Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 3,686 | 18.85 |
| Oil (WTI) | 114.88 | -2.84 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 3.23% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 5.99% |
Stocks are rebounding this morning after yesterday’s blood bath. Bonds and MBS are down.
Biden said that a recession isn’t inevitable in an interview with AP. On the subject of what voters should take away from the fact that economists suggesting a recession is possible next year, he said:
“They shouldn’t believe a warning. They should just say: “Let’s see. Let’s see, which is correct.” And from my perspective, you talked about a recession. First of all, it’s not inevitable. Secondly, we’re in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation. It’s bad. Isn’t it kind of interesting? If it’s my fault, why is it the case in every other major industrial country in the world that inflation is higher? You ask yourself that? I’m not being a wise guy. Someone should ask themself that question. Why? Why is it? If it’s a consequence of our spending, we’ve reduced the deficit. We’ve increased employment, increased pay. There was a survey done uh, uh, by the, uh, I forget which one it was, which one it was now, about three months ago. You had more people had lower debt (inaudible) credit cards, more savings in their savings account, higher pay in the job they had, more satisfaction in the job they had and they were in good shape financially.”
The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.4% in May. “The US LEI fell again in May, fueled by tumbling stock prices, a slowdown in housing construction, and gloomier consumer expectations,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The index is still near a historic high, but the US LEI suggests weaker economic activity is likely in the near term—and tighter monetary policy is poised to dampen economic growth even further.”
Given the abrupt rise in interest rates, I suspect the LEI hasn’t caught up to the new reality yet. Even the MBA forecast from earlier this month has a Q2 and end of year forecast for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage around 5%. It is currently 6%. Last week’s CPI report was a game changer.
Industrial production rose 0.2% in May, which was a touch below consensus. Manufacturing production fell 0.1%. Capacity Utilization inched up to 79%. Capacity Utilization is much lower than it was in the 1970s, and is at least one positive statistic on the inflation front. Of course the economy is much different today – we are no longer a manufacturing-focused economy but this is at least one positive development.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Not a parody:The Vox version of what holidays are for:
“Juneteenth isn’t just a celebration of freedom. It’s a monument to America’s failures.
The holiday observes the emancipation of enslaved people. Let it also be a time to consider the hypocrisies of the American experiment.
By Sean Collins ”
https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23096448/juneteenth-history
LikeLike
Sounds like the people are dissapointing the elected government. Perhaps it’s time they’re dissolved and another appointed.
LikeLike
I am surprised they haven’t done a piece on trans men for fathers day.
LikeLike
From the AP interview with Biden:
“Yet Biden’s remedy is not that different from the diagnosis made by former President Jimmy Carter in 1979, when the U.S. economy was crippled by stagflation. Carter said then the U.S. was suffering from a “crisis of confidence” and “the erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.””
Not the analogy I think he would want.
LikeLike
I think the left loves the analogy, they loved the Carter years.
LikeLike
They think confidence is engineer-able. They believe in their bones that FDR’s “The Only Thing We Have To Fear is Fear Itself” turned things around.
LikeLike
How to make supply chain problems worse:
“U.S. importers brace for chaos as Uyghur Act looms
By PHELIM KINE
06/16/2022 08:30 AM EDT”
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2022/06/16/u-s-importers-brace-for-chaos-as-uyghur-act-looms-00040072
LikeLike
Interesting point:
LikeLike
I thought the same exact thing about gold in the 2008 crisis. It fell in value just like every other asset. Ultimately I think these assets don’t correlate necessarily with inflation – they correlate with confidence in the system. Maybe the era of central banking has made that obsolete. Of these will only rally if people lose confidence in the worlds central banks.
LikeLike
You think the Fed is coming to the rescue this time?
LikeLike
Not if there isn’t any systemic financial fallout, and so far there doesn’t appear to be any.
LikeLike
So, Capital police aren’t heroes anymore?
If only they’d shot and killed one of these insurrectionists, that would do it.
LikeLike
What? They whitewashed Han 6th? When?
LikeLike
The Progs Strange New Respect for Liz Cheney will never not be funny.
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/18/2104383/-Craven-Republicans-marvel-at-Liz-Cheney-s-lonely-stand-for-American-democracy-as-we-know-it
LikeLike
So crazy it just might work!
