Morning Report: Loretta Mester sees 50 basis point hikes all summer long.

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,144.25
Oil (WTI)119.550.64
10 year government bond yield 2.98%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.42%

Stocks are higher this morning as China’s COVID crisis seems to be ending. Bonds and MBS are down.

The week after the jobs report is generally data-light, and we will also have no Fed-Speak as this is the quiet period ahead of the June FOMC meeting. The biggest economic report will be the Consumer Price Index on Friday. While the year-over-year numbers will grab the headlines, investors will be focused mainly on the month-over-month numbers, to see if inflation is beginning to moderate.

The Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she hasn’t seen evidence that inflation has peaked. “I think the Fed has shown that we’re in the process of recalibrating our policy to get inflation back down to our 2% goal. That’s the job before us,” Mester said in a live interview on CNBC’s “The Exchange. I don’t want to declare victory on inflation before I see really compelling evidence that our actions are beginning to do the work in bringing down demand in better balance with aggregate supply,” she added.

She also supports the idea of the Fed raising the Fed Funds rate 50 basis points at the next two meetings. He bias is towards hiking another 50 in September, unless economic circumstances change.

“I’m going to come into the September meeting, if I don’t see compelling evidence [that inflation is cooling], I could easily be at 50 basis points in that meeting as well,” she said. “There’s no reason we have to make the decision today. But my starting point will be do we need to do another 50 or not, have I seen compelling evidence that inflation is on the downward trajectory. Then maybe we can go 25. I’m not in that camp that we think we stop in September.”

FWIW, the Fed Funds futures have a 60% chance of another 50 basis points in September

12 Responses

  1. Good read. Although, I do wonder how replacing the MSM with TikTock will work out in the long run:


    • The MSM was captured by the left as has most of big tech.

      They would find a way to capture TikTok if necessary. No doubt they are trying right now. It’s just hard work.

      Although they still basically own Twitter. And Facebook. And Instagram.

      But until they can force everybody to stay on the platforms they capture and not just the people already within their narrative bubble, will still be a challenge.

      I’m sure the TikTok thing was an oversight. They’ll get to work on it.


      • They are now explicit about it:


        • i love how the left completely conflates “democracy” with the political fortune of the democrats


        • Been that way forever. I remember the headlines on Alternet after Bush won in 2004: “Democracy doesn’t work anymore”. Democracy only is considered valid when they win.

          The manifestation of the same attitude on the right is immediately judged fascist and “a dangerous conspiracy theory”.


      • “I’m sure the TikTok thing was an oversight. They’ll get to work on it.”

        The Chinese ownership is a problem for them. But Trump almost did the dirty work here by proposing to ban it.


        • I don’t know. The left wants to amplify LGBT stuff and I don’t think the Chinese are down with that.


        • Problem meaning impediment to getting rid of it or co-opting it.


        • yeah, that is easier. just tell google and apple to remove the ap and it is largely done


    • Man, the patriarchy is just so powerful, isn’t it?


  2. This is funny:

    “A pro-Herschel Walker gas giveaway fuels Democratic outrage

    Political Insider
    By Greg Bluestein, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
    Updated June 5, 2022

    A long line of cars formed at a Chevron gas station south of downtown Atlanta on Saturday as word spread that a political action committee was handing out $25 vouchers. Now the pro-Herschel Walker group’s giveaway is fueling a different sort of backlash.

    The initiative by 34N22 was designed to highlight rising gas prices, a top issue for Republicans hoping to capitalize on inflation and economic uncertainty to unseat U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock.

    Motorists in the heavily Democratic area were handed vouchers — a combined $4,000 worth — along with flyers promoting Walker, a former football player who is now the Republican nominee. Outside the gas station, volunteers held signs declaring “Warnock isn’t working.”

    Democrats and voting rights groups quickly criticized the stunt, questioning how offering fuel vouchers to support a political candidate could be allowed in a state that bans groups from distributing refreshments to waiting voters in line to cast ballots.

    “This is illegal,” declared LaTosha Brown, a cofounder of Black Voters Matter.”


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