Morning Report: The ECB paves the way for rate hikes

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures4,100-13.25
Oil (WTI)121.41-0.64
10 year government bond yield 3.05%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.51%

Stocks are lower this morning as the ECB prepares to hike rates. Bonds and MBS are down.

The ECB has ended quantitative easing and has paved the way for a 25 basis point hike in rates. Europe has been in a negative rate environment for a long time, so the adjustment will be worth watching. Since global bond yields generally correlate, a rise in European yields will push up US yields as well. That said, the US Treasury is still one of the highest-yielding sovereigns on the planet.

Stocks and bonds sold off on the announcement, with the 10 year ticking towards 3.05%.

Rising rates have decreased mortgage credit, according to the MBA. Interestingly, we are back at post-crisis levels, although much of it is driven by higher rates. “The index remains more than 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels, as credit tightening has occurred in recent months around refinance loan programs,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Last month’s tightening was most notable in the government and jumbo segments of the mortgage market. The decrease in government credit was driven mainly by a reduction in streamline refinance programs, as mortgage rates increased sharply through May, slowing refinance activity. Jumbo credit availability, which was starting to see a more meaningful recovery from 2020’s pullback, declined after three months of expansion.”

2.71 million mortgages were originated in the first quarter, according to data from ATTOM. This is down 18% from the fourth quarter and 32% from a year ago. “The drop-off in Q1 refinancing activity is no surprise with mortgage rates rising as rapidly as they have,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM. “But many forecasts expected purchase loans to remain strong in 2022, and even increase in both the number of loans originated and the dollar volume of those loans. The weakness in purchase loan activity shows just how much of an impact the combination of escalating home prices and rising interest rates have had on borrower activity this year.”

While the percentage decline is grabbing attention, compared to post-bubble numbers current production is still pretty strong.

Initial Jobless Claims ticked up to 229,000 last week. These are still historically very low numbers, but we are beginning to see some layoffs happen.

81 Responses

  1. Lol

    Like

    • Republicans pounce.

      Like

    • After all the flack that Palin got for the cross hairs ad, I’m not particularly sympathetic to Schumer.

      If progressives want to be the discourse police, then they need to be prepared to live by their own rules.

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      • when has the left ever lived by its own rules? Rules are for their enemies.

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      • jnc:

        If progressives want to be the discourse police, then they need to be prepared to live by their own rules.

        One of their rules has always been that their rules do not apply to themselves.
        (Corked by Brent!)

        Like

  2. Hopefully this is the start of something bigger:

    “Small cancer drug trial sees tumors disappear in 100 percent of patients
    Image without a caption

    By Kim Bellware
    June 8, 2022 at 4:58 p.m. EDT”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/06/08/cancer-drug-trial/

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  3. First good David Brooks piece in a while:

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    • The core problem here is not the minutiae of who texted what to chief of staff Mark Meadows on Jan. 6 last year. The core problem is that there are millions of Americans who have three convictions: that the election was stolen, that violence is justified in order to rectify it and that the rules and norms that hold our society together don’t matter.

      I hate how the left thinks this just happened in a vacuum. That for some inexplicable reason, these evil republicans just turned on the nice, respectful and tolerant democrats who only want people to have healthcare.

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      • True, Brooks only goes so far, but at least he gets this much right:

        “Using the events of Jan. 6 as campaign fodder is small-minded and likely to be ineffective. If you think you can find the magic moment that will finally discredit Donald Trump in the eyes of the electorate, you haven’t been paying attention over the last six years.

        This is a movement, not a conspiracy.”

        The person they should have testify is the guy from Marytr Made

        https://outsidevoices.substack.com/p/author-of-the-mega-viral-thread-on?s=r

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        • The thing about his position is that if the administrative and security state works on the behalf of a single party and is not accountable in any way, then elections don’t really mean much.

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      • I wish the elected Republican Establishment actually believed this narrative, sadly they do not.

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      • The fucking mind reading, too. Millions of Americans think the election was stolen and believe violence is justified to remedy that. Based on what do they know this? The thousand people who showed up for J6, the vast majority of whom weren’t violent? At all?

        I’d say it was gaslighting but I think they are just delusional. And not very aware of the outside world.

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    • The interesting thing to see will be whether being arrested by the FBI (on misdemeanor charges) will help or hurt his campaign.

