Morning Report: Inflation decelerating?

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,08430.25
Oil (WTI)113.74-0.9
10 year government bond yield 2.74%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.29%

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small.

The stock market is open for a full day today, but the bond market closes early at 2:00 pm. Liquidity should be downright lousy in the MBS market as most of the street will be on the LIE by noon.

Personal incomes rose 0.4% MOM in April, according to BEA. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.9%. Incomes were lower than street expectations, while income were higher.

The PCE price index rose 0.2% MOM and 6.3% YOY. Ex-food and energy it was up 0.3% MOM and 4.9% YOY. The trend in the core rate has been decelerating which is good news as far as the Fed is concerned. The YOY numbers are still bad, but it looks like the worst is over as far as inflation goes.

Regardless of the inflation picture, consumer sentiment remains dour. It is back at the lows of 2008 -2010 and 2012. The drop in sentiment was driven primarily by buying conditions for durable goods and housing. Inflation is the key driver here, although housing inventory has been an issue for over a decade. Still, lower inventory and higher borrowing costs are making things difficult for would-be first time homebuyers. That said, consumers view this situation as temporary, and future expectations are higher.

22 Responses

  1. New Taibbi piece:

    There are two reasons the Clinton story isn’t a bigger one in the public consciousness. One is admitting the enormity of what took place would require system-wide admissions by the FBI, the CIA, and, as Matt Orfalea’s damning video above shows, virtually every major news media organization in America.

    More importantly, there’s no term for the offense Democrats committed in 2016, though it was similar to Watergate. Instead of a “third-rate burglary” and a bug, Democrats sent schlock research to the FBI, who in turn lied to the secret FISA court and obtained “legal” surveillance authority over former Trump aide Carter Page (which opened doors to searches of everyone connected to Page). Worse, instead of petty “ratfucking” like Donald Segretti’s “Canuck letter,” the Clinton campaign created and fueled a successful, years-long campaign of official harassment and media fraud. They innovated an extraordinary trick, using government connections and press to generate real criminal and counterintelligence investigations of political enemies, mostly all based on what we now know to be self-generated nonsense.


    • At the end of the day, the right is 100% red-pilled about the media, the left, Big Tech, and social media.

      The left will never admit they got it wrong – they are in a crusade against the right, and believe they have the moral high ground. Hypocrisy in the name of holiness and utopia is not a vice.


      • They don’t see it as hypocrisy. When they do it it’s entirely different than when you do it; it’s not even comparable. So it’s not hypocrisy.


        • It is ilke going to PL and asking if 2A opponents support common-sense limitations on abortion?



    • Matt sounds like a foaming-at-the-mouth conservative in that piece. It was a good read.


  2. TV Recommendations:

    Obi Wan Kenobi has started off strong with the first two episodes.

    Star Trek: Strange New Worlds is the best Star Trek series since at least DS9 and may top that. Way better than the reboot movies. Anson Mount as Captain Pike was inspired casting.


    • I’m out of Disney Star Wars. Kenobi honestly doesn’t look appealing to me. There was a book covering the same time period in Kenobi’s life, just a different story from what I hear. I’m sticking with that as my head canon.

      Also not interested in Star Trek as long as JJ Abrams/Bad Robot are doing it, or Kurtzman. I’m glad it’s better but doesn’t look appealing to me.

      Since I’m out of Disney Star Was, I’m not going to watch it most likely–but I did catch a trailer for Andor. That’s the one Disney Star Wars thing I’ve seen that I thought looked really good. Still, it’s Disney, so I’m not holding my breath.

      I’ve been watching the final season of Better Call Saul. It’s good. Also much enjoyed Yellowstone and 1883.


  3. Small town, high emotion, proximity to border means midlevel cartel personnel have their families there.


  4. Ezra Klein has a good piece on one of the big differences between liberalism now and during the New Deal:

    This is still my benchmark for “State Capacity”, the inability to fix this:


Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

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