Vital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 4,377 | -29.25 |
| Oil (WTI) | 105.31 | -2.59 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 2.92% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 5.27% |
Stocks are lower this morning as bond yields continue to rise. Bonds and MBS are down.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made some hawkish comments yesterday, saying he would like to see the Fed Funds rate at 3.5% by the end of the year. He also said that unemployment should fall below 3% (!). “What we need to do right now is get expeditiously to neutral and then go from there.” Given that inflation rates are much higher than interest rates, monetary policy is still incredibly loose. Real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) interest rates are highly negative.
The last time the unemployment rate was below 3% was in the early 1950s.
Where were interest rates during the early 1950s? The 3 month T-bill was between 1.5% and 2% for the most part, and high quality corporate debt was yielding about 3%. The inflation rate in 1952 was 1.92%. So real interest rates were about 0%, give or take.
Housing starts came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.79 million in March, which was higher than expected. This is up 4% on a YOY basis. Building Permits rose to a 1.87 million pace.
Despite the increase in housing starts, homebuilder confidence continues to sag. The NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures homebuilder sentiment fell for the fourth month in a row. “The housing market faces an inflection point as an unexpectedly quick rise in interest rates, rising home prices and escalating material costs have significantly decreased housing affordability conditions, particularly in the crucial entry-level market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. Interestingly, the Northeast (which has been the laggard in the US housing market over the past 15 years) rose while everywhere else fell.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
The PL meltdown over not being forced to wear a mask on an airplane is a sight to behold.
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I’ll have to check it out.
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This will be interesting to see how it plays out:
“The White House has a problem with Democrats on immigration. And it’s only going to get worse.
On Monday, Sen. Gary Peters (Mich.), chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, became the latest Democrat to break with the Biden administration over its decision to end the use of Title 42 authority to deny asylum claims at the U.S.-Mexico border by next month.
Peters joins a growing list of Senate Democrats – we’re up to nine now – who have publicly expressed opposition to the administration’s position on Title 42, at least until a more concrete plan to deal with an expected migrant surge at the border.”
https://punchbowl.news/archive/4-19-22-punchbowl-news-am/
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This statement is funny to read when compared with the videos of airline crew members announcing mid-flight that everyone can just take their masks off:
https://www.afacwa.org/flight_attendants_urge_calm_and_patience_mask_mandate
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I had not seen this:
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The state of NYT journalism:
The new Editor in Chief has his work cut out for him.
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That is funny
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just got back from a cruise.
putting the mask on in the terminal was pointless.
but whatever. it’s over.
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Flying to Hawaii next week and am very happy.
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Good write up of the legal analysis.
https://reason.com/volokh/2022/04/19/federal-court-rules-against-cdc-transportation-mask-mandate/
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Rolling
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I can’t wait to read Glenn Greenwald’s take on the Taylor Lorenz / Libs of Tik Tok kerfuffle.
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He’s been tweeting about it. I think Taibbi is better. Glenn takes it too personally.
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Has Taibbi written about the Taylor Lorenz/LibsofTikTok issue?
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Tweets.
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just posted a story about it
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-washington-posts-libs-of-tiktok?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMTY0NzYxNiwicG9zdF9pZCI6NTI1MzI5NzgsIl8iOiJKaEV6ZyIsImlhdCI6MTY1MDQ4MjYzOCwiZXhwIjoxNjUwNDg2MjM4LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTA0MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.a_ZIKNgyrAU9mp2TFpuTt0DrnCtMtw3neJBlUckOGUE&s=r
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I do like his wordsmithing:
“The Washington Post, in the person of sobbing wokestress Taylor Lorenz, ran a story the other day about the “Libs of TikTok” account. I said some half-hearted things in defense of it initially. After a second look, I take them all back. If the Columbia Journalism School offered a class called “Dogshit Exposés,” this would be on the prospectus. It may not be first-week material, but it’s in the course.”
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I thought this was rather inspired:
The most incredible reaction in my mind came not from a journalist per se, but former labor secretary Robert Reich. His Guardian piece, “Elon Musk’s vision for the internet is dangerous nonsense,” is a marvel of pretzel-logic, an example of what can happen to a smart person who thinks he’s in Plato’s cave when he’s actually up his own backside.
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/twitters-chickens-come-home-to-roost?s=r
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And this:
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FYI:
https://www.libsoftiktok.com/subscribe
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I still think this is the most abusive story I’ve ever seen the Post do:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/blackface-incident-at-washington-post-cartoonists-2018-halloween-party-resurfaces-amid-protests/2020/06/17/66f09bde-af2e-11ea-856d-5054296735e5_story.html
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/why-did-the-washington-post-get-this-woman-fired.html
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that was horrible.
