Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 3,981 | 20.00 |
| Oil (WTI) | 89.49 | 3.03 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 3.81% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 6.73% |
Stocks are higher on follow-through after yesterday’s inflation print. Bonds and MBS are closed for the Veteran’s Day holiday.
Yesterday’s lower-than-expected consumer price index ignited a powerful rally in stocks and bonds yesterday. Now that we have had a day to settle in, let’s take a look at the Fed Funds futures.
The December 2022 FF futures now see a 85% chance of a 50 basis point hike and a 15% chance of a 75 basis point hike. If we hike 50 basis points, then the Fed Funds target rate will be between 4.25% and 4.5%. The December 2023 Fed Funds futures have a wide range of possibilities, however the central tendency is for the final Fed Funds rate to be between 4.25% and 4.5%. The second most common bet is between 4.5% and 4.75%.
Assuming these forecasts are correct, it would mean that the Fed should signal that its dramatic series of rate hikes is finished, and it will wait to see how the data shakes out. We will get one more PCE report and one more CPI report before the December meeting.
Mortgage related stocks were elated on the news yesterday. Mortgage REITs like Annaly Capital jumped 10%. AGNC Investment rose by a similar amount. Originators like Rocket rose 11%. Don’t forget that MBS spreads are extremely wide compared to historical levels. MBS spreads have been pushing 2%, while the historical norm has been around 80 basis points. This means that if the 10 year stays here, at say 3.8%, and MBS spreads return to normal, that would mean mortgage rates can fall another 100 basis points from here, which would imply a sub 6% mortgage rate.
A sub 6% mortgage rate probably won’t move the needle on the refi market, but it will do a lot on the affordability front. That said, there is a psychological anchoring effect going on, where people remember rates above 7% and will think a rate with a 5% handle is low. Given that HELOCs are still not being offered by a lot of big lenders, the cash-out debt consolidation loan could become in vogue again.
While there is lots of talk about a potential recession, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast sees 4% growth in the fourth quarter. This would be extremely rapid growth, however it seems out of step with other forecasts.
This seems surprising given that we are seeing layoff announcements from companies like CH Robinson, which is a logistics company that is sort of a barometer of overall growth. Amazon is looking at cutting costs, which seems strange given that we are heading into the holiday shopping season. I am wondering if the Atlanta Fed is getting some sort of strange reading based on the dollar or inventory build and this will get revised downward later.
Consumer sentiment fell in November, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Sentiment for durable goods fell pretty dramatically. Inflationary expectations were unchanged, which is good news for the market, with short run expectations coming in around 5% and longer-term expectations at 3%. Sentiment fell 8.7% compared to October and 19% from a year ago. This is yet another data point that doesn’t square with the Atlanta Fed forecast.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Megan McArdle covering Redfin:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/10/housing-market-decline-mortgage-rates-united-states/
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I suspect she lives in the DC area, which had a hell of a good run based on the growth of government and some tech companies. I wonder if these tech companies are maturing, and the growth isn’t there any more.
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Nate Cohn on the election results:
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Well, I feel better, don’t you?
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I don’t trust the left further than I can throw them any more.
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I forgot that DeSantis only won by .4 percent in 2014.
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Perhaps Florida voters were unique in not hearing about the extreme R position on abortion.
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I think this is explained by McWing’s theory. If Republicans play the vote harvesting game they can win too.
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Agreed. R’s have to stop complaining about the loosening up of voting laws, and start taking advantage of them.
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This is good (and could work):
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Is this your first embrace for secession? If so, welcome!
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I find those terms completely acceptable.
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I’ll bet Western Canada has no interest in joining.
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Yet again, men are better than women even at being women!
https://www.weaselzippers.us/486991-biological-male-wins-miss-america-pageant-in-new-hampshire/
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I just saw a video from Cleveland Clinic about prostate cancer featuring a chick.
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The interesting thing to note about the beauty contest is that quite literally the only reason the guy won it was precisely because he was a guy and not a girl. Any actual girl/woman who looked like that wouldn’t get anywhere near a beauty contest trophy.
