Morning Report: Quiet week ahead

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 4,555 -55.2
Oil (WTI) 67.97 -2.88
10 year government bond yield   1.39%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   3.30%

Stocks are lower this morning on COVID lockdown fears. Bonds and MBS are up small.


The upcoming week should be relatively quiet, especially with Christmas Eve on Friday. In terms of economic data, we will get the third revision to Q3 GDP on Wednesday and Personal Incomes / Spending on Thursday. Markets are closed on Friday.


The Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased in November, according to the Conference Board. “Eight of the ten indicators that comprise The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in November. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices, the interest rate spread, the ISM® New Orders Index, building permits, the Leading Credit Index™ (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials*. The only negative contributor was average consumer expectations for business conditions, while the manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft* held steady in November.”


Joe Manchin is a no on the Build Back Better bill. It should be a non-event economically, though it does give the Fed a little more breathing room.


Rents are rising rapidly, in tandem with higher home prices. “First inflation came for the for-sale housing market, and now it is coming for the rental market,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Many people have been priced out of the for-sale market and are looking to rent instead, but that demand is pushing up rents. Anyone who bought a home before this year can pat themselves on the back because their mortgage payments are fixed, meaning their biggest recurring expense is immune to inflation. If you are looking to buy or rent now, there’s nowhere to hide from inflation when it comes to housing costs. The good news is that the tight labor market means it’s a great time to move somewhere more affordable. Chances are good that no matter where you go, you’ll be able to find a new job relatively quickly.”




10 Responses

  1. Lol


  2. This should be interesting:

    “White House not budging on Feb. 1 end to student loans forgiveness
    12/18/2021 11:48 AM EST

    Multiple sources familiar with what was said at the meeting described the administration’s message as effectively that borrowers had two years to prepare for this and knew the pause wouldn’t last forever. One administration official in the meeting suggested that overall, the pandemic was trending in the right direction, and that resuming student loan payments is part of getting back to normal.

    The White House also “pulled that kind of bullsh– of ‘the fundamentals of the economy are strong,’ which is devoid of reality,” the first source familiar with the conversation added. “Yeah, sure, the stock market may be better. Unemployment numbers are better — yes, absolutely. But in terms of real wages, in terms of how people are feeling in their pocketbook, it’s just completely delusional.””


  3. Oh fuck these people. How self serving can you get?:

    “Pelosi announces plans for ‘solemn observance’ of one-year anniversary of Jan. 6 insurrection

    By Amy B Wang
    Today at 3:21 p.m. EST

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has indicated there will be a “full program of events” to mark the first anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurrection, in which a pro-Trump mob stormed the U.S. Capitol to try to stop the confirmation of President Biden’s electoral college win, a siege that resulted in five deaths and left some 140 law enforcement officers injured.

    In a letter to the Democratic caucus Monday, Pelosi (D-Calif.) noted the House would not be in session the first week of January but said some members had expressed interest in being involved in commemoration activities.

    “Already, preparations are underway for a full program of events, including a discussion among historians about the narrative of that day; an opportunity for Members to share their experiences and reflections from that day; and a prayerful vigil in the evening,” Pelosi wrote.”


    • The left has nothing to cheer about this time of year. it gives them some sort of fulfillment.


    • Politicians will be as self-serving as the media and their constituents allow.

      to mark the first anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurrection, in which a pro-Trump mob stormed the U.S. Capitol to try to stop the confirmation of President Biden’s electoral college win, a siege that resulted in five deaths and left some 140 law enforcement officers injured.

      The accuracy of that is questionable and the implication is just wrong, and no context of when progressives (less dramatically) have “taken over the capital” in protest–with the support of congresscritters on the left, the spotty security present that day, the strange issue of Ray Epps and the video documentation that shows him being a prime mover in the “let’s go into the capitol” thing, but the FBI is uninterested in him–and so on.

      The story is just 100% the Democratic narrative. If you were a politician and the press would do it for you, you’d probably end up being pretty self-serving, too. I probably would anyway, because why not? What’s the downside? 🙂


  4. Anyone heard from Mark lately? He hasn’t posted anything in nearly a month. Just wondering if he is ok.


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