Morning Report: Manufacturing declines

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures3,88323.75
Oil (WTI)79.38-0.89
10 year government bond yield 3.75%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 6.51%

Stocks are higher as we start the new year. Bonds and MBS are up.

The week ahead will contain some important economic data, with the ISM data and the jobs report on Friday. Given that Jerome Powell’s focus has been the surprisingly strong jobs report, I could see a situation where bad news is good news – i.e. a weak report would trigger a rally in stocks and bond as it would increase the chances that the Fed will pivot from a tight monetary policy to a neutral one.

Jerome Powell discussed the three basic inputs to inflation. First, there are the supply chain issues, which manifested themselves early on in the pandemic. Second, there is housing which had its biggest impact beginning in 2022. Finally, there is services ex-housing, which basically means service sector wage growth. The supply chain issues have largely been fixed, and housing will probably fade by summer. The final component – services ex housing – is the focus of the Fed. Which means any negative news in the labor market will perversely be positive for the markets.

Manufacturing exhibited the fastest decline since May of 2020, according to the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index. “The manufacturing sector posted a weak performance as 2022 was brought to a close, as output and new orders contracted at sharper rates. Demand for goods dwindled as domestic orders and export sales dropped. Muted demand conditions also led to downward adjustments of stock holdings, as excess inventories built earlier in the year were depleted in lieu of further spending on inputs. With the exception of the initial pandemic period, stocks of purchases fell at the steepest rate since 2009. Sinking demand for inputs and greater availability of materials at suppliers led to a further easing of inflationary pressures. In fact, the rate of input price inflation fell below the series trend. Selling price hikes also eased, albeit still rising steeply. Slower upticks in inflation signal the impact of Fed policy on prices, but growing uncertainty and tumbling dem

27 Responses

  1. Worth noting:

    “Colorado governor plans to send migrants to New York, mayor says ”


  2. Does McCarthy stay in and grind down opposition with vote after vote or does he drop out after a few votes? Their’s been two votes already.

    My prediction is he stay’s in until he starts losing current support.


  3. Interesting read:


  4. Hugh Hewitt’s got his finger on the pulse of the base.

    That’ll do it!


  5. what a shitshow.

    it’s fantastic.


  6. It’s hard not to enjoy the spectacle. I don’t really have a dog in the fight other than I don’t mind establishment figures being antagonized.

    I don’t care who wins as nothing will happen anyway. I do hold out hope the debt ceiling either gets eliminated or we do not pass an extension. The beauty of brinksmanship is that sometimes you have to shoot the hostage, to mix some metaphors here.


  7. Drip, drip, drip

    “The quest of House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy to become speaker dragged on for a second day as Republican foes kept him from getting close to a majority of votes in another round of voting.

    Even a last-minute plea from former president Donald Trump for Republicans to unify around McCarthy (Calif.) failed to sway 20 Republicans — the same number who voted against McCarthy in the final of three ballots Tuesday. Instead, they backed a new alternative, Rep.-elect Byron Donalds, 44, a Black Republican who has represented a Florida district since 2021. One member voted present. ”


  8. Best outcome possible, even if it will never happen:

    “Former congressman Justin Amash — who served as a Republican before leaving for the Libertarian Party — is wandering around the House side of the Capitol and just offered himself as an alternative candidate for speaker, saying the defectors don’t “trust” Republican leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). “Whether anyone would ever consider me, I don’t even know that. But I think it’s important to be here and offer that opportunity,” he said.”


    • Lol! I’d go for Thomas Massie. Everyone asks the Never McCarthy’s what their game plan is but no one is asking McCarthy the same question. The 20 no votes have destroyed any career in the house unless they get an ally elected Speaker. I’m guessing they know that and therefore have no benefit by capitulating, so the question really seems to me to be what is McCarthy going to do?


  9. “House Republicans Frantically Binge Old ‘Schoolhouse Rock’ Episodes To Figure Out What They’re Supposed To Be Doing”

    “Republican Approval Rating At Record High After Bringing Congress To Grinding Halt”


    • jnc:

      “Republican Approval Rating At Record High After Bringing Congress To Grinding Halt”

      I was actually thinking this earlier. If the House can’t do anything until a Speaker is elected, I am all for this carrying on until the next election.


  10. Now that is power, the ability to tank the global economy.


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