Morning Report: Q1 GDP estimates below 1%

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures4,4080.2
Oil (WTI)92.42-0.63
10 year government bond yield 1.99%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.10%

Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

The upcoming week will have some housing data including housing starts and the NAHB Housing Market Index. We will also get the Producer Price Index tomorrow. We will also have some Fed-Speak in the latter part of the week.

Mortgage delinquencies decreased in the fourth quarter, according to the MBA. “Mortgage delinquencies descended in the final three months of 2021, reaching levels at or below MBA’s survey averages dating back to 1979,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The fourth-quarter delinquency rate of 4.65 percent was 67 basis points lower than MBA’s survey average of 5.32 percent. Furthermore, the seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 2.83 percent in the fourth quarter, close to the long-term average of 2.80 percent.”  

St. Louis Fed Head James Bullard thinks the Fed needs to “front-load” the rate hikes. “I do think we need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously. We’ve been surprised to the upside on inflation. This is a lot of inflation,” Bullard told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a live “Squawk Box” interview. Our credibility is on the line here and we do have to react to the data,” he added. “However, I do think we can do it in a way that’s organized and not disruptive to markets.”

The current estimate for Q1 GDP from the Atlanta Fed is below 1%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now has Q1 GDP coming in at 0.7%. This means the economy is weak and probably won’t react well to rate hikes. The Fed has a fine line to walk here as it doesn’t want to push the economy into a recession. The Fed has to be hoping beyond hope that the current spate of inflation is supply-chain driven and works itself out.

10 Responses

  1. How to know when you are losing the messaging war:

    “New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez whined about her job and blamed the expiration of the expanded child tax credit for fueling crime in a new interview where she claimed that parents are stealing baby formula to feed their kids.”

    https://nypost.com/2022/02/14/aoc-blames-crime-surge-on-child-tax-credit-ending/

    Yeah, that’s what all of the online videos show, organized baby formula theft rings.

    Like

    • Probably. But (a) it’s hard to prove actual malice, I think, and there’s an argument when they just think you’re evil, it’s not malice, they think it’s “being objective”.

      Like

    • For 50 years, “journalists have generally been able to count on the courts to have their backs,” said Sonja West, a University of Georgia law professor. But “when you combine this trend with the drop in the public’s trust in the news media and the rise in high-profile defamation lawsuits like this case, many press-freedom scholars see reasons to be concerned about where things are headed

      “press-freedom scholars”

      A. What the hell are “press-freedom scholars”? Is that an official course of study towards a doctorate? Who are these “press-freedom scholars”?
      B. The mainstream press couldn’t give two shits about “freedom of the press”. They want to be gate-keepers, controllers of information, members of a reasonably small “expert” class that shares only that information they believe should be shared, and only with context and framing our elite betters feel is required.

      Also, the “courts having their back” was in part because they weren’t abusing that privilege. They tend to abuse it pretty liberally these days.

      Like

  2. Apparently there is such a thing as too progressive for San Francisco:

    “Parental fury propels San Francisco school board ouster

    The school board’s actions crystallized for many residents a failure of governance in an unswervingly Democratic city.

    By Jeremy B. White
    02/14/2022 07:08 PM EST ”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/14/san-francisco-school-board-ouster-00008422

    Like

    • Public school parent Brandee Marckmann, who opposes the recall, said she believes fellow parents who support the school board’s Covid safety and renaming efforts have been drowned out by well-financed foes.

      It’s always that, not that the politicians are incompetent, corrupt, or have terrible ideas. No one–certainly never a majority–can be against whatever it is they think is good. So it’s always Evil Businessmen or something.

      Marckmann worries that allowing Breed to appoint replacement board members to serve for the rest of the year would disenfranchise voters with kids in public schools

      Sure, for a limited period, but if it were about getting rid of a school board that had done something conservative-ish, would she care? Probably not. And hasn’t the school board been pretty much entirely about ignoring the will of the people it supposedly servers, anyway?

      and she fears the recall is linked to a broader right-wing push to politicize school board races.

      Sure, and why shouldn’t they? It’s advocacy. Activism. Politicking. Those things just can’t be good when your side does it and evil when the other side does it.

      Like

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