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I was paying my estimated taxes and couldn’t remember my PIN.
Found the letter and read my enrollment number
70 quadrillion something..
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Jacobin figures out that Joe Biden is secretly a Republican plant:
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2022/04/joe-biden-political-nihilism-jokerfication-democratic-party
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For a brief moment, Democrats would have the lawmaking power to mitigate at least one of the myriad stresses — health care, housing, education, retirement, and climate survival — that working-class Americans must worry about every day.
One of these things is not like the others. One of these things just doesn’t belong.
I don’t think “climate survival” rates anywhere near healthcare and housing and retirement as concerns of working-class Americans.
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So many names for “truant officer”
“That work falls not only to teachers and administrators, but also to teams of district employees with tongue-twister titles like Student Engagement Specialist, or S.E.S., Family and Community Support Service Provider, or F.C.S.S.P., and Pupil Personnel Worker, or P.P.W.”
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Here, if you’re absent more than 15 times unexcused you get referred to JC. Problem doesn’t resolve your guardian get’s referred to adult court. Jail is a real possibility, as are fines.
We don’t have the same problem with chronic truancy these folks in the article are having, so I’m wondering it they do the same thing. Article doesn’t mention it.
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This doesn’t sound like an argument for following the science, does it.
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Has it EVER actually sounded like they were “following the science”?
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An interesting read, but this shows a lack of self awareness on the progressive side:
See “racist”
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/04/christina-pushaw-ron-desantis-libsoftiktok-groomer.html
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jnc:
See “racist”
Indeed. Using terms to mean something other than what people usually understand them to mean is the left’s go-to rhetorical tactic. What a shame it is now being used against the left.
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Inevitable. Every tactic used by one side effectively will eventually be used by opposition. Not necessary the understood “other side” opposition–say, the DNC may adopt tactics that the GOP never does. But life isn’t a movie and there are people not in the GOP who are still not progressives and may be much more willing to use tactics proven effective in the field–on them.
There seems to be a sense among many people hyper-into their ideology/partisan side/whatever that for some reason they are immune to having their common tactics turned on them. They are not. And the common defense–crying about how unfair it is that someone is doing to them what they’ve done to people multiple times–only finds a receptive audience with cult members.
Unfortunately, the MSM are all cult-members on the progressive side, generally, so the deck will always be stacked against the opposition.
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What’s funny is that they’ve tried to apply the groomer label to Matt Gary’s because the left is convinced he was banging teen broads.
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See literally any term they apply to anyone or anything in an attempt to move the needle on an issue or gain power.
I also thought this was full of left-to-right projection:
“One of the questions I asked was whether he could tell me how active her NGO was, given the possibility that it “could have just existed on paper.” Résumé inflation is common in the MAGA community, and the foreign aid/development world is known to be populated by cardboard-cutout entities that are created as part of larger influence campaigns”
Resume inflation is common pretty much everywhere. I doubt there is a career path or industry immune to it. Calling out the MAGA community as somehow uniquely prone to resume inflation is just absurd. I have no doubt they are, but there are leftwing NGOs and activist groups full of people with hyperfinflated resumes.
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Remember, Progressives are paragons of virtue. Why, even their lies are noble.
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The next Republican president should adopt this:
“Speaking of Airport Rules, Let’s Stop Taking Our Shoes Off Now
One easy thing the Biden administration could do to win hearts and minds.
By Henry Grabar ”
https://slate.com/business/2022/04/will-tsa-rules-for-shoes-ever-go-away.html
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That would be a smart move. So I’m not counting on the GOP to do it. Trump won’t, I don’t think Desantis will, can’t think of anyone else in the GOP that would consider taking the risk of making an unforced error by pushing something that might backfire.
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The quote here is A MAZE ING!
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Stupid voters!
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I think the next (R) President should negotiate a trade deal with China where the US agrees not to enforce patents on entertainment IP in exchange for a commitment to buy a few hundred billion worth of US manufactured goods.
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At the very least we should stop wasting resources trying to protect entertainment IP, re: China. They’re so much smarter than everybody else, they can figure out how to handle it themselves.
