Morning Report: New Rez reports good numbers

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,55543.2
Oil (WTI)89.44-0.23
10 year government bond yield 1.93%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.94%

Stocks are higher as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Mortgage applications decreased by 8.1% last week as rates rose. Refis decreased by 7% and purchases fell by 10%. “With rates 87 basis points higher than the same week a year ago, refinance applications continued to decrease,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity slowed after the previous week’s gain. Both conventional and FHA purchase applications saw proportional declines, resulting in purchase activity overall dropping 10 percent. The average loan size again hit another record high at $446,000. Activity continues to be dominated by larger loan balances, as inventory remains tight for entry-level buyers.”

New Rez reported numbers yesterday which sent the stock up 7.4%. In anticipation of higher rates, New Rez has been building the servicing book. They are in a position now, at least according to their analysis that increasing rates will benefit financially – in other words, they think the increase in MSR valuation will more than offset the decline in origination that a 100 basis point increase in mortgage rates will be accretive to EPS by $0.11. Separately, New Rez announced some layoffs from the Caliber acquisition.

Mortgage bankers have been beaten up this year, especially United Wholesale and Rocket. New Rez has held up better than the rest. New Rez has a pretty decent dividend yield, so that might be helping.

Total household debt increased 2.2% to $15.58 trillion, according to the Fed. Mortgage debt increased a trillion last year. “The total increase in nominal debt during 2021 was the largest we have seen since 2007,” said Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, senior vice president at the New York Fed. “The aggregate balances of newly opened mortgage and auto loans sharply increased in 2021, corresponding to increases in home and car prices.” The biggest percentage increases were in student loan debt and credit card debt, however.

25 Responses

  1. Progressive’s not taking the loosening of Covid restrictions well.

    I could not agree more. I have been tweeting at governor Newsom like a crazy person. He is usually so smart. He should know better. There’s absolutely no reason to drop the mask mandate. In my small business, masks and vaccines will still be required. I expect to be wearing a mask for the rest of my life. And you know what, it’s just fine. I have to wear pants too. I feel weird not wearing pants. I also feel weird not wearing a mask. I seriously do not understand what the BFD is. Pretty much nobody is complaining about pants mandates. What’s the problem with adding one more tiny scrap of cloth to your ensemble?
    ladyrima February 09 · 10:53:23 AM


    • the left is so exhausting.


    • I expect to be wearing a mask for the rest of my life.

      Which is fine, if an individual wants to make that choice. Same with getting tattoos on your forehead, or surgical implants to make you look like a cat. Things things should not be mandated, however.

      What’s the problem with adding one more tiny scrap of cloth to your ensemble?

      What’s the problem with people making their own risk assessments and own decisions?


      • What’s the problem with adding one more tiny scrap of cloth to your ensemble?

        I am Islamic and I am offended by women’s skin. Please wear a hijab. What’s the problem with adding one more tiny scrap of cloth to your ensemble?


      • Many of these people firmly believe that Covid is a death sentence and cannot rationally assess their own risk. Also, they very much believe in the idea of collective action. If you read the comments the communal-we’re all in this together mindset is very prominent.

        Finally, that the No Mandates element is obviously associated with the Right inspires a lot of motivation to embrace coercion.


    • I have been tweeting at governor Newsom like a crazy person.

      Also, points for self-awareness.


  2. This. It was never about science:


  3. They can’t be parodied. This really should be in the Babylon Bee:


    • They’ll need to add ratings

      “True, but shut up”
      “True, but we don’t talk about that”
      “True, but we don’t trust you with this information”


    • Biden Crack Pipes for Minorities

      As absurd as the program itself is (and not novel–what’s different between this and “clean needles” programs?) the thing that makes me roll my eyes the most is the fact check “mostly false”. The “fact check” rates that claim mostly false, because–although entirely accurate, completely true, and containing nothing false–the program it refers to has other components, many of them larger or more expensive (I’m assuming).

      These aren’t fact checks. These are “we don’t like that people are sharing this fact” clapbacks.

      How long did it take the left and the media (but I repeat myself) to completely render “fact checking” meaningless?


    • that is depressing. though i think the woke will eventually piss everyone off.


      • Long overdue, IMO. But I expect the red-pilling this last year has been more significant than can be seen through culture and the media, and the effects will likely be long lasting. No guarantees, though.

        November elections will tell a lot of the tale but aren’t going to tell the whole story. What I will find most interesting is what happens at the local levels in a lot of purple-to-light-blue areas. Deep blue areas, even if there are upsets, aren’t going to necessarily be indicative of longer-term trends.


  4. So who is the fascist here again?

    “Opinion: Why the foot-dragging on a no-fly list?
    By Editorial Board”

    They also haven’t thought this through clearly as to how this list can be used when Trump gets reelected in 2024.


    • Because the have the government captured and know they won’t be targeted. They’re right, of course, and at some point that kind of power will be appealing to those on the Right and they’ll start doing what it takes to land those plum gigs. Still, they’ll blame the implementer of the policy and not the policy itself. For all their fear of Trump there has been ZERO motivation from either party to reduce the power of the Executive and re-assert the power of the Legislature. You’d think they’d want to reduce the regulatory authority of the Executive so they could exercise it themselves.


    • Slippery slope, IMO. Unruly eventually ends in “no flights if your credit score is not high enough” and you need to get an approval from an AI that scans your Twitter history (from NSA archives so no luck deleting those intemperate tweets) and Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, etc.

      And frankly I don’t understand this, anyway. Can’t an airline perma-ban an unruly passenger? Why does the government need to do it?

      Well, if the Delta CEO keeps up with it he won’t have to worry about having passengers on his flights. I’m already of the opinion that if I can get there in two days, I will always drive. If I can’t drive, I will do everything I can to avoid going.


      • “Can’t an airline perma-ban an unruly passenger?”


        “Why does the government need to do it?”

        To make sure they are marked as a “bad person” going forward. There’s also proposals to ban “domestic terrorists” and “insurrectionists” from flying.

        And as Glenn Greenwald notes, the scope of what’s considered an “insurrection” is expanding.

        What’s annoying is that almost all of this is being driven by mask mandates. I’d just get rid of the mandates.


  5. Russell Brand and Matt Taibbi discuss Trump vs the Media


  6. All your protests are insurrections.


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