Morning Report: Inflation data looms large this week

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures4,10821.5
Oil (WTI)88.481.72
10 year government bond yield 3.29%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.96%

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

The upcoming week will be dominated by the consumer price index report tomorrow and the producer price index on Wednesday. On Friday, we will get the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey which should include inflation expectations. There will be no Fed-speak this week as we are in the quiet period ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.

The Fed Funds futures see a 88% chance of a 75 basis point hike next week. The impact of 225 basis points in rate hikes (75 in June, July and September) hasn’t even begun to be felt. We could be looking at a major slowdown at the end of the year.

The Atlanta Fed GDP Now index now sees 1.3% growth in the third quarter.

Note that we will get retail sales this week, which should contain the back-to-school spending numbers. BTS is generally a good predictor of the holiday shopping season.

22 Responses

  1. What’s your take on this Brent & Scott?

    Like

    • It will be interesting to see how the Fed will be able to reduce its footprint in the market.

      The Fed has equity of something like $42 billion and assets of 8.9 trillion. This is a leverage ratio of 212x.

      It will be interesting to see the public opinion when the Fed starts losing money.

      Like

  2. Interesting read:

    “Beware Ryan Cohen, the Meme-Stock King
    By Jen Wieczner”

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/09/ryan-cohen-bed-bath-and-beyond-stock.html

    Like

  3. It’s getting more awesome!

    https://dnyuz.com/2022/09/12/justice-dept-seizes-phones-of-top-trump-aides-in-jan-6-inquiry/

    We are mere weeks/months away from a Trump perp walk! Popcorn time for the aftermath!

    Like

    • Enjoy that “hard on Buddy”

      Like

      • I bet you’ll be jizzing on your computer screen soon! FABULOUS!

        Do you like me talking like that? Because it’s obscene honestly. I can do it too, but I’d rather not. I find it insulting and embarrassing, but I’ll match you tit for tat if that’s what you want!

        We can discuss differences without all the bullshit or not! Up to you guys!

        Like

        • In other environments I shitpost quite a bit. The Edgelording and dank memes can come fast and furious. The locker room talk, so to speak, can be quite … locker-roomy. A lady who can profanitize with Edgelordy humor is a treasure beyond price.

          But I apologize for McWing’s foul mouth an uncouth nature. Also my frequent use of the work f**k. Sorry!

          In the world of trolling and Shitposting, a chick who does tit for tat (while getting the subtleties of dank Shitposting without missing the general vibe) is a wonder beyond gold.

          But I insist McWing, moving forward, cease and desist in making reference to sexual effluent. Shame on you troll!

          😃

          Like

        • Well honestly also that is mostly George and sometimes me. JNC and Scott are innocent of such potty-mouthed backroom shittalking. And nobody demonstrates the decorum of Mark.

          Like

      • He’s gotta be taking supplements are something, I’m 52 and I think it’d take two super models giving me warm soapy shower while an audible stock ticker quotes my rapidly increasing wealth while I could smell the wagu steak my chef was cooking for my kitchen. To match McWing’s viagra-infused tent poles.

        Like

      • Speaking of which, I’ve got a metaphorical woody for something truly awesome: Cobra Kai!

        I’ve been watching Cobra Kai season 5. Damn I love this show. This show is awesome. I love the world where everything centers on Karate and there’s all these people who want to take over the Valley. It’s all absurd and yet also the best show on television.

        I love old guys doing karate and beating the shit of a lot of young kids. Gen X nostalgia fantasy for old fuddy duddies.

        The show is brilliant. That is all. Absurd and in some ways ridiculous but also unapologetic and brilliant.

        Like

  4. I can’t wait either!

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    • I’m guessing Biden’s polling isn’t great in Arizona when polled by private firms who are paid to actually get it right? Unlike most of the polls repeated in the press where they are paid to get it wrong and often lose gigs if they are getting it right and the press doesn’t like what accurate polling says.

      Like

  5. This broad has cracked the code I think.

    I expect the elimination of gun crime in NYC with weeks if not days.

    Kudos, New York!

    Like

    • McWing:

      I expect the elimination of gun crime in NYC with weeks if not days.

      Classic emotion over logic.

      Like

      • It mystifies me that anybody thinks that’s true. No data supports it. Logic doesn’t support it. The circumstances around gun crime are clearly not addressable by preventing legal carry. If the problem was middle class citizens getting in fights and shooting each other with their legal guns then, yes, this would make sense. But that’s not what causes gun crime. And it’s not a secret. It’s not hard to see.

        The only explanation is that these folks are functionally in a cult.

        Like

  6. The Quickening!

    It’s happening! Imma need a needle to drain!!

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    • No more of your potty my mouth, McWing!!

      😇

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      • I sense you’re making fun of me Kevin! I get it. I know I don’t really belong here anymore which is really honestly fine with me.

        I’m hoping someone can delete me from the list of contributors. We are all so far apart that there is really no going back to our goals when we began this weird adventure and honestly, I’d rather not be associated with what is left of our grand idea!

        America has become a divided country with very little middle ground or compromise between ideologies. I’m to blame too. I think we all are………..we stopped listening and started holding on to grudges and past mistakes. That doesn’t work in families and it doesn’t work in a country either.

        Just let me get out of this space now that I’ve turned it over to Scott.

        I bid you all adieu!

        Like

        • Gentle ribbing! Not trying to be rude. Or make any but the gentlest of fun. And also harass McWing.

          “I know I don’t really belong here anymore which is really honestly fine with me.”

          That’s your decision. I don’t think disagreement should mean “we cannot breathe the same air, for it is befouled with some other person’s incorrect opinions”. So I don’t want you (or anyone else) to go, but I also get that there are, um, stylistic differences as well as political differences and we are all hardwired to invest our energies into tribes we feel are more generally aligned.

          I find it ironic as I don’t think our disagreements are particularly profound. The narcissism of small differences I suppose. I think all politicians are pretty much worthless. I definitely think there should be an age limit. I’m pro-choice and pro gay marriage. I’m pretty sure McWing is pro open borders and pro-choice. As is jnc4p and Mark …

          I dunno, I feel like we agree—or most of us do—on a lot of the fundamentals. More or less.

          “America has become a divided country with very little middle ground or compromise between ideologies.”

          True. But it’s also a decision individuals name for themselves. And they don’f have to go along with the crowd.

          “Just let me get out of this space now that I’ve turned it over to Scott.”

          Don’t all the contributors remain? Changing that fatal optimism would be very off brand.

          All the best!

          Like

      • Kevin, it doesn’t matter anymore……….you guys own this site now and you can all say whatever you want. I’m trying to exit so I won’t be a Debbie Downer………….LOL

        Can someone erase me from the list of contributors please????

        Like

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