Morning Report: Jerome Powell heads to the Hill for another day of testimony

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures3,77817.82
Oil (WTI)106.380.24
10 year government bond yield 3.07%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.90%

Stocks are higher this morning as Jerome Powell heads to the Hill to testify in front of the House. Bonds and MBS are up.

Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to reducing inflation and said a recession is a possibility. “At the Fed, we understand the hardship high inflation is causing. We are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down, and we are moving expeditiously to do so,” the Fed chief said in remarks for the Senate Banking Committee. “We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. Over coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down, consistent with inflation returning to 2%,” Powell said. “We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate; the pace of those changes will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy.”

Despite the increase in interest rates, the employment market remains resilient. Initial Jobless Claims ticked down slightly to 229,000 last week, which is still historically very low.

The CFPB is reviewing the Non-QM rule. The CFPB’s Qualified Mortgage Rules to explore ways to spur streamlined modification and refinancing in the mortgage market, as well as assessing aspects of the “seasoning” provisions. The other thing probably worth exploring is the APOR / HPML issue and how it is applied in a period of rapidly rising interest rates.

The number of mortgages in forbearance fell last week to 0.85% from 0.94%. So far we are seeing scant evidence that the increase in interest rates and the weakening economy is having an effect on loan performance. “Servicers are whittling away at the remaining loans in forbearance, even as the pace of monthly forbearance exits slowed in May to a new survey low,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Most borrowers exiting forbearance are moving into either a loan modification, payment deferral or a combination of the two workout options.”

39 Responses

  1. SCOTUS is really dragging this out on the Dobbs abortion decision…still no release of the opinion today. Although they have announced there will be more releases tomorrow.


  2. I laugh that Biden’s team chooses today to push this given that with the SCOTUS 2nd Amendment ruling for New York the press is going to demagogue the living shit out of it.


    • i suppose i shouldn’t point out that if NY wants to eliminate carry altogether it can still do that. but jeez, these people just are just morons.


  3. Sounds insurrectiony to me.


    • The tweet is a good example of how genuinely unthinking progressives are about the Constitution and SCOTUS’s application of it.

      On guns, as on Roe, the initial reflex of Democratic lawmakers will be to propose bills that might serve as issue-specific workarounds to the Court’s decisions.

      The very point and effect of overturning Roe would be to return the issue to legislators. But this clown sees legislators doing what they exist to do as a “work around”.


      • That’s fascinating. The court’s role is adjudicate whether a law is constitutional—legislators should be writing the laws that it would then interpret. When a responsible court
        rightly indicates a previous court attempted to create law absent legislation, not interpret law constitutionally, that doesn’t require work around a but does suggest legislators should, you know, maybe try and write laws that pass constitutional muster in order the achieve their goals rather than hoping the courts give them their preferred outcomes by judicial fiat.


    • Also: fantasy. It’s insurrectional, sure, but also retarded because it isn’t going to happen. They aren’t going to abolish the court. The idea they will get rid of it entirely or pack it without the other side ever being able to do the same is nuts. And if planned would need to be done secretly, not on Twitter.


    • I would bet that 99.999% of these claims of violent threats against the left are as real as the Jussie Smollet hoax.


      • That’s fair. And some are “real” in the since that they are done by nuts who are nuts and not ideologues or doing it because there is something uniquely violent about the riot. I would never threaten anybody and even if I would I wouldn’t threaten anybody over the Jan 6th committee because it’s stupid and I don’t care about it.

        But there are trolls and nut cakes at the fringes of every issue.


    • Bait and switch, McWing! I went their expecting an article about how “people”were getting meaner and instead got an article about how the GOP is awful and conservatives are awful and MAGA-types are really awful. 😂


  4. Goddamn!


  5. Just to be clear here……………..I’m not impressed with the SC decisions on guns or Roe, but thank God I live in CA.

    Also, I’m curious if any of you are watching the Jan 6 committee hearings or is it just a witch hunt to you guys to be ignored. Interestingly enough…….most of the testimony comes from Trumps allies, or former allies/lawyers……………although a few said they would vote for him again. Today was of particular interest to me since it involved the DOJ pushing back against him (his appointees) while upholding the purpose and constitutionality of their job. One of his documented comments was particularly interesting………….”just claim fraud and let me and the R congress take it from there”. He knew he lost, and Barr (who many of you admired) and others at DOJ agreed but he still tried to install a Trump Toady to claim fraud and send it back to the state legislatures…………….specifically the ones he lost.