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But it’s got a great personality.
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Which is painfully obvious.
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Addadicktome tranny or a Cutadickoffofme one?
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don’t know. That said, the model was way too young to have to worry about it.
But yes, no part of society can be exempted from the lecturing hordes, not even old men
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This is a fascinating thread and reinforces my dislike for the current Republican leadership.
That said, I guarantee that there is rough play even from the best leadership when it comes to recruitment and clearing the field. I wouldn’t be so judge-mental except for the fact that the leadership and is it’s currently constituted absolutely hates their base.
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Assuming abortion explains 2022, the left isn’t going to have an issue like that in 2024. I think this year was the max effect of it.
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I think that depends on the Republicans. If they campaign on abortion or state candidates are on the ballot with initiatives to ban or restrict abortion, it would probably continue to have an impact. If their focus is on addressing other issues (and maybe having plans they can articulate, and an explanation as to why their plans will work) then abortion won’t matter at all.
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True, at this point, just stfu about it.
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This, but I’m not sure if the activists will allow that.
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It’s about fucking time!
(Please go to trannies, please go to trannies)
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the patriarchy strikes again!
ESG + government spending = utopia.. but we need a “national conversation” about corporate spending and politics.
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Suckers!
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No one should be at all surprised by that.
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The ironic thing is I suspect one of the reasons he’s doing that is to keep the migrants out.
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From one of the main exit polls:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bowmanmarsico/2022/11/09/the-2022-exit-polls-a-z/?sh=2a1615cc2234
Gary Langer, ABC’s ace survey analyst, points out that in the NEP “women were 11 points more apt than men to cite abortion as their top issue, but women did not turn out, nor vote Democratic, in larger than usual numbers.”
Which means that, if abortion was a driving factor of Democratic voting, it wasn’t women making the the difference. Another victory for “women” provided by men!
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Don’t know what the source for this is but it’s interesting.
It’s also proof of Friedman’s theorem:
“I do not believe that the solution to our problem is simply to elect the right people, the important thing is to establish a political climate of opinion which will make it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing. Unless it is politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing, the right people will not do the right thing either, or if they try, they will shortly be out of office.”
The ultimate irony was that the Democrats utter hostility to Trump drove him to enact policies he otherwise would not have.
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“The ultimate irony was that the Democrats utter hostility to Trump drove him to enact policies he otherwise would not have.”
No, I’d say it was other things:
1. He didn’t actually care that much about policy, aside from immigration & trade policy with China, so he turned most of over to Ryan & McConnell who proceeded to do the regular round of tax cuts.
2. Steve Bannon lost the internal power struggle with Kushner.
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Lol!
Mistakes were made.
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what a shock.
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This intra party knife fight needs to happen and I want blood and bodies on the floor. Sadly, the Establishment will win. I’m hoping that Trump runs independent and the party splits.
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Just the assumption here that you guys think Kari Lake is speaking truth is very discouraging. Anywhoo, here’s another link y’all will hate but I have to keep trying, at least now and then.
Authoritarians need to make sure the public and politicians know that no one can avoid the leader’s punishment. That’s why DeSantis went after the Special Olympics, using his veto threat to impose a $27.5 million fine to prevent the organization from insisting on a Covid-19 vaccination mandate for its (medically vulnerable) athletes. That’s not the move you make if you care about being seen as decent, but it’s the move you make if you want to be feared.
The rallying of Republican elites around DeSantis means that Floridians will most likely serve as unpaid extras in a presidential dress rehearsal that will last through 2024. Look for DeSantis to double down on the autocratic ways that have paid off for him, not least by attracting powerful donors. DeSantis may be too polished to declare, as Trump did during his own presidential campaign, that he could “stand on Fifth Avenue and shoot someone” and get away with it. Yet the governor’s statement in his victory speech that “Florida is where woke goes to die” is chilling. It is a declaration of war on all Americans who support reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, freedom of education — and voting rights, the bedrock of democracy.