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      • In all sincerity I am VERY excited for the indictment, trial and conviction of Trump by Biden’s DoJ!! And if he wins the election…

        Well, let’s just say I’ll be in mortal danger because it will last longer than 4 hours!!

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  4. Things are even crazier than I thought:

    “The reaction to Walsh’s movie on the Twittersphere has been predictable, with lots of denunciations of the bearded filmmaker as a fascist bigot, but relatively few efforts to answer the film’s question (which, humorously, would end the entire controversy). My favorite response to date was an angry suggestion by blue-check Substacker Ben Dreyfuss: “Are you saying eunuchs shouldn’t be allowed to castrate themselves?”

    I mean, I guess they should be, but most eunuchs in history had someone do it for them, and those stories aren’t exactly happy ones, for anyone but certain very fanatic music lovers. But I digress.”

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/what-is-a-woman-a-movie-that-should?s=r

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  5. Funny this.

    Wonder what he did to piss off The Blob?

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  6. We should give them 20 or 30 more billion then.

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  7. I wonder how they would frame it a bunch of kids were taken to a strip club

    https://thehill.com/news/wire/3514357-dallas-drag-queen-event-for-kids-sparks-outrage-defense/

    Like

  8. Jesus, this line from Ace,

    Last time I saw a mouth like that it had a Quint in it.

    https://ace.mu.nu/

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  9. Honesty, I didn’t even read the comments here tonight. My life is complicated and a little scary right now with Walter’s surgery on Monday! All I can say is that if I lived in WY I would totally vote for Liz Cheney……………..yep, surprised me too. But she’s honest, passionate and even though she’s way more conservative than I am I trust her to tell the truth……………She’s my candidate to send money to this year………..I always pick one!

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    • Praying that Walter’s surgery is a success and his recovery is swift!

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    • Liz Cheney’s road to Damscus moment must have been something. She was a reliable vote for Trump and the house leadership up until the 2020 election. So she may not be all the conservative going forward. There’s been a real flip there, and a change as to which side her bread is buttered on.

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      • LOL Kevin…………..she’s essentially given up her seat in Congress to tell the truth about Trump, a bullshit claim about a stolen election and the attack on Jan 6. I doubt she cares about bread and butter. I respect the fact that she’s not buying the BS about a stolen election and challenging other R’s to tell the truth as well. I find the entire thing fascinating. She and I would probably disagree on so many issues but truth is not one of them.

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        • You have a faith in politicians I do not have. She may be serious but I also see more than a little of this as cynical.

          But I’m not a big fan of DC politicians, and an biased thereby.

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        • Honestly Kevin I’m not a fan of politicians either but I think she has this right. I believe she’s defending the constitution and the right of each of us to have our one vote count. Trump was trying to subvert the vote and that’s just not okay in any way shape or form. He’s a fraud now and was a fraud then. That was always my opinion and knowing that Liz Cheney sees it too encourages me in some way!

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        • Well, I’m glad it does. My take tends to be more cynical. But a diversity of views is what it’s all about!

          I don’t expect Cheney’s will to power is that different from Trump’s, though tactics vary. But I may just be too jaded.

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        • That’s not to say that I think our “Democracy” will survive……………I have lots of doubts about all of it!

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        • When do you think our “Democracy” was at its peak?

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        • lms:

          she’s essentially given up her seat in Congress to tell the truth about Trump

          The idea that the Jan 6 committee is an exercise is truth seeking/telling seems pretty crazy to me. It is, fairly transparently, a political exercise designed to advance the electoral prospects of Dems. And that is why the condemnations of Cheney from the R’s are quite justified. She has allowed herself to be used to give the patina of bipartisanship to what is in fact an extremely partisan “investigation”.

          If Cheney was actually interested in the truth, she would have declined to be used by Pelosi in this manner, and insisted on a truly bipartisan investigation. And any citizen/voter who is genuinely interested in the truth about Jan 6 ought not be relying on this charade to discover it.

          On the other hand, if one has already accepted the Dem narrative of Jan 6, and is just looking for reinforcement of already-held views of “the truth”, then I suspect these hearings will be just the ticket.

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        • In all fairness I’m not sure advancing the electoral prospects of the Democrats is a likely outcome.

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        • KW:

          In all fairness I’m not sure advancing the electoral prospects of the Democrats is a likely outcome.

          I agree. It’s not at all clear that the strategy will work. But that it is the strategy seems to be the logical explanation for what Pelosi is doing.

