Morning Report: Rates rise to begin the year

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,77617.2
Oil (WTI)74.67-0.58
10 year government bond yield 1.59%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.35%

Stocks are higher as we kick off the new year. Bonds and MBS are down.

Investors are returning to a market dominated by increasing COVID infections and the specter of inflation and a tightening cycle. For the mortgage business the focus will be on taking share in a shrinking market. Rate and term refis will fade into the background and purchase activity will be the focus. Cash-out refis will be another good source of business, along with investor activity.

The upcoming week will be dominated by the jobs report on Friday. We will also get the ISM surveys and the FOMC minutes. We are starting the new year with bonds getting slammed. It isn’t just in the US – German yields are up big as well.

73% of homebuyers and sellers say that inflation is influencing their buying and selling decisions, according to a survey from Redfin. “The way Americans interpret news about rising prices can have a variety of effects on their financial decisions, including homebuying,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Some people may delay buying because they’re worried that with prices rising on everything from food to fuel, now is not the right time to make a huge purchase. But others might move faster to find a house because they’re worried home prices and rent prices will increase even more, and they want to lock in a fixed payment.”

Construction spending rose 0.4% MOM and 9.3% YOY. Residential construction rose 0.9% MOM and 16.1% YOY. Housing start should, in theory, be a big driver of the economy in 2022. Lumber prices and skilled labor will be the big constraints.

12 Responses

    • They don’t seem to ever do these kind of backgrounders for the George Floyds of the world. Weird, that.

      “the future insurrectionist”

      Really, AP? Really? She was constantly planning to overtake the government and was breaking into the capitol, Tom Cruise style, to seize the levers of power?

      “though the officer who shot her was cleared of any wrongdoing by two prior federal investigations.”

      And for the AP, that’s the end of it! Just like when a police department clears a cop of any wrong doing when they’ve shot any given criminal with a rap sheet a mile long. That’s the end of it! All done!

      “But the life of the Air Force veteran from California, who died while wearing a Trump campaign flag wrapped around her shoulders like a cape”

      So much news! They are just newsing all over the place.

      “where police officers were evacuating members of Congress from the mob supporting Trump’s false claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen”

      Modifiers like this just stick out like a sore thumb. “False” is not necessary in that sentence, will convince no one, and does so much to make what’s supposed to be a “news” story sound like overt propaganda. It’s just “because you might to stupid to know, let me tell you: the claim is false and wrong! Experts have said so. End of story. Don’t do your own research on it, doing your own research is dangerous. Listen to the experts. This is totally news and definitely not propaganda of any kind. I’ve go a degree!”

      “She was one of five people who died during or immediately after the riot”

      But not murdered by the police, although the same AP will routinely describe any unarmed minority shot by police (and often armed minorities, I expect–I’ve seen that, don’t know if the AP has done it) as having been murdered. They’d certainly at least say “killed”.

      How much energy did the AP spend digging up the dirt on DOMESTIC TERRORIST, KNOWN INSURRECTIONIST, AND Q-ANON MASTERMIND Ashli Babbit?

      They basically get handed Hunter Biden’s laptop, apparently full evidence of corruption regarding the sitting president and his family, and yawn. Nothing there! A guy (with lots of overtly racist rants to find of social media) runs down a bunch of people parading in Wisconsin and . . . nope, nothing to investitgate there. But they will for sure get the bottom of just how much a crazy bitch Ashli Babbit really was!

      Also, you always get super-objective newsworthy information about the woman who stole your husband from you.

      I’m guessing AP compensated Norris to some degree for this VITAL information the public must know about the REAL Ashli Babbit.

      That said, I’m not at all surprised to discover Ashli Babbit was not quite right in the head. It’s just normally you’re not allowed to shoot women for that.

      “In the year since Babbitt’s death, Trump and many Republicans in Congress have sought to recast the Jan. 6 insurrection as nonviolent — a contention directly contradicted by hours of video footage and the public testimony of Capitol Police officers”

      That may be true of Trump but generally I’ve heard folks on the right casting it as a “riot”–not non-violent–and sometimes blaming antifa or the FBI (credibly, IMO, at least to some extent) or the Capitol police. Also in those hours of video footage you have one instigator known to be an antifa, anti-trump type egging everybody on and working to be one of the first people to break in) and then those odd fellows who really seem to be insisting they had to get into the Capitol building and are identified and all over the videos yet the FBI strangely doesn’t seem to be interested in arresting them or anything. But the AP doesn’t mention any of that . . . not newsworthy, no doubt.

      Interesting the mention specific Q-Anon claims about Democrats running a pedophile ring but nothing about the questions about Ray Epps being one of the main instigators of telling people “they had to get into the Capitol, that’s what they were there for” and yet the FBI showing a remarkable lack of curiosity about the guy (allegedly).

      “The Capitol Police officer who shot Babbitt, Lt. Michael Byrd, said in a televised interview in August that he fired as a “last resort.” When he pulled the trigger, he said, he had no idea whether the person jumping through the window was armed.”

      This is not credible. Again, Babbit was taking her life in her own hands breaking into a federal building. Yes, many people were doing it and have done similar things without getting shot but still . . . logic should tell you it’s a bad and dangerous idea, given the number of people who HAVE gotten shot, with extreme prejudice, doing things like running towards the Whitehouse. It was not a last resort, however, and I don’t understand why they are putting that way. Why not just say: “You break into the Capitol, you get what you get.”


      • The reason for all the modifiers is because progressives demand agitation, propaganda versus the news. If you’re not literally calling political opponents “insurrectionists” or “bigots” then you’re working to actively support them.

        Also, it’s plain fascinating to me that Progressives think this will motivate people, even their own base, to vote. I say keep going, expel sitting members and refuse to seat future elected ones. Convict Trump of a felony and then refuse to swear him in. No system lasts so let’s get on with it. Plus, the spectacle will be epic!


    • Greenwald was commenting about this earlier.


  1. It’s right-wing racism all the way down.


  2. If the Washington Post and the New York Times are any indication, progressive hysteria over 1/6 is building to a fever pitch for the one year anniversary.


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