But by then he’ll be a convicted felon.
LikeLike
Fascinating insight into D Prog thinking.
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/18/2104977/-Joe-Biden-Seems-To-Be-Operating-Like-A-President-At-The-End-Of-Their-Second-Term
LikeLike
Amazing.
https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Uvalde-classroom-doors-17251116.php
LikeLike
If there’s another school shooting parents are going to shoot their way past cops to get into the school and no one will convict them of it.
LikeLike
And it would’ve worked too, if it weren’t for those meddling kids!
LikeLike
Jacobin goes full tankie.
LikeLike
Coming up: battery shortages
LikeLike
Trannies can’t catch a fucking break.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/19/why-lgbtq-homebuyers-say-rising-mortgage-rates-are-hitting-them-hard.html
LikeLike
World ends tomorrow. Women and minorities most affected
LikeLike
How come Trump’s administration managed to
Keep the Russians out of the 2018 midterms and the 2020 Presidential elections? Apparently Democrats cannot keep Russians from interfering with elections.
https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2022/06/20/comedy-gold-cnn-already-blaming-russia-for-democrat-beatdown-in-upcoming-midterms-n581198
LikeLike
Good read:
LikeLike
The basic allegations against Mr. Trump are well known. In disregard of advice by many of his closest aides, including Attorney General William Barr, he falsely claimed that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent and stolen; he pressured Vice President Mike Pence to refuse to count certified electoral votes for Joe Biden during the electoral count in Congress on Jan. 6; and he riled up a mob, directed it to the Capitol and refused for a time to take steps to stop the ensuing violence.
I think the characterization is horseshit but even if I granted it what is/are the crimes?
LikeLike
Does any reasonable person doubt a DC jury would convict Trump of literally anything?
He would have to believe that the department could probably convince a unanimous jury that Mr. Trump committed crimes beyond a reasonable doubt.
LikeLike
Ok, here are the “crimes”
The two most frequently mentioned crimes Mr. Trump may have committed are the corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding (the Jan. 6 vote count) and conspiracy to defraud the United States (in working to overturn election results). Many have noted that Mr. Trump can plausibly defend these charges by arguing that he lacked criminal intent because he truly believed that massive voter fraud had taken place.
LikeLike
How is this written with a straight face?
The prosecution thus might jeopardize Mr. Garland’s cherished aim to restore norms of Justice Department “independence and integrity” even if he prosecutes Mr. Trump in the service of those norms.
LikeLike
McWing:
How is this written with a straight face?
The NYT has a great deal of practice in writing patently absurd things with a straight face.
LikeLike
If diseased scum like Wilson and LBJ can occupy the Oval Office and it’s not considered beyond the pale what has Trump done to justify the lefts and Never Trumps behavior towards him?
LikeLike
He made them feel bad. And for the left, everything is justified by emotion.
LikeLike
I can’t think of. Republican victory that didn’t make the left feel bad but their reaction to Trump’s only other parallel is Lincoln’s election.
LikeLike
Trump treated them with disdain. Sure, other R’s had policies that made them feel bad, but they at least treated the left with respect while at the same time seeking the left’s respect. Trump had the audacity to simply give them the middle finger and not care when they called him names. That, I think, pushed them into uncharted territory of unhinged hatred.
Plus, of course, he completely embarrassed them by doing what they repeatedly said he could not do…he beat them.
LikeLike
“The NYT has a great deal of practice in writing patently absurd things with a straight face.”
It’s an op-ed by Jack Goldsmith. Former George W. Bush DoJ assistant attorney general, not the NYT editorial staff.
LikeLike
Lol!
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/19/2105131/-Mary-Trump-Trump-Could-Have-Used-Pence-s-Murder-to-Declare-Martial-Law
Now hear me out – Trump could have used a butterfly flapping it’s wings in Outer Mongolia to declare himself God Emperor of Dune.
LikeLike
That settles it, I’m giving up my guns and leaving my security to the tender mercies of the police.
https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2022/06/20/officers-arrived-uvalde-school-rifles-shield-9-minutes-after-gunman/7623318001/
Thanks Senate Republicans for getting on board with gun control!!
LikeLike
Biden admits the pain is the point.
No mean tweets though so we dodged a bullet there.
LikeLike
Because they fucking love science is why!
LikeLike