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        • NYT basically said as much, but I think you could also see it as a kind of fan convention or event for progressives/anti-Trumpers. The point is catharsis and self-congratulation and virtue signaling over any imagined electoral benefits. It’s a kind of celebration for the ruling elites and their biggest fans about how much better they are than the deplorables.

          The constant relitigation of past events, from either side, does not strike me as sincerely about improving electoral prospects. Whether it’s about the 2020 election or January 6th.

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        • McWing, I honestly don’t know when our democracy was at our best. I think we show our best instincts during times of great stress………..WW2, 9/11, that sort of thing but that doesn’t really have anything to do with democracy…………more like a national identity I guess. I do think that because we ended slavery, ended Jim Crow, advanced the rights of the least among us, let women vote, ended McCarhyism, came together to force Nixon to resign, etc, etc, show that our democracy is capable of accomplishing some important challenges. I also think that it’s always a balancing act between ideologies, which is kind of the point of democracy right? In my heart of hearts I believe Trump tried to subvert the vote to remain in power, not a democracy!

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        • 9/11 ended with the government nationalizing airport security, the DHS, and the Patriot Act. And the Iraq war. Not sure we were at our best that time. Not the democracy, anyway.

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        • Scott

          She has allowed herself to be used to give the patina of bipartisanship to what is in fact an extremely partisan “investigation”.

          Not sure how you can be so certain about her intentions or motivation. She’s given up a lot of power and influence (something most politicians are unwilling to do at any cost) to prove to the American people that Trump lied about the election and used whatever means he could to remain in power. I’m not a huge Liz Cheney fan……………..we probably agree on very little but I respect her integrity and willingness to speak the truth……………..as she sees it!

          If Cheney was actually interested in the truth, she would have declined to be used by Pelosi in this manner, and insisted on a truly bipartisan investigation. And any citizen/voter who is genuinely interested in the truth about Jan 6 ought not be relying on this charade to discover it.

          I find it very insulting for you to assume that Cheney allowed herself to be used by Pelosi……………really? I’m pretty sure there is no love lost between the two of them and McCarthy was invited to participate but declined. I’m not some kind of Truth Sayer to be able to verify when someone is telling the truth but I think she has this right.

          I’m curious who you and the others here would rely on to get to the truth of what I see as an attempt by the then President of the US to subvert the vote of the American people and remain in power by any means possible. Isn’t that really the crux of the matter? I remember being disappointed by the SC decision re Bush V Gore but Gore accepted the decision and we moved on.

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        • Without engaging in mind reading, I do think it’s self-evident that from the beginning the January 6th committee was a partisan political exercise, not a sincere effort to sort of why it happened. Which is what such things are now no matter who is doing them.

          But this committee is about as legitimate and sincere (as it appears from my point of view) as the Starr investigation.

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        • lms:

          Not sure how you can be so certain about her intentions or motivation.

          I didn’t say anything about Cheney’s intentions or motivations. I don’t know why she has allowed herself to be used by Pelosi. I only know that she has done so.

          I respect her integrity and willingness to speak the truth……………..as she sees it!

          I suspect that what you really respect is her willingness to speak the truth as you see it. I’m sure Trump speaks the truth “as he sees it”, but you don’t respect him, do you?

          Personally speaking, I am interested in the truth, full stop. Not so much how any particular person happens to “see” it.

          I find it very insulting for you to assume that Cheney allowed herself to be used by Pelosi……………really?

          Yep, really. It is transparently obvious, frankly. I’m not at all sure what is “insulting” about pointing out that Pelosi put Cheney on the committee in order to give it the appearance of bipartisanship while avoiding any challenges to the pre-ordained Dem narrative.

          I’m pretty sure there is no love lost between the two of them and McCarthy was invited to participate but declined.

          I guess that is one way to describe what happened. A fuller, more accurate description would be that, in a move that Pelosi herself said was unprecedented, she refused to allow McCarthy to choose the R’s that would sit on the committee, and so McCarthy responded by saying that if Pelosi wouldn’t allow the R’s to choose their own representatives, the R’s would not participate. Pelosi then invited Cheney to sit on the committee, and in defiance of her own party’s protest, she accepted Pelosi’s invitation. Or, in other words, she allowed herself to be used by Pelosi.

          I’m curious who you and the others here would rely on to get to the truth of what I see as an attempt by the then President of the US to subvert the vote of the American people and remain in power by any means possible.

