Morning Report: Seasonal adjustments account for the big jump in payrolls.

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,5008.2
Oil (WTI)91.77-0.53
10 year government bond yield 1.92%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.88%

Stocks are flattish this morning as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are down small.

The week after the jobs report is usually pretty data-light, and this week is no exception. The big number will be the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.

Speaking of the jobs report, one of the explanations for the big jump in payrolls was a seasonal adjustment. Generally speaking a lot of people get hired for the holiday shopping season and then get laid off in January. BLS adjusts for that in its seasonal adjustments. This time around, the layoffs didn’t happen, as many employers decided to hang onto these temp workers since the labor market is so tight. So the 467k number more accurately represents people who ordinarily would have been let go that weren’t. I suspect that is the driver for the big difference between the ADP number (loss of 200k) and BLS (gain of 467k).

Mortgage rates continue to soar higher, reaching the highest level since late 2019. Most lenders are quoting rates in the 3.875% – 4% range. Big MBS investors like AGNC Investment noted that mortgage backed securities spreads are widening in January as investors are reluctant to catch a falling knife from the Fed.

United Wholesale is suing one of its broker partners for selling loans to Rocket and Fairway. This stems from a policy introduced last year, which made brokers agree to not sell loans to Rocket or Fairway.

27 Responses

  1. Smart, even if it’s just PR. I don’t think Rumble could even come up with the money and I’m sure they are all sorts of penalties on Rogan if he leaves.


  2. Guess NJ wants kids to die too, just like Trump supporters. Or maybe it’s Science ™ when blue states do it.


  3. Good read.This guy used to work with Taibbi back when they both lived in Moscow.

    “Ukraine — “The Crisis!”
    Part I: When Elephants Fight, It is the Grass that Suffers

    Matt Bivens”


  4. Lol!

    Liked by 1 person

    • Exactly. Context matters “all of a sudden”. Or doesn’t matter when it comes to stuff like blackface, where it only matters who is doing it. Or who did it, back in the day, anyway.


  5. Jonah Goldberg turns himself even further into a laughingstock.

    Recall that when he left FOX News, he claimed he was leaving because he didn’t want to be “complicit” in “lies”. LOL.


    • Interesting. I wonder if the idea might be to slowly turn CNN into a sort of NeverTrump center-to-center-right network (but still hates populism and nationalism).

      But the irony is thick. I think part of the Fox problem was he wasn’t getting screen time. Because he didn’t hold the correct opinions (for the opinion side) on Trump.


      • I suspect their ratings are suffering now that trump is gone and the left is in power.

        they probably are realizing they need to broaden their audience.


        • But who’s Johah’s audience?


        • Conservative, Inc. elites who didn’t like Trump. But also don’t like Biden. Primarily.


        • That’s not going to have any impact on their audience.

          Liked by 1 person

        • No. But if they make an honest effort at being balanced, it could. First time they stood up to the cancel mob their ratings would jump!

          Which isn’t going to happen. CNN is doomed.


        • John Malone is a businessman, not a political operative.


        • Which makes it seem likely that, if they intend on keeping CNN, he’d want better ratings. And also, given what’s coming out about Cuomo and Zucker, he’d probably like to seem at least a little less corrupt. And he’s said something, if I recall, about returning CNN back to the “report the news” days.

          And I think he might want to have an opinion-division more like the old CNN. If not Crossfire then something where there is a conservative-ish person like Jonah Goldberg, maybe some of the folks on the Commentary podcast (who are more conservative than Jonah but still hate Trump) on a panel. And some lefties.

          Who knows? I don’t. But I expect the goal will be to broaden CNN’s appeal, and I get the impression he thinks one of the ways you do that is with more actual news. Which by definition means less Brian Stelter and Don Lemon.


        • “I suspect their ratings are suffering now that trump is gone and the left is in power.”

          Their ratings have definitely suffered.

          “they probably are realizing they need to broaden their audience.”

          Jonah Goldberg is not going to do that for them any more than hiring Nicole Wallace at MSNBC did there.

          The Russell Brand video mocking CNN is a great watch.


  6. Interesting read, and the writer is actually sympathetic to the cause overall, but won’t cover up the issues:

    “The BLM Mystery Where did the money go?
    By Sean Campbell
    Jan. 31, 2022”


  7. The old “Blue Wall” guy has totally lost it:


    • This is some kind of socially-spread mental illness. Some sort of casual cultism, some kind of bizarre response to the information revolution that has so overloaded their brains they’ve created this quasi-religious fantasy world of themselves as bulwark of our-upon and victimized pure goodness and this horrible, evil Other that must be destroyed.

      You see the same thing from the “right” on Gab, plus a more traditional form of racism and anti-Semitism. The plus side is those QAnon folks aren’t coddled by the culture or protected by the media or praised as deep thinkers by politicians.

      Still, if I though the culture would just generally get over it in my lifetime I’d be looking forward to a general restoration of sanity but … not expecting it. A sane society doesn’t produce a Trump or senile Biden or a Hillary Clinton as president. Or nearly. And probably wouldn’t produce any of our future political results.

      Which is a long-winded way of saying that guy is nuts.


    • The left controls damn near everything and they think they are the lone voice in the wilderness.


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