Morning Report: Manufacturing Remains Strong

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures4,126-0.25
Oil (WTI)101.32-3.39
10 year government bond yield 2.98%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.42%

Stocks are flat this morning as we head into a big week of data. Bonds and MBS are down.

The FOMC is meeting this week, and the market is looking for a 50 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate. There won’t be any new projections, although balance sheet reduction is one of the big issues going forward.

In terms of economic data, we will get ISM numbers this week, along with the jobs report on Friday. We are also in the heart of earnings season, with a couple thousand earnings reports coming.

The Street is looking for 400,000 jobs to have been created in April, a 3.6% unemployment rate, and 5.5% wage growth.

Institutional investors in the rental space are getting static from government and consumer groups. The complaint is that first time homebuyers are getting priced out of the market by investors. Is that true? Investors bought something like 80,300 houses in the fourth quarter, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the 6.5 million existing and new home sales we generally get in a year. It doesn’t seem like that sort of incremental buying is moving up house prices.

The usual suspects are writing letters asking the institutions to explain why they are raising rents, and have been accused of “running a scam.” They are going after Invitation Homes, American Homes 4 Rent and Progress Residential. Rents are rising because home prices are rising. Shortages of workers and materials are delaying homebuilding, along with regulation which adds to the price of a new home.

Manufacturing decelerated in April, according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. Sentiment is still strong, but shortages remain an issue. Of note is the idea that inflation may be moderating:

“The U.S. manufacturing sector remains in a demand-driven, supply chain-constrained environment. In April, progress slowed in solving labor shortage problems at all tiers of the supply chain. Panelists reported higher rates of quits compared to previous months, with fewer panelists reporting improvement in meeting head-count targets. April saw a slight easing of prices expansion, but instability in global energy markets continues. Surcharge increase activity across all industry sectors continues. Panel sentiment remained strongly optimistic regarding demand, though the three positive growth comments for every cautious comment was down from March’s ratio of 6-to-1, Panelists continue to note supply chain and pricing issues as their biggest concerns.”

You can see that the ISM is still pretty strong over the longer-term, however it is heading down as inflation and bottlenecks remain an issue:

Construction spending rose 0.1% MOM and 11.7% YOY, according to Census. This was a touch below expectations. Residential construction rose 1% MOM and 18% YOY.

22 Responses

  1. I wonder if Tucker will respond with a three part series on the NYT, or are they too marginal at this point to even bother with.

    Like

    • “Even a decade ago, an endless three-part “investigative” series heavily promoted by the NYT, devoted to calling someone a racist and fascist over and over, would have destroyed anyone’s reputation and career.

      Now, it doesn’t matter – at all – because they only speak to liberals.”

      They don’t only speak to liberals–or at least primarily. They speak to leftists, to hard-left progressives. And some on the right are learning that the best response is to dismiss, to mock, and also calmly explain how wrong they are and let them flip out.

      They’ve lost a lot of traditional, 80s and 90s era liberals, too.

      Like

      • I don’t think actual Marxian economic leftists have much respect for them either.

        I’d describe their audience as primarily woke progressives.

        Like

  2. Interesting:

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  3. Got to love the “you” in this headline:

    “School systems don’t want you to read these books. Here’s why.
    The United States is facing an unprecedented wave of book banning in schools. The Post counted 10 common rationales for bans, with prominent examples of each.

    By Laura Meckler and Perry Stein”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/04/28/book-banned-why-locations/

    Like

    • Well, clearly “you” is inaccurate, but so is “book banning”, as in the case of Maus they wanted it removed from curriculum as required reading for the class. In other cases, they did not want to make the books available in the school library–and lots of books are available in school libraries.

      Any parent or guardian can purchase the books for kids if they want. In the vast majorities of cases the kids could go check the books out of their local public library.

      The “unprecedented wave” part is false, too. Schools are always in the process of curating their libraries and modifying their curriculum, for a variety of reasons, including appropriateness of subject matter for grade level.

      And they specifically say of Maus: “One place it’s banned: McMinn County (Tenn.) Schools, in 2022.”

