Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P futures | 4,417 | 65.2 |
Oil (WTI) | 86.87 | 1.23 |
10 year government bond yield | 1.78% | |
30 year fixed rate mortgage | 3.73% |
Stocks are rebounding as we await the Fed’s decision. Bonds and MBS are flat. Oil is rallying on Ukraine tensions.
The Fed’s decision is set for 2:00 PM EST. While no changes in the Fed Funds rate are expected, the focus will be on the balance sheet and the reduction of the central bank’s holdings of mortgage backed securities and Treasuries. This could have an effect on MBS prices which would affect rates. Be careful locking around that time. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30.
Mortgage applications fell 7.1% last week, according to the MBA. The purchase index fell 2% while refis fell 13%. “All mortgage rates in MBA’s survey continued to climb, with the 30-year fixed rate rising for the fifth consecutive week to its highest level since March 2020,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. He noted the 30-year fixed rate is now 77 basis points higher than a year ago. “Unsurprisingly, borrower demand for refinances subsided, with applications falling for the fourth straight week. After almost two years of lower rates, there are not many borrowers left who have an incentive to refinance. Of those who are still in the market for a refinance, these higher rates are proving much less attractive to them.”
The IMF has downgraded its outlook for global growth from 4.9% to 4.4%. Supply chain issues are expected to last through mid-year and then abate.
Flagstar reported earnings that came in slightly below expectations. Mortgage originations fell to $10.7 billion, which is down 15% from the third quarter and 19% from a year ago. Gain on sale margins fell to 1.02%, which was a big decline from 1.5% in the third quarter and 1.93% a year ago. The MSR portfolio multiple increased from 1.08% to 1.12%.
Filed under: Economy |
Breyer is retiring from SCOTUS. Who will Manchin support?
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Breyer retiring is actually pretty insignificant, I think. Progressive judges are pretty much just cogs. We all know exactly how they are going to vote in any politically contentious case that anyone cares about. So whether it is him or some other left-wing legislator pretending to be a judge, which is what Biden will appoint, the results will be the same.
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true. they’re all the same.
what diversity box is unchecked? that will be the driver.
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Brent:
what diversity box is unchecked? that will be the driver.
Yep. My guess is it will be a black woman. Lesbian, if possible. The nomination process is too high profile for them to go trans at this point, so that box will remain unticked.
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Tranny black, male to female cause men will always make better women justices than women.
It’s a known, known.
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Before the current admin I would have agreed that it was too high profile for a trans nominee but now … eh … I expect someone full of diversity. Trans wouldn’t surprise me. If gay or lesbian they need to be in a same sex marriage. Also if they can find a judge that was a criminal that put themselves through lawschool in jail I can see that. Eh, I’m guessing a black lesbian. But trans would not be beyond possibility.
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it will be michelle obama
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Entirely possible.
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I actually think that would be a very smart choice politically, maximally popular with almost all the base … so I’m going to say no, they will make a worse and less popular choice.
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i’d rather her be on the court than run for president.
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It would be a good move politically. That or nominate Barack Obama. So I don’t think the Biden admin will do either. It will either be someone politically damaging to them everywhere but on Twitter or Kamala Harris to get her out of the VP spot.
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Hahahah…that is good.
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This also made me laugh.
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The meltdown over at PL for Carlson not being pro war enough is a sight to behold. The role reversal from the Bush years is amazing.
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It is indeed an opportunity for the left to fake its anti-commie bona fides.
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Except the Russians aren’t communist anymore.
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True, there are probably more honest-to-god commies in Kings County and Fairfax County than Moscow these days
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What the progressives & Democrats don’t get is that Republicans never hated the Russians per se. They hate the left in general and communists in particular.
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This strikes me as accurate:
And the horror:
God forbid people turn off the news.
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