Morning Report: Data-light week ahead

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures3,94520.50
Oil (WTI)87.720.84
10 year government bond yield 3.26%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.87%

Stocks are up this morning as investors become more comfortable with risk assets after the jobs report. Bonds and MBS are down.

The upcoming week is relatively data-light, but we will have a lot of Fed-speak including Jerome Powell on Thursday. We won’t have any market-moving economic reports this week.

The housing market is “losing momentum” according to Wells Fargo. “There’s no question that the housing market has long lost momentum and continued to lose momentum in July,” Vitner told the Times in an article published Wednesday. “When we get the June, July, and August data, I think we’ll see substantially more weakness in the West, and probably more weakness across the country. It’s worse than it looks,” he added. “A lot of folks have underestimated how much of a shift we’ve seen in the housing market.”

The sale to list ratio fell below 100% for the first time since since March of 2021, as affordability constraints limit what buyers can pay. “While the cooldown appears to be tapering off, there are signs that there is more room for the market to ease,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “The post-Labor Day slowdown will likely be a little more intense this year than in previous years when the market was super tight. Expect homes to linger on the market, which may lead to another small uptick in the share of sellers lowering their prices. Homebuyers’ budgets are increasingly stretched thin by rising rates and ongoing inflation, so sellers need to make their homes and their prices attractive to get buyers’ attention during this busy time of year.”

You can see that prices are beginning to moderate.

The service economy improved in August, according to the ISM Services Index. Most notably, we saw an improvement in supplier deliveries and a deceleration in prices. “The Prices Index decreased for the fourth consecutive month in August, down 0.8 percentage point to 71.5 percent. Despite an improvement in inventory levels, services businesses still continue to struggle to replenish their stocks, as the Inventories Index contracted for the third consecutive month; the reading of 46.2 percent is up 1.2 percentage points from July’s figure of 45 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (47.1 percent, down 3 percentage points from July’s reading of 50.1 percent) moved back into contraction territory in August.” We aren’t out of the woods by any stretch, but we are starting to see anecdotal indications that inflation is subsiding.

34 Responses

    • LITERALLY Dred Scott!

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    • George, I need a ruling on which meltdown is bigger: Daily Kos or Plum Line?

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/06/trump-judge-mar-a-lago-documents-grim-future/

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    • Popehat isn’t a Trump fan at all, but he’s at least based in reality:

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      • Indeed. Reading the comments I find it interesting so many people focus on “Trump-appointed judged” and how the Judge must keep her handlers at the Federalist society happy … one gets the sense they assume every time they get the outcome they want, everybody involved is acting objectively and with the noblest principles. While any time they don’t get what they want, it’s all graft and corruption and so on.

        Yet I feel like I’m supposed to just to feel their explanation that “well, Trump appointed her and that’s the only possible reason the judge found in Trump’s favor again all” as sort of self-evident. The judge explained her decision. It seems perfectly valid.

        Also the assertions by Twitter experts that there is no such thing as executive privilege after you leave office.

        Has that been adjudicated? Is there no executive privilege historically? Where does executive privilege come from? Why should any president have it even when in office? I don’t know and I don’t think these folks do either: because such things are arbitrary, based on precedent and assertion and assumption. Saying “there’s no such thing as executive privilege after you leave office” is not a statement hard, cold fact. It’s an opinion. Not necessarily an unjustified one but still they act like they are reciting Mosaic law, not in fact expressing a preference rooted in their antipathy towards Trump.

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  1. Here we go:

    Remember, what goes around comes around. This is the threshold for being legally disqualified from holding office for insurrection:

    “In March, Judge Trevor N. McFadden, presiding at a bench trial in Federal District Court in Washington, found Mr. Griffin guilty of one misdemeanor count of illegally entering a restricted area at the Capitol and acquitted him of another that accused him of disorderly conduct. Mr. Griffin was sentenced in June to 14 days in prison.”

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    • 14 days in jail seems overly harsh too. especially given that BLM and antifa rioters were never prosecuted for violence and vandalism.

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    • That’s awesome! I hope more judges start trying to throw Republicans out of office for crimes they were not convicted of!

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      • The key is that insurrection now consists of being convicted of misdemeanor trespass of the Capitol (or presumably another government building) while trying to obstruct an official proceeding.

        I look forward to this standard being applied evenly in the future, say to people like this:

        https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/07/19/good-trouble-17-house-democrats-arrested-protesting-roe-reversal-supreme-court

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        • it will never happen. one side is permitted carte blanche to protest. the other side is not.

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        • I can’t make out what the goal there is. Is it to discourage potential insurrectionists or create more of them?

          Held indefinitely without trial? Going to jail? All discouraging?

          Constantly going on how the Jan 6th rioters almost toppled the country, that it was an almost-coup, that they almost changed the results of a Democratic election, that they are the biggest threat to America (this important and powerful) … that stuff is like a sales brochure to recruit insurrectionists.

          Would have so much more respect for them if they had just rapidly gotten the rioters processed, judged, and threw the book at them whenever possible.

          I guess the Jan 6th hearings and keeping so many rioters in limbo amongst a hundred other weird and squirrels things they have fine and are doing … I guess that works for some people. It doesn’t make me think they are serious or competent and makes me think all of the folks crying bloody murder about Jan 6th are pathological narcissists.

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        • the left SO wants a Reichstag fire.

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      • Those would be the objective, rational and unbiased judges who aren’t just corrupt Trump appointees cosseted bu the Federalist society, obviously.

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    • I have no problem with the conviction or the sentence. But all this should have been done two years ago and the administration should have said: “you come here, you riot, you go to jail. End of story. A bunch of yahoos were never going to overturn the election. Dumbasses.”

      This should have been treated as a riot, and then processed and dismissed. Making it such a huge existential crisis was the exactly wrong response. At every level.

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  2. It takes a heart of stone not to laugh.

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  3. Mueller’s chief deputy not taking Special Master ruling well.

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    • These clowns had (and have) real power. Thanks to Trump we know who they are and what they’re capable of and can act accordingly. Will the next Republican POTUS do so?

      My guess is no.

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      • Your guess is … well, obvious. It’s ultimately a uniparty, and the only things that disrupt it they either unite in war against (Trump) co-opt or marginalize or both (Bernie) … I don’t see enough of disruptive politicians gaining power to ever clean house.

        It could have been possible to some minor extent back when the press wasn’t owned by the state but that moment has passed.

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    • Do lawyers take an oath to show no favor to any party? Cause the left sure as hell has no compunction there.

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  4. Good Greenwood thread.

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    • It is maddening that the left believes in a Uniparty state but thinks they other guy is the fascist.

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      • Brent:

        It is maddening that the left believes in a Uniparty state but thinks they other guy is the fascist.

        Maddening is exactly what it is. But people who think that calling a man a woman literally makes him a woman are capable of believing pretty much anything.

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  5. They got him now!

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/06/trump-nuclear-documents/

    The first paragraph doesn’t even say if it was previously marked classified. Could have been a printed Wikipedia page.

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  6. The thing that cracks me up about this is there are literally no questions given to the veracity of the story, given all we know about government leaks and being lies. Also, the assumption, based on nothing really other than proximity to a description to Top Secret does is say that the item was ever previously classified. It goes out of its way not to claim it. It literally could be a wiki page, a newspaper article or a hand written note with a sentence like, I hope the Iranians don’t get nukes.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/6/2121209/-Trump-reportedly-had-documents-on-nuclear-capabilities-of-a-foreign-government-in-Mar-a-Lago-hoard

    Like

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