Morning Report: Job openings rise

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 4,681 -17.2
Oil (WTI) 71.48 -0.88
10 year government bond yield   1.48%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   3.35%

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 184k last week, which included the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Initial Jobless Claims had remained stubbornly high, but it looks like it might have finally turned the corner.

 

Meanwhile, job openings were close to record levels at 11 million. The quits rate edged down to 2.8% after hitting a high in September. The quits rate is one of the leading indicators of wage inflation, and we are certainly seeing evidence of wage inflation – witness the lousy productivity numbers from a couple of days ago.

 

Wage inflation will be the story for the Fed as it wrestles with inflation. Despite the strength of the labor market, numbers like the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate show that there is still additional supply in the labor market. These numbers represent people who were working before the pandemic, and are not now. The unemployment rate doesn’t count people who haven’t worked for over 6 months, so those folks are not reflected in that number.

Ideally, if the people who exited the labor force during the last 2 years come back, it could help alleviate the shortages we are seeing. A shortage of workers ultimately limits the potential economic output of the economy and acts as a governor on the economy. Faster growth then translates into higher inflation.

 

Homeowner equity increased 31% in the third quarter, according to CoreLogic. This is a $3.2 trillion increase. The average homeowner picked up about $57,000 in equity over the past year. Frank Martell, CEO of CoreLogic said “Not only have equity gains helped homeowners more seamlessly transition out of forbearance and avoid a distressed sale, but they’ve also enabled many to continue building their wealth. This financial reserve will be especially helpful for homeowners looking to fund renovation projects.“

This increase in homeowner equity means that refinance activity will not be entirely dependent on interest rates. Cash-out debt refinancings will remain a great source of loans and represent evergreen activity.

 

 

9 Responses

  1. This should be good:

    “The other reason it’s been quiet: I’ve been working on a feature on the Loudoun County business, a frustrating story that for a while was seeming more and more obscure every time I picked up the phone. After a month of research, interviews, and FOIA requests, though, I’m finally nearing the end, and hope to have the first part of a series out by Friday.

    Loudoun might be the worst case of media malpractice I’ve come across in my career. Residents should be furious. Noted Zoom onanist and occasional CNN legal expert Jeffrey Toobin declared blithely, “It’s about white supremacy,” but the core of the years-long schools controversy turns out to be a dispute over gifted admissions that mainly concerns two of the county’s nonwhite demographics, making such analyses wrong to a degree that’s not easy to achieve even on purpose.

    And that’s just the beginning. Almost everything I’d seen published or aired about that case in national coverage turned out to be wrong on some level, which made reporting it out a build-from-scratch exercise.”

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/interview-with-joe-rogan

    Like

  2. This strikes me as a good summation on how progressives view the moment and why they are lashing out even though they control the House, Senate and Presidency.

    Like

    • Confronting the free fall of the New Deal, Mr. Carter unleashed a stunning strike of neoliberal and neoconservative measures: deregulation of entire industries; appointment of the anti-labor Paul Volcker to the Fed; a military buildup; and renewed confrontation with the Soviet Union. These defied his party’s orthodoxies and unraveled its coalition. Reagan ended the New Deal regime, but Mr. Carter prepared the way.

      Completely oblivious that the New Deal regulatory structure fell apart because of inflation. That is why Volcker, deregulation, and Reagan came in. people get pissed when inflation makes them rich according to the IRS, but not rich when they go to the supermarket.

      The Reagan Revolution died in 2008. We have been run by, and for, the left ever since. Every item on the social liberal wish list has been crossed off. The Fed has increased the size of its balance sheet tenfold, and we are spending at WWII levels.

      Trump was barely even a speedbump. His executive orders were stymied by the courts, the administrative state didn’t listen to him, and spending continued to rise.

      We are thirteen years into a Progressive era. IMO, this era is on the back 9.

      Like

    • No party has unlimited political capital.

      The left might not have gotten universal healthcare or a carbon tax, but they got transgender bathrooms.

      Like

      • “An independent social movement is what Mr. Biden does not have. Until he or a successor does, we may be waiting on a reconstruction that is ready to be made but insufficiently desired.”

        Yeah, this statement at the end of the piece was wrong. He does have one, it’s just focused on pronoun usage and canceling people, not leftist economics or unions. I.e.the Successor Ideology.

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    • Donald Trump’s candidacy in 2016 suggested that conservative orthodoxies of slashing Social Security and Medicare

      And when have the Republicans EVER slashed social security or Medicare?

      I know it’s the NYT but that’s just lazy writing.

      Like

  3. Worth noting:

    “New York City poised to become the largest municipality in the U.S. to allow noncitizens to vote in local elections”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/new-york-noncitizen-voting/2021/12/09/b9ef5748-5848-11ec-a808-3197a22b19fa_story.html

    Like

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