or fake” we should be helping them to become comfortable in their own skin and productive members of society.
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How old should a person be to then be legally able to consent to a sex change operation?
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According to Oregon Democrats, 15.
“Senator Daniel Bonham, a Republican, said he was particularly concerned that the measure would allow minors to obtain an abortion without their parents’ consent, and would affirm that teenagers as young as 15 could seek gender-affirming care on their own.”
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The left is trying to normalize pedophilia. That is what the CA law that makes homosexual pedophilia a non-sex crime does. It is why the left is trying to float the term “minor-attracted person” as a newspeak alternative for pedo. That is what drag queen story hour is about – normalizing homosexual erotic interaction with kids.
Why the left supports this is beyond me, but for some inexplicable reason they do.
Sorry, pedophilia is evil, and the left is trying to normalize it. That is on you people, not us.
And before you say “Well, I never!,” think about what the reaction would be if a teacher took a bunch of 3rd grade boys to a titty bar. What would the left think about that?
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lms:
The transgender crisis is a manufactured crisis by conservatives…
Do you want to have a real discussion about this issue, or do you want to just troll by saying something provacative, and then slither away into silence? Please let me know.
BTW, note that your link does not actually define “gender”, despite the fact that it purports to define lots of other relevant terms. This is because the term, as used by your site, is a complete nonsense term, referring to literally nothing whatsoever. I am willing to bet virtually any amount of money that even you have no idea what they mean by the term “gender”, and that you have spent exactly zero amount of time actually trying to make sense of what they claim.
Prove me wrong.
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lms:
IMO there is both room for acceptance and an obvious over emphasis.
What in the world does this mean? Acceptance of what? Over emphasis of what?
Shit happens and rather than declassify trans folks as “other or fake”…
What are you talking about? What does “declassify trans folk” even mean? And who calls trans people “other or fake”? Again, what in the world are you even talking about?
… we should be helping them to become comfortable in their own skin
I completely agree. But that is precisely the opposite of what so-called affirmative care does. So-called affirmative care is designed to “affirm” their sense of being in the wrong skin, and instructs those that are not comfortable in their own skin (ie bodies) to set about mutilating their bodies rather than to get comfortable with the body they have.
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“So-called affirmative care is designed to “affirm” their sense of being in the wrong skin, and instructs those that are not comfortable in their own skin (ie bodies) to set about mutilating their bodies rather than to get comfortable with the body they have.”
The analogy I would use is it’s akin to prescribing an anorexic diet pills to validate their sense of being too fat or handing razor blades to someone who cuts themselves to “affirm” them.
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Yep. Those are excellent analogies.
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“There is a lot of science in support of transgender reality but don’t let that stop us from turning advocates into enemies.”
The use of the phrase “sex assigned at birth” indicates that the commentary by the Mayo Clinic has nothing to do with science at all.
It’s merely dressed up ideological activism.
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