Morning Report: Home sales down 10%

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures4,690-10.2
Oil (WTI)76.35-2.63
10 year government bond yield 1.52%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.28%

Stocks are lower as parts of Europe re-enter lockdown mode. Bonds and MBS are up.

Home sales were down 6.2% MOM and 10.2% YOY, according to data from Re/Max. “We’re seeing the effects of a long, sustained run-up in prices and month-over-month home sales and the market may be moving past the days of immediate sales, multiple offers and bidding wars on virtually every property,” said Nick Bailey, president of RE/MAX, LLC. “That’s okay — the October dip in sales, especially after such a busy September, is a step toward a more balanced market and was somewhat overdue.”

Redfin predicts that we will have a more balanced housing market in 2022 as listings increase. The company expects mortgage rates to rise to 3.6%, and for new listings to hit a 10-year high. Rents are expected to increase 7% as well.

Separately, Redfin’s Home Demand Index hit an all-time high. “The economy is recovering strongly and mortgage rates are still near all-time lows. Those two forces combined have caused homebuying demand to hit a record high,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “People who tried to buy a home in the spring are coming back for round two, only to find the market is still quite difficult because of a lack of homes for sale. A lot of homebuyers wish they had bought last year, now that it’s not just homes that are more expensive, but also gas, groceries and dining out. Many buyers today are limited to move-in ready homes because it is so difficult and expensive to purchase new appliances or find contractors to make improvements.”

23 Responses

  1. I’m the designee for my racist group. Anybody else here?

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    • That is the narrative they’re going with?

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      • Sure, fits with their already completely fictional view of the world today.

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      • Sample size of 1, but I overheard some high school kids talking about how the prosecutor screwed up.

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        • Screwed up the presentation of the case or the act of bringing the case in the first place?

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        • I don’t know. Just overheard it passing by in the grocery store

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        • I had some friends over for dinner on Saturday, and one of them, an Australian, remarked (unprompted by me…I was hoping to avoid the subject) that he had just watched the Rittenhouse videos for the first time, and he seemed shocked and surprised to discover that the shooting really did appear to be in self-defense. Surprised, I guess, because he had previously been just hearing about it via the BBC, which naturally led him to think it was unjustified.

          The main point I made was to question why the UK media was even covering the Rittenhouse trial. The only reason for them to cover it at all was to drive a certain narrative, so ultimately the facts didn’t really matter. Which is why he didn’t get them until he watched the video first hand.

          Hopefully this will have red-pilled him with regard to the utter corruption of the BBC.

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        • It’s why this kind of narrative control ultimately requires police enforcement and total state control of all media. Eventually even true believers will see the holes in the narrative.

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        • Biden claims to include himself among those who are “angry and concerned” over the Rittenhouse verdict. The obvious question that must be put to him now is:

          Why?

          Specifically, I would want to know how much of the trial he actually watched or followed first hand, and what evidence exactly leads him to think that the jury came to the wrong decision.

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        • Well, originally he said he respected the verdict and everybody should but then kind of changed his mind and is weighing in on it which suggests there are factions in the Whitehouse that are . . . opposed on a lot of these Twitter-fueled issues. Which makes some of the communication a little incoherent.

          As to why he’s angry and concerned I’m sure he was told a white supremacists shot some peaceful protestors and so that’s why he opposes trial by jury now and wants to replace it with Judicial Experts who make better decisions than random citizens.

          I mean, the last part I don’t think they are going for yet but I’m assuming that’s the end-goal. What good is a judicial system if it can’t be used to universally enforce your edicts irrespective of current law or who really did what?

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        • Biden has to deal with the fact that the majority of the D party base operates primarily out of emotion, not logic.

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