Morning Report: Another benign inflation report

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,13115.5
Oil (WTI)82.86-0.41
10 year government bond yield 3.39%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 6.33%

Stocks are higher this morning after another benign inflation report. Bonds and MBS are up.

The producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, fell 0.5% in March. The decline was driven by a 5.1% decrease in energy prices. The core rate, which strips out food, energy and trade services rose 0.1%. The Street was looking for a flat number, so the decline was a positive surprise.

Initial jobless claims inched higher, rising to 239k. Claims are moving higher, although we are still at extremely low levels if you look at historical numbers

The FOMC minutes were released yesterday. The Silicon Valley Bank situation was still new, but the committee was still focused primarily on inflation:

Participants agreed that the U.S. banking system remained sound and resilient. They commented that recent developments in the banking sector were likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. Participants agreed that the extent of these effects was uncertain. Against this Federal Open Market Committee background, participants continued to be highly attentive to inflation risks…

Many participants remarked that the incoming data before the onset of the banking sector stresses had led them to see the appropriate path for the federal funds rate as somewhat higher than their assessment at the time of the December meeting. After incorporating the banking-sector developments, participants indicated that their policy rate projections were now about unchanged from December…

With inflation still well above the Committee’s longer run goal of 2 percent, participants agreed that inflation was unacceptably high. Participants commented that recent inflation data indicated slower-than-expected progress on disinflation. In particular, they noted that revisions to the price data had indicated less disinflation at the end of last year than had been previously reported and that inflation was still quite elevated.

Bonds rallies slightly on the FOMC minutes, but nothing dramatic.

United Wholesale is offering 1% down loans. If the borrower brings 1% down, UWM will fill in the other 2%, up to $4,000. “We are bringing back the Conventional 1% Down to give independent mortgage brokers a competitive edge with borrowers and real estate agents, while also helping make homeownership more affordable and accessible for borrowers across the country,” said Mat Ishbia, president and CEO of UWM. “We’re going to continue developing products and solutions that will help get more borrowers into homes faster, easier and cheaper and Conventional 1% Down is a great example of how we’re doing that.”

The program is limited to people who are at or below 50% of the area median income. I suspect affordability constraints are going to make it difficult for borrowers under 50% of AMI to qualify.

21 Responses

  1. My God, the misogyny in the Arizona legislature is breathtaking!

    This will cause a blowback against Republicans in Arizona, no doubt!


    • Democracy is clearly in peril.

      Worth noting:

      “The resolution to expel Harris was approved by a 46-13 vote. It needed a minimum of 40 votes, two-thirds of the GOP-controlled House, to pass.

      Eighteen Republicans, including Speaker Ben Toma and Majority Leader Leo Biasiucci, joined 28 Democrats in voting to oust Harris. One Democrat did not vote.”


      • Notice they didn’t throw out any cis white males.


      • Undoubtedly the progressive justification would be:

        In Arizona, the fact that R’s joined with D’s to oust an R proves that the charge was deserved and not political. In Tennessee, the fact that the D’s did not join with R’s to oust a D proves that the charge was obviously political and not deserved.


  2. Looks like the Republicans were right when they said that the Democrats wanted to cover illegal immigrants with Obamacare.


  3. This is pretty hilarious. It is akin to Erich Honecker travelling to West Germany and warning about how “authoritarian” it is there and how its leadership wants to destroy freedom. Does anyone actually fall for this nonsense?


  4. J, are you and NoVa hearing this?

    I don’t know how Cornyn, Barrasso or Thune would be better than McConnel, they all voted for the Omnibus.


  5. Surprising exactly no one.

    Thought Biden and the Russians saved NATO? This has me deeply confused. Next you’ll be telling me Tawain is not meeting their recruiting goals.



  6. JFC.


  7. I have some questions about that DOD leak.

    1. Who leaked it to the media. As far as I’ve been able to tell, it was shared between some fairly close knit online groups, not the kind of places monitored by even the most “moderate”
    MSM reporter.

    The only entity that would be capable of sweeping all internet traffic using keyword search and the capabilities to analyze such info would be the NSA? So, if it wasn’t leaked by some teen gamer why would the NSA leak it?

    2. Why did John Kirby ask the media not to disseminate the information?

    3. Why did Biden say he’s not worried about the leak due to it not being contemporary. If so, why not declassify it?

    4. If it cannot be declassified because of risks re “sources and methods” then why isn’t Biden worried about it?


  8. Prepare for more Seditious Conspiracy cases!


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