Morning Report: MBA refinance index hits lows of 2018

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,18010.25
Oil (WTI)100.22-1.49
10 year government bond yield 2.75%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.30%

Stocks are higher this morning as some big tech companies report earnings. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Mortgage Applications fell 8.3% last week as purchases fell 8% and refinances fell 9%. “With mortgage rates increasing last week to the highest level since 2009, applications continued to decline,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Overall application activity fell to the lowest level since 2018, with both purchase and refinance applications posting declines. Refinance applications were 70 percent below the same week a year ago, when the 30-year fixed rate was in the 3-percent range.”

The average mortgage rate rose from 5.2% to 5.37%. The refinance share of mortgage activity fell to 35%. The MBA refinance index is back to early 2018 levels.

Chart: MBA refinance index:

Pending Home Sales fell again in March, according to NAR. This is the fifth monthly decline in a row. “The falling contract signings are implying that multiple offers will soon dissipate and be replaced by much calmer and normalized market conditions,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “As it stands, the sudden large gains in mortgage rates have reduced the pool of eligible homebuyers, and that has consequently lowered buying activity. The aspiration to purchase a home remains, but the financial capacity has become a major limiting factor.”

The Senate has confirmed Lael Brainard as the vice-chair of the Fed.

4 Responses

  1. Ezra Klein has a good piece on Musk & Twitter today:

    “Jack Dorsey, Twitter’s co-founder and former chief executive, always wanted it to be something else. Something it wasn’t, and couldn’t be. “The purpose of Twitter is to serve the public conversation,” he said in 2018. Twitter began “measuring conversational health” and trying to tweak the platform to burnish it. Sincere as the effort was, it was like those liquor ads advising moderation. You don’t get people to drink less by selling them whiskey. Similarly, if your intention was to foster healthy conversation, you’d never limit thoughts to 280 characters or add like and retweet buttons or quote-tweet features. Twitter can’t be a home to hold healthy conversation because that’s not what it’s built to do.

    So what is Twitter built to do? It’s built to gamify conversation.”


  2. Scott – The new term for censorship is “Equitable speech.”


    • We live in a 1984 world, truly.


    • I have now more than once seen leftists fretting about the possibility that Musk will release private DMs between individuals. This can only mean one thing….this is something that leftists have wanted to do for a while, and will do if they get a chance.


Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

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