Morning Report: The economy added 210k jobs in November

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 4,591 15.2
Oil (WTI) 68.37 1.98
10 year government bond yield   1.46%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   3.32%

Stocks are higher this morning after the jobs report. Bonds and MBS are down.

 

The economy added 210k jobs in November, which came in below the the Street estimate of 545,000. Since this is the headline number, it will be the focus, however the internals of the report are pretty good. The unemployment rate fell 0.3% to 4.2% while average hourly earnings rose 4.8% on a YOY basis.

The labor force participation rate rose to 61.8% while the employment-population ratio increased to 59.2%. Both numbers are still well below where they were pre-COVID, however. FWIW, there is a pretty big disconnect between the Establishment survey (which asks employers) and the Household survey (which talks to people). Employers reported an increase of 210k jobs while households showed an increase of 1.1 million.

Overall, it shows that the labor market is on the mend, and the increases in wages are no longer just being driven by technical factors. The Great Resignation continues as we saw a record 4.4 million people quit their jobs in September. Overall, the economy is making progress towards full employment, which gives the Fed the wiggle room policy-wise to attack inflation more aggressively.

Bonds sold off on the report, despite the miss on the payroll number. I think the household survey is telling the real story this month, not the establishment survey.

 

The ISM Services Report hit an all-time high last month, which is another data point that the economy is starting to re-accelerate. Business Activity and Employment were the big drivers of the increase. Interestingly prices are still rising, but the rate of growth is decelerating.

If you look at the statements from businesses, shortages of materials and labor continue to be a constraint, however demand remains strong.

19 Responses

  1. False equivalence wingnut!

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    • It’s all about shaping the narrative. And when you’re actively engaged in election fraud operations, as Abrams might well be, it’s probably best to downplay the idea that there’s election fraud. Also she’s planning to run and complaining it was stolen from you last time is not actually the best strategy, I don’t think.

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    • How long did the left litigate Florida?

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      • They still are. McAuliffe was whining about it in October.

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      • Obviously, there are some on the left that still complain about it now (especially amongst politicians seeking to revise election law in such a way that Democrats can no longer lose elections) but it was a major and oft-referenced narrative for the 8 years of the Bush admin and petered off only after Obama won.

        And arguably the narrative switch with Abrams and Clinton from having constantly suggested the election was stolen and the victor was not legitimate to “I never said that, never!” was when Trump’s saying the election was stolen (and the assertions of those who agree with them) became characterized as anti-Democratic and domestic terrorism. Not that they can’t, and won’t, make the assertion that only Republicans can ever actually win elections illegitimately, so it’s entirely different when they say their election was stolen than when a Republican does the same thing.

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  2. Funny:

    Liked by 1 person

  3. NYT reaches a new depth of woke stupidity:

    And there’s this quote from the piece:

    “Is “West Side Story” a Confederate statue?”

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  4. Scott, Andrew Sullivan tries to distinguish between Roe & Obergefell.

    https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/why-roe-will-fall-and-obergefell-77a

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    • jnc:

      Scott, Andrew Sullivan tries to distinguish between Roe & Obergefell.

      Interesting article. As a purely descriptive matter, I think he is right about why it is both more likely and more important that Roe/Casey get overturned. But as a Constitutional matter, Obergefell plainly has no more legitimacy than does Roe/Casey. If Roe represents “giving up on liberal democracy”, so does Obergefell.

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      • The course has given up on liberal Democracy for most of the duration of the court. At least since John Marshall. The remedy to that would typically be a constitutional amendment, as the 14th amendment essentially obviated the Dred Scott decision, for example.

        But the present state of congress is that it is a platform for developing a larger social media following and then getting speaking gigs on cable news networks, amongst other places, and sometimes just for getting likes and going viral. So unlikely that remedy will ever be sought again, much less successfully executed.

        Although I’d still argue the legislature could make an interstate commerce argument about abortion not be unduly restricted by the states. Not that it would be rational or fact-based, but I think they could do it and pass it and likely the SCOTUS would find it legitimate.

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  5. The Make France Great Again candidate for the French presidency:

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