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Imagine if this was Trump:
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6304644574001#sp=show-clips
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Worth remembering and reading the whole thread:
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I find it very interesting how concerned CNN and other news outlets and lefty pundits are about the potentially DISASTROUS tax implications for Florida citizens.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/21/us/reedy-creek-walt-disney-florida/index.html
The dissolution of the special district would mean that Orange and Osceola counties take on the assets and liabilities of Reedy Creek. That could lead to higher taxes for those residents to pay off Reedy Creek’s debts and take over the care of roads, policing, fire protection, waste management and more.
Suddenly it’s a problem for the government to take over something? Suddenly we’re worried about taxes going up . . . on FLORIDIANS?
“Somebody is still going to have to pay for the bonds that were purchased in order to build that infrastructure. A lot of roadways. Someone is going to have to do those building inspections. It’ll take a lot of those inspectors with a lot of expertise,” he said. “Someone is going to have to pay for that. If that burden falls on taxpayers, that’s not going to look good for Gov. Desantis. This is going to look like folly.”
This all feels like concern-trolling. I don’t believe for a second they care about the tax consequences to anyone in Florida, at all. Also despite that the consequences clearly haven’t get been planned for . . . they have plenty of time to do it. A special tax on amusement parks over a certain amount of acreage could do it. I’m expecting certain taxes will be going up on Disney, anyway.
I’ve seen a dozen articles like this now, all concerned about what’s going to happen if Florida doesn’t let Disney continue to have its own little local government. My anticipation is this change will be and will end up being much worse for Disney than the local tax payers. Although I guess that remains an unknown. But the concern here seems like total bullshit.
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And the left will easily raise enough funds for Disney to counteract this. Rich Silicon Valley types subsidizing a tax break.
We live in odd times.
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Better them than me.
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Interesting history of libertarian attempts to buy an island to set up a extra-national community:
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2022/04/libertarians-crypto-vanuatu-michael-oliver-nfts
This was particularly amusing:
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The saddest documentary I ever saw was about poor people who were convinced there was a system to the lottery. They wasted every spare penny on it.
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Lol!
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/democrats-still-believe-clinton-won-in-2016
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Well, duh. Obviously THAT election was stolen. Saying there was anything wrong with the 2020 election is tantamount to treason, also. Because, you know . . . reasons. And stuff.
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Brent you may find this of interest:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/local-government-community-input-housing-public-transportation/629625/
Richmond, VA has no problem building more high density housing. The downtown has multiple new apartment complexes that all do look exactly like this:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-02-13/why-america-s-new-apartment-buildings-all-look-the-same
https://archive.curbed.com/2018/12/4/18125536/real-estate-modern-apartment-architecture
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I’m still trying to wrap my head around the left’s – the hard left’s – bloodlust when it comes to Russia and Ukraine. To listen to them Ukraine’s “democracy” is somehow the paragon of fraterne, equalite and eglalite. While the Russians are Hitler and Ghengis Kahn in one.
Why Ukraine? Why the whitest country on the earth?
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OMB
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All those hot Ukrainian chicks on OnlyFans?
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It’s as if the only thing that animates these progressives are white people suffering.
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It’s the eating after the gang raping that really is disturbing.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2353471/four-men-gang-rape-kill-and-eat-monitor-lizard-in-india
I thought the Ayatollah had proscriptions about that type of thing.
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the progressive left had the weirdest logic these days
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“I’m still trying to wrap my head around the left’s – the hard left’s – bloodlust when it comes to Russia and Ukraine.”
It’s easy: Russia = Trump. The fact that he got impeached over Ukraine just solidifies in their minds that Ukraine is another victim of Trump, just as they see themselves.
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I admit to finding this flabbergasting if true.
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I don’t. DC and the entire political class likes to have its cake and eat it, too.
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This broad’s answer is utterly incoherent.
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Indeed it is. I have heard similar “analysis” from a lefty friend of mine who has a serious case of TDS.
“Putin wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine if Trump was in office because he wouldn’t have had to. Trump would have given him whatever he wanted without going to war.”
“Given him what, exactly?”
“You know, like things, and stuff.”
Complete morons.
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It’s going to end up that Putin leveled Ukraine to get some eastern provinces. He was always going to get them and whomever was advising the Ukrainians, advised them to sacrifice thousands of lives and untold billions in infrastructure for it. Western nations will fight to the last Ukrainian, I guess.
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I will fight until your last breath, McWing!
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Remember my point about western nations willing to fight to the last Ukrainian?
https://tsarizm.com/news/eastern-europe/2022/04/23/europe-still-selling-weapons-to-russia-for-use-in-ukraine/
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I will bravely give you weapons to help you make a war that we won’t actually risk anything to help you fight. Yay us! We are so brave.
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