Morning Report: More hawkish comments out of the Fed.

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures3,957-22.25
Oil (WTI)83.321.36
10 year government bond yield 3.26%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.95%

Stocks are lower after the European Central Bank raised rates by 75 basis points. Bonds and MBS are down small.

Jerome Powell is speaking this morning. The prepared remarks don’t seem to be on the Fed’s site yet.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester made hawkish comments yesterday.

We will need to move policy into a restrictive stance in order to put inflation on a sustained downward trajectory to 2 percent. That means that short-term interest rates adjusted for expected inflation, that is, real interest rates, will need to move into positive territory and remain there for some time. Right now, nominal short-term interest rates are lower than expected inflation, so short-term real interest rates are still negative and monetary policy is still accommodative. My current view is that it will be necessary to move the nominal fed funds rate up to somewhat above 4 percent by early next year and hold it there; I do not anticipate the Fed cutting the fed funds rate target next year. But let me emphasize that this is based on my current reading of the economy and outlook. While it is clear that the fed funds rate needs to move up from its current level, the size of rate increases at any particular FOMC meeting and the peak fed funds rate will depend on the inflation outlook, which depends on the assessment of how rapidly aggregate demand and supply are coming back into better balance and price pressures are being reduced.

The Fed funds futures still see an end-of-year Fed funds rate of 3.75% – 4.0% and project that rate holding steady through July of 2023.

Freedom just did another round of layoffs and it looks like they are pushing their ops largely overseas. The wholesale division took the brunt of the layoffs. The company has a contract with an offshoring company that has loans processed and underwritten in either India or the Philippines.

Home prices declined in July, according to Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor. The median home price fell 0.77% in July, which was the worst single-month decline in prices since 2011. The declines should continue as housing affordability remains awful.

Black Knight thinks tappable equity probably peaked in May of this year. Note that prices generally follow a seasonal pattern, so some decline during the late summer / fall is normal.

30 Responses

  1. Completely innocent, y’all.

    Like

  2. The millennials think they have discovered something:

    “Humanity was stagnant for millennia — then something big changed 150 years ago

    Why the years from 1870 to 2010 were humanity’s most important.
    By Dylan Matthews
    Sep 7, 2022, 8:00am EDT”

    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/9/7/23332699/economic-growth-brad-delong-slouching-utopia

    “The Economist Who Knows the Miracle Is Over

    An era of remarkable prosperity has ended.
    By Annie Lowrey”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/brad-delong-economist-slouching-towards-utopia-book/671337/

    “then something big changed 150 years ago”

    It sure is a mystery what changed.

    [Insert best Dana Carvey Church Lady voice here]

    “Could it be….Capitalism?!”

    Like

    • Reminds me of Pikketty…. The economy barely grew up until the mid 1800s, but it then took off like a rocket.

      But that is a BAD thing because the majority of gains went to the top. Cause subsistence farmers had it better than a someone working as a waitress or factory worker.

      I have zero respect for marxist economists like delong. or marx lite dipshits like krugman and reich.

      Like

      • Yeah Brent, but what do you really think of these lefty economists?

        Like

      • I normally don’t think everybody needs to walk a mile in everybody else’s shoes , or that one course of life means you have nothing to say about things outside your direct experience … but I have no patience for rich people expounding sagely on the nobility of poverty. Or the sacrifices everybody must make that somehow won’t efffect them. So they have no skin in the game.

        Like

        • Here is the problem with academic economics, especially leftists. They are great at abstract thought, but they are typically dense around people.

          Which means they have at best a dim grasp of how profit-minded businesses make decisions, simply because they can’t be modeled. And they are shocked when their policy prescriptions don’t have the effect they think they should.

          Like

  3. This from the NYT was actually pretty interesting. I would have framed it quite differently, and I am pretty sure that even the two guys who are in the video don’t actually understand the true source of the problems they highlight, but as a demonstration of the disconnect between the things limousine liberals claim to believe and they way they actually organize and live their lives, it is pretty effective.

    Like

  4. Look, Jenn… can I call you Jenn? Look, show it to me then we’ll talk.

    And not that selfie crap that was hacked either, I’m talking 4k type stuff – Hustler, Penthouse. Tasteful but, you know, shows the goods.

    Like

  5. Oh my fucking God!

    Like

    • I find it difficult to understand how people can become so insular and incapable of empathy. Incapable of comparison. So lacking in self-awareness that they can complain about getting just a small taste of what is inflicted on others, in part because of their own disconnected “oh that sounds good” ideology.

      It is truly mind-boggling that they can behave like that, say such things, with no sense of irony.

      Like

    • “DC Mayor Muriel Bowser is declaring a public emergency over migrants being bused to DC from Texas and Arizona amid the ongoing border crisis.”

      Texas Governor Greg Abbot: “Mission Accomplished”.

      “and said they turned DC into a border town.”

      Welcome to Texas.

      One of the most effective political moves I’ve seen from the Republicans in a while.

      As you note George, sometimes the most effective response is to give people what they claim to want, good and hard.

      Like

    • More grist:

      Like

  6. Hard to argue.

    It’s entertaining as hell and a blast to watch. It’ll be a hoot when mainstreamer R’s get perp walked!

    I’m guessing there was a lot of D jizz on computer screens last night.

    Like

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