          It seems to me that you think you already know the truth, and you are just looking for someone to provide you with some kind of official declaration of it.

          In any event, I don’t and wouldn’t rely on any congressional committee to get to the truth of a political matter, because they are comprised of people who all have their own political agendas. And I certainly wouldn’t rely on an “investigation” by a group of politicians who were selected precisely because they could be expected to advance a pre-established narrative.

          Besides, I don’t think the “truth” about Jan 6 is an especially big mystery. All that is happening now is a fight over how it gets framed for political purposes.

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        • There’s a lot of things that would be interesting to discuss about Jan 6th. What Trump was doing and his non-responsiveness is relevant, which aligns with the partisan goals of the committee so will get reviewed I expect. Ray Epps role would also be worthy of discussion, but won’t be discussed. Why there wasn’t more Capitol security also would be relevant. The idea that democracy was in anyway threatened at all should also get a public airing—as there was never a scintilla of a chance that those yahoos were going to overthrow the government and I viscerally distrust any politician suggesting that there was. Again I expect that won’t be debated.

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        • KW:

          There’s a lot of things that would be interesting to discuss about Jan 6th.

          Agreed. But I think the basic “truth” of the day’s events is not a mystery. The primary disagreement revolves around how the events are framed and characterized. In other words, the narrative, not the facts.

          there was never a scintilla of a chance that those yahoos were going to overthrow the government

          I don’t think they were even trying to “overthrow” the government. The very worst of them might be said to have come prepared to initiate some kind of political violence, but I am not aware of any plan to capture the military and install Trump as President for Life or something.

          Again I expect that won’t be debated.

          Definitely not. Pelosi took the step of preventing R’s from appointing its own members for the precise purpose of avoiding debate! There will be no cross-examination of witnesses and no narrative/framing will be allowed outside of the official, pre-determined one (insurrection!). It’s a show trial, plain and simple.

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        • To me, a better investigation would be how there was a coup in place – you have Milley calling China telling them of our plans, you have Pence working with Milley on troops to the capital. You have the Blob undermining the President’s role in defining Foreign Policy not being subordinate to The Blob’s idea of it as Vindeman flat out said.

          Nothing policy wise internally would change but it would force elected Republicans to at least take sides on the issue of who should run government and would therefore educate Republican base voters.

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        • Agreed, that would be a worthwhile exercise.

          I think jnc posted this a while ago, but in the context of what you say, I think it is worthy of a re-read.

          https://outsidevoices.substack.com/p/author-of-the-mega-viral-thread-on?s=r

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        • I dunno. I’m not sure we know the whole truth about Epps or how many folks there were FBI or Antifa or what the deal was with them letting people in in some areas. I’m not clear on what sort of prior warning they had or why they didn’t beef up police presence.

          All the things I don’t feel like we know the truth about aren’t being discussed however.

          Like

        • I think this remains the key insight:

          “Many Trump supporters don’t know for certain whether ballots were faked in November 2020, but they know with apodictic certainty that the press, the FBI, and even the courts would lie to them if they were. “

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        • Agreed. I wouldn’t even call myself a Trump supporter, and that is exactly where I am.

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        • This.

          I also know that if there were insight to be gained by talking about things that suggest Biden’s victory was atypical they wouldn’t do it because anything that doesn’t support the narrative is unacceptable. Lots of odd things regarding bellwethers and reversals of historical trends but can’t talk about that.

          Also describing an election with more American changed rules and drop boxes and weird pauses and resumptions as “the most secure election ever” is like intentionally trying to sow doubt.

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      • I am so red-pilled about the democrats and the media that I dgaf what comes out of these hearings and wouldn’t believe it if they said the sky was blue.

        Not after the Russian Collusion Hoax.

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        • It’s getting more and more difficult to believe our own eyes I think and the partisanship is out of control. If we all become so skeptical and jaded what is the future of our country and are you only blaming the left for the problems?

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        • Oh, is not just the left that are responsible for our problems.

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        • idk. i have zero trust in the government right now, so i really don’t care if nothing ever gets done.

          The identity politics left owns the democrats, and they hate my guts, so i am not all that interested in working with them, or even dealing with them.

          I boycotted culture decades ago, I basically avoid progressives like the plague and talk to the only when I absolutely have to.

