Morning Report: Strong Jobs Report

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures4,106-40.25
Oil (WTI)109.811.69
10 year government bond yield 3.10%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.54%

Stocks are lower as markets continue their post-Fed sell-off. Bonds and MBS are down.

The economy added 428,000 jobs in April, which was a touch above the 400,000 consensus estimate. The gains were widespread, with leisure / hospitality adding 78,000 and manufacturing adding 55,000. Despite the recent gains in payrolls, we are still about 1.2 million jobs below pre-pandemic levels.

The unemployment rate was flat at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings increased 5.5% year-over-year. The labor force participation rate declined to 62.2% and the employment-population ratio declined to 60%.

Overall, this is a strong jobs report and it gives the Fed leeway to keep increasing interest rates. Historically, a 3.6% unemployment rate is exceptionally low, so they could let it increase modestly and still be within the boundaries of “full employment.”

Delinquencies declined to 4.11% in the first quarter, according to the MBA. This was down from 4.65% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 6.38% a year ago. FHA delinquencies fell substantially. Most of the decrease was in the 90+ day bucket where the loans were either cured or entered post-forbearance workout plans.

23 Responses

  1. Interesting read:

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  2. Good read:

    “Kamala Harris also found her voice:

    Those Republican leaders who are trying to weaponize the use of the law against women. Well we say, ‘How dare they?’ How dare they tell a woman what she can do and cannot do with her own body? How dare they? How dare they try to stop her from determining her own future? How dare they try to deny women their rights and their freedoms?

    The premise here is that all women support abortion rights. But there is no serious gender gap on this question. In fact, a majority of “pro-lifers” are women, not men. So Harris is effectively saying: how dare women be allowed a voice in this debate?

    Within minutes of the SCOTUS leak, moreover, we were told it means that before long, interracial marriages will be banned … in a country where 94 percent support them! Imagine Clarence Thomas divorcing himself by jurisprudence. Here’s Traister again: “Voting rights were gutted in 2013. Marriage equality. Griswold. Loving. Don’t ever listen to anyone who tells you such fears are silly or overblown.” Actually, listen to them — if you can hear them over Traister’s permanent rage-tantrum.

    What strikes me about all of this is not the emotive hyperbole — that’s par for the course in a country where every discourse is now dialed to eleven. What strikes me most in these takes is the underlying contempt for and suspicion of the democratic process — from many of the same people who insist they want to save it. How dare voters have a say on abortion rights!”

    https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/how-dare-they-043?s=w

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  3. Well this is amusing and revealing:

    Come Elon…sort this shit out!

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  4. I read this as Fauxahontas not supporting any limits on abortion.

    https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/pocahontas-refuses-to-answer-the-question/

    Is that the correct interpretation?

    Second video.

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    • McWing:

      I read this as Fauxahontas not supporting any limits on abortion.

      Most of the establishment Dems don’t support any limits. It’s just another of the many issues on which the Dems have demonstrably become increasingly radical. All the while, of course, they gaslight people about how far to the right the R’s have moved.

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  5. You know we are in trouble when Friedman starts to make sense:

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  6. Like

    • It’s especially hilarious they’re in front of Roberts house.

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    • TOTALLY not an insurrection.

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    • Protestors in front of Kavanaugh’s house are chanting “You don’t care if people die,”

      These people are ignorant on so many levels. I haven’t said this in a long time, but we live in the Twilight Zone.

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      • They are. Although I’m guessing Kavanaugh doesn’t care if any of those protestors die. Good lord know I don’t.

        If Roberts has any kind of spine (ha who am I kidding) he’d switch his vote to make it a 6-3 decision. In light of this nonsense. If this is demonstrated to influence the outcome this will be the template for all controversial SCOTUS cases going forward.

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        • KW:

          If Roberts has any kind of spine (ha who am I kidding) he’d switch his vote to make it a 6-3 decision.

          Well, on the actual case before them, I suspect it is going to be 6-3 anyway. That is, I suspect Roberts will vote in favor of upholding the Mississippi law, but will not sign onto the (presumed) majority opinion and will write his own, upholding the law on narrow grounds without overturning Roe/Casey.

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        • It worked for upholding Obamacare, remember that Roberts switched his vote and that’s why Scalia’s dissent was so scathing.

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  7. Love this Orson Wells observation on Meyer Lansky, the Mob and The Godfather nexus.

    The whole threads fascinating.

    Like

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