Here’s the author’s bio.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat
Ruth Ben-Ghiat is a historian and commentator on authoritarianism and propaganda. She is a professor of history and Italian studies at New York University, the recipient of Guggenheim, Fulbright and other fellowships and an adviser to Protect Democracy. She is a regular contributor to MSNBC, CNN and other media outlets. She publishes Lucid, a newsletter about threats to democracy. Her latest book, “Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present” (2020), looks at how illiberal leaders use propaganda, corruption, violence and machismo and how they can be defeated.
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/ron-desantis-follows-donald-trumps-authoritarian-footsteps-rcna56505
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“Just the assumption here that you guys think Kari Lake is speaking truth”
Who said that? I have no opinion on Kari Lakes truthiness on any particular issue.
“here’s another link y’all will hate”
You can read minds and see the future! 😂
I don’t hate it but I also don’t agree with the tone, implications, or conclusions. And don’t find it particular insightful and certainly not objective. But thanks!
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Why is it you assume any politician speaks the truth?
Plus, didn’t you say a while back that no one would ever claim that someone would be worse than Trump?
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lms:
Sorry, I can’t take seriously anyone who uses the euphemism “reproductive rights”, nor anyone who lumps LGBTQ together as if it is some singular entity with a singular common interest. The woman is a bog-standard progressive saying bog-standard progressive things. She has zero insights, as far as I can tell.
(Still to this day I have literally no idea who the Q even refers to. Do you?)
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Q stands for Queer which apparently means gay but ambiguously so. Just definitely not straight.
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More of an aesthetic than an orientation.
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KW:
Yeah, I know that Q stands for Queer. I just don’t know what that means. And to be honest, I don’t think anyone else does either.
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That’s the point. 😀
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lms:
Just the assumption here that you guys think Kari Lake is speaking truth is very discouraging.
It isn’t clear to me what you are trying to say here. (Who is assuming we think Kari Lake is speaking the truth, besides you? And if you find that assumption discouraging, then just stop assuming it!). But I went back and looked at every mention of Lake here by anyone, and there is nothing that I can see that indicates that anyone thinks she is speaking the truth.
Why are you making this assumption about what we think?
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I’m going to assume she’s saying lots of stuff that would need to be evaluated, based on the fact she’s a politician, has been all over the map in her life, and seems a little Trump-centric. If I lived in Arizona I’d much rather have her as governor than Hobbs but that not directly connected to “speaking truth” as that’s not a major feature of any politician, IMO.
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“using his veto threat to impose a $27.5 million fine to prevent the organization from insisting on a Covid-19 vaccination mandate for its (medically vulnerable) athletes.”
Nothing prevents the athletes from getting vaccinated if they want to. Based on current evidence, I see no need for a vaccine mandate and in fact they are being rolled back in blue states. Refusing to mandate something strikes me as the opposite of “authoritarian”.
Also, I don’t buy the implied argument that being in a wheelchair somehow makes you more vulnerable to COVID.
“The broader LGBTQ population has been targeted by his Parental Rights in Education Act, commonly referred to as the “Don’t Say Gay” law, which bans instruction about sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through third grade.”
DeSantis is completely right here. Even Bill Maher admitted it.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/bill-maher-dont-say-gay-florida-education-bill
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jnc:
Refusing to mandate something strikes me as the opposite of “authoritarian”.
Half of the things progressives say are actually the opposite of how they are characterized. Recall how Dobbs was presented as a somehow an anti-democratic ruling?
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Considering the “vaccine” does not prevent the spread of Covid, and no evidence that it even might was ever presented, and considering that there really isn’t evidence that this “therapy” even ameliorates the illness, it’s was a smart decision based on the evidence presented then or now.
Serious question – what, beside appeals to a very dubious authority, justified implementing a vaccine mandate in the first place?
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McWing:
Serious question – what, beside appeals to a very dubious authority, justified implementing a vaccine mandate in the first place?
Democrat politicians are not a dubious authority! They are truth tellers, don’t you know?
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You’re right, plus they fucking love science.
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“Serious question – what, beside appeals to a very dubious authority, justified implementing a vaccine mandate in the first place?”