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        • Well TBH one of the reasons I rarely hang out here anymore is because you’re so stoic in your disregard for another opinion. I’m actually not a progressive but I barely can deal with your dismissal of my opinion. I don’t hate that you disagree but I do hate that you don’t give me a chance………….It’s okay though because this isn’t my place anymore or even a place to debate, not really! I’s like to try but I doubt you’ll give me a chance

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        • I’m open to anything. How much energy I have to engage in debate at any given time is another story!

          Share any opinion, as far as I’m concerned. Could debate issues rather than people as “whose the bad guy” debates, though popular on Twitter, don’t accomplish much. Except maybe a little catharsis.

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        • I’d believe if there was clear evidence presented. In a context where all those involved weren’t demonstrating zero instance in “getting to the truth” and instead of obviously (and even admittedly) working at crafting a narrative for their own political benefit.

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        • Well, Westchester County is deep, deep blue. Lots of “In This House We Believe” signs.

          So that is part of where it is coming from.

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    • I hope Walter’s surgery goes well.

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      • Thanks JNC………….it’s pretty scary TBH but if it’s successful his life going forward should improve. He has one of the top surgeons in CA who does this kind of surgery so thank God for that!

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  10. Undeniable.

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    • an unarmed protest versus an army.

      these people are just delusional.

      Like

    • I’m thinking about coming back here to comment now and then, as you might have noticed. I don’t always have time to respond but will do my best. I won’t respond to some of the comments or hyperbolic links of progressives who are over the top. Please don’t think I agree with them. But I will try to respond to reasoned debate. I think that Donald Trump has done some damage to the conservative party I used to understand, if not respect all the time.

      We had a realtor in Dec of 2020 who sold our rental house and did a great job. I’ll never forget her telling us though that the election was still up in the air and Trump would win. She’s an intelligent motivated woman and actually believed the lie……………..that’s not good IMO!

      Like

      • Trump is a symptom, not a disease. Just as the progressives you might agree are taking things too far are more symptom than cause.

        I think the root cause is the present information Revolution, especially regarding social media. Tumult and chaos and cultural upheaval (and reactionary resistance to same) often accompany technological revolutions.

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    • Insane. Just bizarrely ahistorical and irrational.

      Like

  11. Just a quick question…………..do any of you read opinions or listen to podcasts from The Bulwark………….Charlie Sykes etc? I have a kind of love for disaffected Republicans. They don’t necessarily love Dems or Biden, and neither do I, but I kind of like their take on thing right now. I’m sure they’re “Never Trumpers”, as am I, but I do think they have some good insight about where we are right now as a Democracy.

    Like

    • I’m more Commentary and Ricochet—who are not disaffected Republicans but don’t like Trump or the populists. But didn’t experience an entire conversion to a new (still) pro-war but otherwise left/neoliberal position.

      Even Jonah Goldberg got tiresome to me bellyaching about Trump. But whatever floats your boat!

      Like

    • lms:

      Just a quick question…………..do any of you read opinions or listen to podcasts from The Bulwark………….Charlie Sykes etc?

      No.

      Like

  12. I guess we’ll eventually see if anything in these hearings changes the minds of any Trump fans. My biggest fear is that both Trump and Biden will try to run in 2024. Uggghhh, that would be a disaster IMO. Anywhoo, I have a busy day getting Walter ready for his surgery tomorrow and picking up our daughter at the airport so I don’t have time for anymore politics right now. I probably won’t bother you guys again with this as I seem to be annoying all of you…………..LOL

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    • lms:

      I guess we’ll eventually see if anything in these hearings changes the minds of any Trump fans.

      See what I mean? You aren’t viewing the House investigation as a truth seeking event. You are viewing it as a “convince people of what I have already concluded” event.

      Like

    • you aren’t annoying us.

      That said, my feelings are more towards the modern progressive left in general then individual people.

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    • I concur. I’d prefer a square-off between better candidates for sure. I am something of a Tulsi Gabbard fan but she’s got no chance. I’d rather see Ron Desantis run than Trump. I guess we will find out. But these hearings at the least give such an obvious appearance of political partisan bias, they could not possibly convince Trump fans to be otherwise. However, with so much going on (inflation, Ukraine, supply chain) Trump’s insistence of relitigating 2020 will lose Trump some fans.

      Like

    • We just disagree on political stuff. We’re not annoyed. I’m not anyway! Best of luck tomorrow!

      Like

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