    Dudes……………I’m not a Biden fan but seriously, Trump tried to subvert the will of the people…………..and kept it up until at the end of all his efforts he sent his mob to threaten Pence.

    Is there another darker time in the history of our country you can recall or inform me of?

    FYI………… life is not my own right now and Walter is not doing well so if I miss your comments I apologize…..I like to keep you informed from my perspective……………but at the same time I know it’s not particularly interesting to any of you…………….so I just do the best I can………………someone needs to give a counter narrative………….just wish it was someone more equipped than me!


    • Is there another darker time in the history of our country you can recall or inform me of?



      • Sure………..I was born in 1950 so I remember lots of voting rights issues…………MLK died the day before my 18th birthday. Our neighbors were Jewish (I was their babysitter) and they lost their business in the riots. I was also a new mom during the Watergate hearings and spent a lot of time watching them. I also remember my best friend’s mother taking her to Mexico for an abortion and she nearly died………………I have a history of activism but AFAIK I’ve never tried to subvert the DOJ doing their jo9b


    • Not watching, don’t care. Already have heard the left’s narrative ad nauseum. I guess they think telling me again will make a difference. It won’t.

      On a scale of 1-10 where 1 is a plain old protest and 10 is a violent coup, it is a 1.2.

      Since the left controls the media, they control the official narrative and I can’t stop them if they want to sell the message that this was the darkest day in US history.

      But I don’t care what they say anymore.


      • It’s interesting that you think this is a Left narrative considering that the majority of witnesses are conservative. I guess it’s easy to deny reality if you’re a Trumper. If you’re not then Who are you???


        • It is a left narrative. I didn’t vote for Trump either time, so I am hardly a Trumper. With the panel only permitting a certain point of view it is is a narrative setting exercise, not a fact-finding one.

          Who knows what the incentives are of the Republicans that are testifying. Maybe this is the price they have to pay in order to work in DC any more. Suck up to the victors, atone for your sins and some such. Don’t know, don’t care.

          I know that an unarmed protest was not an attempted coup, and I don’t trust the left further than I can throw them about election integrity. They can insist until the cows come home that nothing was irregular and i don’t believe them. The statistics don’t pass the sniff test. And since the left demanded it be beyond the pale to even question anything it makes them look guilty as hell in my mind.

          Biden is president, hopefully gridlock returns and if the government doesn’t do a damn thing for the next few years, it is fine by me.


        • Brent:

          And since the left demanded it be beyond the pale to even question anything it makes them look guilty as hell in my mind.



        • I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 but I sure as heck voted for him in 2020. What has occurred since Biden’s victory completely justifies that vote in my mind.


        • This is definitely a left-leaning narrative. And the witnesses don’t control their own line of questioning.

          It’s also not a legitimate inquiry because one political side is 100% controlling it—meaning there’s no challenging of the basic assertions or pursuit of any line of questioning that deviates from the agreed-upon narrative.

          I honestly wouldn’t be that interested anyway. There was never any risk that the government would be overthrown. It was just another protest—primarily carried out by morons.

          I haven’t been watching TV at all anyway.


    • lms:

      Also, I’m curious if any of you are watching the Jan 6 committee hearings or is it just a witch hunt to you guys to be ignored.

      Again, I am not watching it because it is a political show trial.

      Is there another darker time in the history of our country you can recall or inform me of?


      August 24, 1814 (British invade DC and set fire to the White House)
      April 12, 1861 thru May 9, 1865 (Civil War)
      October 24, 1929 thru 1941 (The Great Depression)
      1970 thru 1971 (2,500 domestic bombings take place in US over an 18 month period)
      All of the 1970s (high unemployment, sky-rocketing inflation, gas lines)

      So we shouldn’t be too melodramatic about the current time. Besides, the Dems are likely to get destroyed in the fall, we are starting to see some pushback against all this progressive woke nonsense, and most of the nation seems to recognise how truly awful Biden and his insane policies are. So things are already looking up!


    • ”just claim fraud and let me and the R congress take it from there”

      How was this comment documented, exactly? This sees bizarrely confessional and straightforward for Trump. If it isn’t on tape … then I suspect how well it fits the desired narrative.


  6. The media is now telling us inflation is a good thing.


  7. Sadly, no West Virginia v EPA today so the terms most important case is still in the wings.


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