      It’s not banned. It was removed from an actual course curriculum. That’s not even banning it from the school library. There are better and actual resources to teach about the holocaust, if so desired. Referring to what happened to actual Jewish people.

      Also worth noting some of the books are “banned” in small school districts, often with very few schools, giving very little meaning to the urgency of this “unprecedented” wave of book bannings.

      Like

      • Still accurate:

        “The bias of the mainstream media is towards sensationalism, conflict and laziness”

        – Jon Stewart

        This does not preclude other bias as well.

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  4. Each party benefits from their choice of opponents. The comments here are classic PL.

    “Democrats understand their rural voter problem perfectly well”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/02/democrats-rural-voter-problem/

    Waldman’s piece was in rebuttal to this NYT op-ed that dared to suggest better outreach to rural voters:

    Like

    • You aren’t kidding about the comments. Holy crap, they illustrate the problem the left has engaging with anybody who is not exactly like them in every way.

      Although Waldman seems pretty dismissive of rural voters, and in no way touches on anything that Democrats do that might alienate people outside of deep blue urban centers that they might consider tempering.

      The comments.

      “I think it would be more accurate to say that rural Americans don’t understand the Democratic Party.”

      “ How is one supposed to reach to people who think microchips inhabit vaccines, or who think pizza parlors have basements full of cannibals trying to to install a world government, or who think the proper way to conduct political discourse is to yell through a mail slot, or who complain loudly about anyone else getting a government handout when they’ve been living off them since birth, or who pretend a storming of the capital is a tourist visit? I could go on an on. Rural folks by and large are leeches of the land who’ve more than earned our disrespect.”

      This stuff amazes me and strikes me as if not 180 degree wrong then at least 90 degrees wrong. So much projection.

      “ The GOP plays directly into our 30-year-old national malaise, the I’m-the-most-victimized-person-of-all disorder, with great skill. The Dems think they can solve problems by addressing them with actual solutions. They fail completely to understand that they’ll be able to gain a foothold with many so-called conservatives only by acknowledging their perceptions of extreme victimhood.”

      Like

    • You aren’t kidding about the comments. Holy crap, they illustrate the problem the left has engaging with anybody who is not exactly like them in every way.

      Although Waldman seems pretty dismissive of rural voters, and in no way touches on anything that Democrats do that might alienate people outside of deep blue urban centers that they might consider tempering.

      The comments.

      “I think it would be more accurate to say that rural Americans don’t understand the Democratic Party.”

      “ How is one supposed to reach to people who think microchips inhabit vaccines, or who think pizza parlors have basements full of cannibals trying to to install a world government, or who think the proper way to conduct political discourse is to yell through a mail slot, or who complain loudly about anyone else getting a government handout when they’ve been living off them since birth, or who pretend a storming of the capital is a tourist visit? I could go on an on. Rural folks by and large are leeches of the land who’ve more than earned our disrespect.”

      This stuff amazes me and strikes me as if not 180 degree wrong then at least 90 degrees wrong. So much projection.

      “ The GOP plays directly into our 30-year-old national malaise, the I’m-the-most-victimized-person-of-all disorder, with great skill. The Dems think they can solve problems by addressing them with actual solutions. They fail completely to understand that they’ll be able to gain a foothold with many so-called conservatives only by acknowledging their perceptions of extreme victimhood.”

      “Republican office holders don’t even have to bother helping their constituents. The 1st thing Republicans do when they get control of Congress is hand out tax breaks to people that make 100x the income of their average constituent.“

      People are just talking points and cliches.

      Like

    • They should forget those fucking hicks.

      Like

  5. Normally it’s when the House Speaker is from the opposing party that they presented to be in charge of Foreign policy. Says a lot about Biden’s inabilities that Pelosi is doing it. They’re not even trying to hide his senility.

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  6. Politico gets a leaked copy of SCOTUS decision overturning Roe.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473

    Never heard of a SCOTUS decision being leaked before. Seems a pretty bad thing to have happened. I assume the leftist justices or clerks want to stir up a public campaign in an attempt to pressure the court to change its ruling.

    Like

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