Morning Report: Home Prices decline in July

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures3,71444.25
Oil (WTI)78.281.51
10 year government bond yield 3.89%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 6.72%

Stocks are rebounding after yesterday’s bloodbath. Bonds and MBS are down again.

The FHFA House Price index fell 0.6% MOM in July, but is still up 13.9% on a YOY basis. This index only looks at mortgages within the conforming loan limits, so it is more centered on the median home since it ignores the luxury market and cash-only transactions.

“U.S. house price index posted its first month-over-month decrease in July since May 2020 when the U.S. economy experienced lockdowns as a result of COVID-19. This decline was widespread as eight of the nine census divisions saw a decrease,” said Will Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The 12-month change in house prices remains at historically high rates, but the rate of growth continues to moderate across all census divisions.”

The actual FHFA house price index number for July was 395.2. The index level at the end of September 2021 was 353.6. So, if we were to reset the new conforming loan limit for 2023 today, it would come out to $723,341.

This means if the FHFA House Price index declines another 1.1% between August and September, those originators who are funding loans up to $715k in anticipation of the new 2023 limits might have a problem on their hands.

The rise in mortgage rates has more homebuyers backing out of deals. This is most prevalent in some of the hottest markets in the Sun Belt and Florida.

“Some homebuyers are finding that by the time they go under contract and lock in their mortgage rates, rates could be much higher than they were when they toured the home and/or got pre-approved. That can kill the deal because the buyer is no longer financially comfortable with the purchase,” said Sam Chute, a Redfin real estate agent who works with sellers in Miami. “I advise sellers to price their homes competitively based on the current market because deals are falling through and buyers are no longer willing to pay pie-in-the-sky prices.”

Durable Goods orders fell 0.2% MOM in August according to the Census Bureau. July’s numbers were revised downwards. Ex-transportation they rose, and core capital goods orders (a proxy for business capital investment) increased as well.

31 Responses

  1. It’s different, see.


  2. I’m thinking about this myself!

    Gun sales in one of the country’s few black-owned gun shops, Redstone Firearms in Burbank, California, soared post-pandemic and have remained steady, according to co-owner Jonathan Solomon.

    “It’s not just one demographic. It’s not just one ethnic group. There’s just not one level of income… it’s a wide variety of folks that come in here now,” he said.

    While white men have the highest rates of gun ownership in the US, one survey shows that in the first half of 2021 roughly 90% of retailers saw a surge in gun sales to African Americans. The same survey found that about 80% of retailers reported an increase in firearm purchases by Hispanic and Asian Americans.

    Solomon, a former police officer, opened the shop about nine years ago with his wife Geneva. He says his new, diverse customers are primarily buying their first gun for a shared reason: self-protection. But he warns them to pay close attention to the rapidly changing regulations on firearms.

    “It’s a consistent education when it comes to gun laws, especially in California,” Solomon said.

    California is consistently rated among the states with the toughest gun laws. There are strict policies aimed at dissuading hasty gun purchases, including a 10-day cooling off period from when you buy a gun to when you can take it out of the store. And getting a concealed carry permit in places like Los Angeles can take more than a year and include background checks and interviews.

    “It’s really convenient to think that if we just ban an object, if we just ban guns, then all of our problems would be solved – all of society’s problems would be solved – but that’s not true,” said firearms instructor Nguyen.

    Nguyen said more and more residents are willing to put in the time and go through the hurdles to legally buy and carry a gun. And he says most of his clients support tough gun regulation so long as there’s clarity, consistency and still a path toward legal gun ownership. He only hopes they incorporate education and training into that process.

    “I want to de-stigmatize lawful and responsible gun ownership,” Nguyen said.


    • let me guess, the left is hoping that white conservative men will get scared of women and minorities buying guns and therefore support gun control.

      hope springs eternal. conservatives don’t care if liberals buy guns.


      • I very much welcome seeing more women and minorities who own guns, because I think it means there will be fewer Dem voters.


      • All for women and minorities buying guns. And plenty of them. Why would any one remotely on the right (or even classical liberals) have any objection to women and minorities legally owning firearms?


        • because the script the left runs doesn’t contemplate anything outside of the race / gender box.

          They can’t fathom that position. Too much cognitive dissonance.


    • lms:

      I’m thinking about this myself!

      Given what the Dems are doing to any place where they have power, I would think that most sensible people in Blue areas would be thinking about getting a gun.

      What would be even more sensible would be making sure it ceased being a blue area.


    • You may find that you enjoy going to the gun range and the people that you meet there.


      • LOL, I live next to a gun range and most of my neighbors and a few friends own guns…………still not impressed but I do respect their right!


        • Everyone in my household has a taser that looks like and is a flashlight. That’s it. And that was the oldest daughter’s doing. But no guns. Never had and have never been trained on any guns … which I may regret one day but, oh well.


    • That’s good news, IMO. Hope it’s a trend that continues.


  3. Anyone here worried about this dynamic and some “R’s” supporting her?


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