It reduced the death rate.
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In what ways is there clinical proof of that, where control for improved care techniques (like no longer ventilating, having patients sleep on their stomachs, other Covid variants, Regeneron’s antibody treatment, etc.)? In all sincerity I haven’t seen that. I know that at least one of the Pfizer “boosters” was approved without any clinical evidence. What I’ve seen, and I could absolutely be wrong here, does not establish a link between receiving the Moderna/Pfizer/JnJ shot and lower death rates when all other factors are controlled.
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jnc:
It reduced the death rate.
I’m not sure the mere fact of a reduced death rate (if that is true) justifies it. Prohibiting all left hand turns in cars would reduce the death rate from car accidents. Does that justify such a prohibition?
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That should be determined by a cost benefit analysis. But as a justification, it’s real and not just “appeals to a very dubious authority”.
Glenn Greenwald pointed out that one of the more frustrating aspects of COVID was the way it became a exercise in puritanism and thereby rational cost benefit analysis of the actual science went out the window in favor of making it one more aspect of the culture wars.
But preventing the spread of a contagion like COVID or something worse through mandates and quarantines has always been one of the exceptions to most libertarian limitations on government.
As NoVA put it one time (prior to COVID), he would limit federal public spending to the military and the CDC.The fact that we probably need a better CDC doesn’t change the underlying arguments about where the right to be left alone starts and ends.
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jnc:
That should be determined by a cost benefit analysis.
Agreed.
But preventing the spread of a contagion like COVID or something worse through mandates and quarantines has always been one of the exceptions to most libertarian limitations on government.
Quarantines of actually sick people, yes. But I’m not so sure libertarians have ever been on board with mandated vaccination of healthy people.
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The word “authoritarian” means nothing more than “some policy that the left doesn’t like”
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Saddam Hussein’s Weapons on amass Destruction and the Dr.’s and Plans that you liked and were told you could keep were not available for comment.
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Freaking Uniparty.
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This thread is interesting but this particular statement makes me VERY happy if it’s true. Any body more legal minded willing to agree?
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Lol!
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I agree with Wajahat, it’s bad when a racial group votes as a block.
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As a voting bloc, progressive black women think ostracizing white women and black men and religious Muslims and Hispanics and Orthodox Jews is a great idea. Not sure that’s true.
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Follow the science, yo.
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Sam seems fine with the notion.
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of course he is. Seceding from the Borg is a mortal sin for the left.
But it shows you just how much the Borg is lining up against it. Free speech scared the bejeezus out of them.
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That sounds a bit like a threat.
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Thou Shalt Not Defy The Borg.
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This Dallas/GB game is not bad.
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You guys are all too prolific for me and I have no time to read all your links and comments……………I’m sure they’re all interesting though……….LOL
Walter is on my mind and in my work everyday………………if you’re O’Neg hope you’ll donate……………he needs it……………..Yikes
This won’t make a difference but I saw the movie “Till” today and even though I was 5 when he was killed, I remember what came after. I guess I don’t really understand why any one of us can forget our history re……black Americans…………….we should be ashamed! Why not admit it???
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Prayers for Walter, LMS!!
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lms:
we should be ashamed! Why not admit it???
You cheapen the essence of shame when you insist that people own it regarding things they did not do and over which they have/had no control. Speak for yourself, not for “we”.
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Exactly
My ancestors were subsistence farmers in Eastern Europe when slavery was going on. Leave me alone.
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“Why not admit it???”
Because collective guilt is an illiberal concept.
Now, as ongoing entities it’s perfectly appropriate to hold governments to account for failures of law and justice in the past, but I believe that’s already been done here. In fact, Mississippi recently tried to prosecute one of the few people involved who is still alive.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/us/emmett-till-carolyn-bryant-no-indictment-reaj/index.html
Also, I don’t think anyone has “forgotten” anything regarding the past. The debate, as always, is over what lessons you take from it. As Obama himself noted, pretending nothing has changed since the 1960’s in the South is simply dishonest.
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