Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.
Job openings ticked up in April, according to the JOLTs jobs report. Job openings were the highest in retail, health care and warehouse / transportation. The quits rate, which tends to precede wage growth slipped to 2.4%.
Mortgage Applications fell 3.7% last week as purchases fell 3% and refis fell 5%. Rates increased last week on hawkish Fed-speak. “Inflation is still running too high, and recent economic data is beginning to convince investors that the Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates anytime soon. Mortgage rates for conforming, balance 30-year loans were being quoted above 7 percent by some lenders last week, and the weekly average at 6.9 percent reached the highest level since last November,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Application volumes for both purchase and refinance loans decreased last week due to these higher rates. While refinance demand is almost entirely driven by the level of rates, purchase volume continues to be constrained by the lack of homes on the market.”
MBS spreads continue to remain at historically wide levels, which isn’t helping mortgage rates.
About a third of the mortgages originated pre-pandemic were refinanced during 2020 and 2021, according to a research report by the New York Fed. About 14 million mortgages were refinanced during the 7-quarter boom, of which about 2/3 were rate / term refis and the rest were cash-outs. The home equity extraction during the pandemic rivaled the bubble years on a gross dollar basis, but were much lower as a percentage of disposable income. All told, borrowers extracted about $430 billion in equity during the boom. The big question is whether that disposable income number is artificially inflated due to pandemic-related government spending which won’t be recurring.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
The one good thing the Republicans got out of the deal, if it sticks is that if the appropriations bills aren’t passed by regular order this year, there’s more cuts in the deal.
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It’s an interesting development and the devil is in the details. Can it be waived? If so, under what conditions?
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As with anything, it would just take majority votes in the House and Senate. Also, I think it’s only for two years, i.e. the remainder of this Congress.
Democrats still won the war by getting the baseline spending reset to make permanent all the “temporary” emergency pandemic spending.
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The other thing is that student loan payments will resume, ending a direct subsidy to the left’s base.
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For those loans that aren’t waived away by Biden’s student loan forgiveness, assuming it survives the SCOTUS review.
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Nice quip from Ezra Klein about the deal:
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“It’s about a $69 billion cut to spending next year and a $112 billion cut in 2025, with no significant budget caps or automatic cuts kicking in after two years. It leaves Biden’s major achievements, from the Inflation Reduction Act to student loan cancellation, intact DARK Brandon strikes again…………lol
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What’s funny is that no one thought that Republicans would do anything and we were right. It’s a uniparty. Trump is a helluva spender as well. Makes me wonder what your anxiety re federally elected Republicans is really about, because it’s not about cutting government size or spending.
Anyhoo, as always glad you’re here and appreciate your comments.
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Biden actually does come out of this looking pretty good as he comes off as the moderate who got both parties to come together to pass the deal in the traditional manner.
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jnc:
Biden actually does come out of this looking pretty good as he comes off as the moderate who got both parties to come together to pass the deal in the traditional manner.
Got both sides to come together? He is one of the “sides”. Anyone who sees Biden as the mediator between two sides doesn’t really understand what is going on.
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He’s always been the moderate in the room and not interested in spiking the football. I can’t believe I’m saying this but I think, from my perspective, he’s actually one of the most effective presidents in my lifetime. Guess I won’t question his age anymore. He seems to be the normal one in the room and was actually able to bring McCarthy along with him……………weird!!!
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Trust me, McCarthy and House Republicans were more than willing to come aboard. All fighting is pure kabuki and, sadly, always has been. Name a Federal government program that’s ever been scaled back, I cannot.
At some point you’ll acknowledge there is only one party.
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At some point you’ll acknowledge there is only one party.
Depends on how you look at it. There is a uniparty when it comes to things like the constant expansion of government spending and government power. There’s some disagreement about how much taxes certain people should pay, though.
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lms:
He’s always been the moderate in the room
Which just shows how truly radical you are. The Biden admin thinks that a man can be a woman simply by declaring himself one, and that Title IX mandates that men be allowed to participate in women’s college sports and shower in women’s locker rooms on college campuses. And to you this is “moderate”.
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The big picture:
“Federal Spending Up 40 Percent Since 2019
By Chris Edwards
Federal spending jumped from $4.45 trillion in 2019 to $6.21 trillion in 2023, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That is a 40 percent increase in four years. The pandemic supercharged the federal budget, and spending and deficits are expected to continue rising unless policymakers pursue major reforms.
What is all the new spending since 2019? The answer is surprising, as shown in the two tables below. The main drivers of the recent increases have not been the largest three programs—Social Security, Medicare, and defense—but rather rapid growth in numerous other programs.”
https://www.cato.org/blog/federal-spending-40-2019
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Even The Atlantic admits it now:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/dei-training-initiatives-consultants-companies-skepticism/674237/
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He completely ignores the CEI scoring and ESG prodding behind it.
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Interesting read:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/thomas-massie-saved-the-economy-and-kevin-mccarthy.html
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Opps:
“House Republican leaders are trying to stave off another wave of GOP defections just hours before a final vote on a deal to avert a national default — this time over the work requirements for aid programs that Republican leaders have publicly touted as a win for their party.
The latest rebellion was spurred by a Congressional Budget Office report released Tuesday night that estimates spending on the food aid program that Republicans attempted to cut during the debt ceiling negotiations would actually increase under the agreement reached by Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden.
…
In addition to expanding the age group of people on food aid subject to work requirements, the deal to raise the debt ceiling creates new exemptions from work requirements for veterans, homeless people and those aging out of the foster care system — something the White House pushed for in the negotiations. CBO analysts found that those series of work requirement changes will collectively increase spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the nation’s largest anti-hunger program for low-income people, by $2.1 billion.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/31/mccarthy-tries-to-hold-off-last-minute-rebellion-over-work-requirements-in-debt-deal-00099502
Congratulations Republicans. You played yourselves.
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Lol! Color me not shocked.
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Purely a coincidence.
https://redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2023/05/31/merrick-garlands-doj-takes-aim-at-jim-justice-and-the-timing-absolutely-should-be-questioned-n754340
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