Morning Report: Big week for data ahead

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 4,643 48.2
Oil (WTI) 72.48 4.48
10 year government bond yield   1.58%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   3.36%

Stocks are rebounding today after getting smacked on Friday. Bonds and MBS are down.


Stocks were hit hard late last week on news about a new variant of COVID – Omicron. The moves were probably exaggerated given that many participants were taking Friday off, so we’ll see if this move has legs.


Black Friday sales were up 48% compared to last year’s depressed level. That said, they were below 2019. Lots of Black Friday sales make me wonder if demand is slipping. With all of the apparent shortages out there, I thought retailers would not need to cut prices to get business.


We have a big week for data. The most important numbers will probably be the FHFA House Price Index tomorrow, which will determine the conforming loan limits for 2022. The jobs report on Friday will be big, along with ISM data and construction spending. Jerome Powell also speaks tomorrow.


More Fed officials are comfortable with increasing the pace of tapering and raising rates more quickly. “Various participants noted that the (policy-setting) Committee should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for the federal funds rate sooner than participants currently anticipated if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Committee’s objectives,” the Fed said in the minutes.


Pending Home Sales rose 7.5% in October, according to NAR. “Motivated by fast-rising rents and the anticipated increase in mortgage rates, consumers that are on strong financial footing are signing contracts to purchase a home sooner rather than later,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “This solid buying is a testament to demand still being relatively high, as it is occurring during a time when inventory is still markedly low. The notable gain in October assures that total existing-home sales in 2021 will exceed 6 million, which will shape up to be the best performance in 15 years.” The hottest markets were Jacksonville, Tampa, Dallas and Nashville.

21 Responses

  1. You know vaccine mandate insanity has reached a peak when Euthanasia societies start requiring proof of vaccine before they will kill you.

    Liked by 1 person

    • PL has the answer: It’s time for the MSM to stop going easy on Trump.

      They are of course incapable of taking actual advice that might reduce Trump’s chances because that would also impact their ratings.


      • The left should be elated if Trump runs. He won’t get the R nom and will run as an independent


        • Why wouldn’t he get the nomination? Are they going to add Super delegates the way that the Democrats did or get rid of primaries?


        • I’m assuming Rs will figure something out to prevent him.


        • It would completely destroy the party, which, ultimately, might be good. I think they know this and that’s why Desantis and Cruz wont run against Trump if he decides to run. It will be fun to watch the has been’s and never wuzzer’s try and get hammered.


        • They failed at that last time and that was before he won the general election.


      • I read the WaPo argument is an urging of the MSM to do better propaganda and propagandize more energetically.

        It’s basically an argument for more of what they’ve been doing, and continuing to reframe an Republican victories as the result of lies and racism. They need to make it clear that Republican voters are all evil, brainwashed and/or stupid—according to Sargent. That’s how they avoid Trump winning!

        If this is how the media goes—he mentions Youngkin, but not how desperately the Dems tried to tie him to Trump, to the point of actually lying about Trump coming down to Virginia to stump for Youngkin when that didn’t happen … if that’s how they go, good luck to them. It gives the GOP an opportunity to focus on house, senate, governorships, and state legislatures. Which the GOP will probably fail to do, but still.

        Short-response: The takeaway is the those in the media bubble should reinforce the bubble and always stay in the bubble and never leave it no matter what. That’s how you beat Trump!


        • It is the MOAR COWBELL argument. I think the media was too clever by half in 2016. While Trump’s antics drew eyeballs, I think the main motivation was to stir the pot in the R party.

          It would be the same as if some dingbat like Alyssa Milano tried to get the D nomination. Fox would make hay with it.

          They just never thought he could possibly win.


      • The replies to the tweet about focusing less on Trump are interesting. There’s so much speculation about how the GOP are going to steal future elections. Which if you swapped out “Dems” for GOP would make them sound exactly like STOP THE STEAL Trumpers.

        And Vice versa. The lack of self-awareness from hard-partisans. “Of course THEIR paranoia about stolen elections is crazy and a BIG LIE but our exact same paranoia is just obviously true and clearly the only reason we might lose any election ever.” AND yet they can’t imagine any scenario where questions about the 2020 elections would be reasonable or made in good faith.


        • KW:

          AND yet they can’t imagine any scenario where questions about the 2020 elections would be reasonable or made in good faith.

          Despite the fact that the 2020 election was held under unique circumstances and with fairly significant changes to election procedures/laws pushed through as “emergency” measures because of a pandemic.


        • fairly significant changes to election procedures/laws pushed through as “emergency” measures because of a pandemic.

          I’d add “Unconstitutional” before the word “changes” as most State legislatures did not approve those changes.


        • Would they just accept the DHS pronouncing a Republican victory in a close election during a pandemic where lots of unprecedented changes to voting were made with not a lot of oversight “the most secure election ever”. They wouldn’t and they shouldn’t.

          If Trump had won and they had done that I would have said that was freaking bonkers. No matter who won how could they make that pronouncement in seriousness, and how could anybody take it seriously? The most charitable argument is that it was a noble lie to provide legitimacy to the elections. But there’s no way that was the most secure election ever, nor any way the DHS could make that determination honestly.


        • And a dozen bellwethers proved to be non-predictive when they always had (or almost always had) before. While there are no doubt explanations for that other than fraud, that novel and interesting changes in the electoral landscape provoked no interest in investigation by political pundits or the media—I find that odd and not reassuring.


        • Again, projection. The left never acts in good faith, so they cannot imagine the right doing so.


    • All this shit is 110% projection


    • Panic, impotence and jealousy. And projection. As what is being described is the same sort of tactics the left uses for similar reasons. The objection is more than the other side seems to be better positioning itself to manage elections how they want to—when it should be Good Progressives tweaking elections for the correct outcome.

      All part of the game, I guess.


  2. This is good:


    • It’s pithy but don’t think it captures the depth of the problem—-one of the problems being how unrepresentative the Twitterverse is if the general public, which can be seen by the replies—which are full of people modifying the metaphor to blame Biden’s policy failures entirely on the GOP.

      Which is a stretch as Republicans don’t seem to be doing much, other than refusing to vote for BBB.

      But also I suspect there’s a lot more informing popular sentiment beyond the ambitions of BBB. Even there is like to see polling of specific programs and outlays in the infrastructure bill and BBB. Not sure the details would be particularly popular with the general public …

      But again: the Dems face more troubles than a focus on BBB. Inflation and supply chain issues and COVID plus the debacle of Afghanistan, plus all the issues around CRT is one hell of a broken toilet. Oh and rising crime. Plus Biden’s obviously diminished cognition. Attempting to define disgruntled parents as domestic terrorists. Attempts at vaccine mandates given large swaths of traditional Democrat coalitions are part of the antivax crowd. Continually declining trust in the media. Exhaustion with cancel culture.

      The metaphor is fine as a critique of the over-ambition of Democrats—but should also add that now not only is the toilet broken but the air conditioner won’t come on and the lights in several parts of the house aren’t working, and the plumber is telling you that’s a feature, not a bug.


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