Morning Report: Home price appreciation continues its torrid pace

 

Stocks are higher this morning as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

Home Prices rose 18.5% YOY, according to the latest FHFA House Price Index. “Annual house price gains remained extremely high in August but the pace of month-over-month gains continues to decelerate,” said Dr. Lynn Fisher, FHFA’s Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics. “This does not mean house prices are at risk of declining—far from it, they continue to climb at a double-digit pace in all regions—but it does suggest we may have seen the peak in annual gains for the time being.”

Based on that home price appreciation gain, we should see 2022 conforming loan limits around $650k. Of course the FHFA might not increase it by that much. Next month’s report will be the one FHFA uses to set the new limit.

 

The share of loans in forbearance fell to 2.28% last week, according to the MBA. “Following two weeks of rapid declines, the share of loans in forbearance dropped again, but at a reduced rate. As reported in the past, many servicers process forbearance exits at the beginning of the month, therefore it is not surprising to see the pace of exits slow again mid-month,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The composition of loans in forbearance is evolving. More than 25% of loans in forbearance are now made up of new forbearance requests and re-entries, while many other homeowners who have reached the end of 18-month terms are successfully exiting into deferrals or modifications.”

 

Separately, Treasury distributed about $2.8 billion worth of rental aid in September. While the eviction moratoriums issued by the Center for Disease Control have expired, many states still prohibit foreclosures and evictions.

37 Responses

  1. The US Treasury Department is all in on the neo-racism of the left.

    https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0431

    Thanks, Biden voters!

    Like

    • U.S. Department of the Treasury Appoints First Counselor for Racial Equity

      Well, that sounds utterly Soviet.

      That said, what is a “counselor” in this context?

      I also found it interesting to learn that the “average disparities” between black and white home ownership, in dollar terms, is almost all at the high-end–there are more white billionaires with more expensive homes than black billionaires. Basically, as I understand it, at the very high-end there’s a lot more superwealthy white people with more high-value real estate at higher prices than black people. But for the vast majority of voters, it’s much closer, and sometimes rates of black home ownership have increased faster than white home ownership. So this is almost exclusively a boutique issue with the top 5% to 10% of homeowners.

      So the inequities are, in fact, almost all amongst the millionaire and billionaire class. Not upper-middle class to lower-middle-class. But the argument is framed as if the numbers apply to middle-class homeowners, when they don’t.

      Not sure of all the details there but it sounds right. I lived in a majority-minority area and typically even in the suburbs you have as many minority neighbors as white neighbors, if not more. The equity does not seem so significant (or existent in middle-class neighborhoods) that it requires a special Czar.

      Although some of this seems to be a thing that is endemic on the left: fighting the battles of 50 years ago. They tackle the problems that society in general largely solved decades ago, and then award themselves for their good intentions. The problem is that it requires that they pretend largely solved problems are still awful and contemporary and require massive government action to ameliorate.

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    • Maybe I’m under-reacting, but this sounds like the sort of thing organizations do when they don’t actually want to make any kind of real changes.

      “Ms. Bowdler will be charged with coordinating Treasury’s efforts to advance racial equity including engaging with diverse communities throughout the country and to identify and mitigate barriers to accessing benefits and opportunities with the Department.”

      Sounds like an outreach coordinator.

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      • jnc:

        Maybe I’m under-reacting, but this sounds like the sort of thing organizations do when they don’t actually want to make any kind of real changes.

        I think it is the sort of thing that activists do in order to establish new premises on which future action will be based. The whole point of this is to both further establish the legitimacy of, and to embed into the purpose of government, this neo-racist notion of “racial equity”. Once it exists as an accepted part of the Treasury mission, it will then become much easier – and indeed required – to take real action in the name of this “equity”.

        Corporate HR departments didn’t jump from non-discrimination policies to firing people for wrong-think overnight. They first hired “diversity and inclusion” officers to work on “expanding outreach” to “underrepresented” demographics that were allegedly “historically discriminated against”. Their original mission didn’t have a whole lot of substance to it either. Over time, however, these neo-racist/sexist loons have reproduced like rabbits and they now control the entire corporate environment.

        I think the Overton Window has already moved way too far left for those of us who care about traditional American ideals and values to remain so complacent in the face of what is in fact a growing assault on those ideals and values.

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        • I also suspect that the companies that are under the radar of the woke left will outperform the big companies that are being held down by the Leftist Lilliputians.

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        • The advantage of the position being created in treasury is that a new administration could potentially un-create it. Not that it will but at least it’s possible.

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  2. Observation – I see more and more fast food restaurants dealing with staff shortages by closing the dining areas and going to drive through only.

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  3. Good piece:

    “It’s Important To Remember That People Being Offensive Isn’t News

    And perhaps more importantly, it isn’t politics.

    Shant Mesrobian


    The perniciousness of this era of woke controversies and cancellations is that while the public is fed a continuous diet of cultural flash points and battlefields on which to wage war with one another, these events cleverly smuggle in one thing that everyone subconsciously has to agree on: That this is your business. Our business. Public business. Forming an opinion about this, regardless of what that opinion might be, requires accepting that premise. Whatever your position might be, you have accepted these terms of engagement.

    And that’s why it’s incredibly important to remember that none of this is any of your business.”

    https://www.inquiremore.com/p/its-important-to-remember-that-people

    Like

  4. JESUS! Are Republicans tone-fucking-deaf!


    Romney Rails Against Billionaire Tax
    Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) has been making the rounds in his opposition to the billionaire tax currently being negotiated by Democrats as a potential major revenue stream.

    He called it “a really bad idea if you’re encouraging entrepreneurship and job creation” to reporters Tuesday.

    He was also spotted chatting to Manchin on the Senate floor; he said in response to a question about the conversation that the two “always” discuss reconciliation.

    Why would he and McConnell want Republicans to win after all?

    At a minimum keep your worthless sucks shut!

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/live-blog/democrats-huddle-as-caucus-ascertains-whatll-happen-this-week

    Like

    • Romney has finally found something he disagrees with the Democrats on!

      The billionaire tax is unconstitutional as proposed so why is he bothering? And why the fudge is he going on about entrepreneurship when the federal government doesn’t have the power to levy taxes on wealth. Or property.

      I’m sure they’d find a way around the constitution but still that should be his starting point.

      Like

  5. Good piece:

    “Bad News
    By Joseph Bernstein
    Selling the story of disinformation

    What is to be done with all the bad content? In March, the Aspen Institute announced that it would convene an exquisitely nonpartisan Commission on Information Disorder, co-chaired by Katie Couric, which would “deliver recommendations for how the country can respond to this modern-day crisis of faith in key institutions.” The fifteen commissioners include Yasmin Green, the director of research and development for Jigsaw, a technology incubator within Google that “explores threats to open societies”; Garry Kasparov, the chess champion and Kremlin critic; Alex Stamos, formerly Facebook’s chief security officer and now the director of the Stanford Internet Observatory; Kathryn Murdoch, Rupert Murdoch’s estranged daughter-in-law; and Prince Harry, Prince Charles’s estranged son. Among the commission’s goals is to determine “how government, private industry, and civil society can work together . . . to engage disaffected populations who have lost faith in evidence-based reality,” faith being a well-known prerequisite for evidence-based reality.”

    https://harpers.org/archive/2021/09/bad-news-selling-the-story-of-disinformation/

    Like

    • I love the fact that institutional trust is very high, it’s as it should be and things get super-fucked up when people trust institutions. Perfect example, Trump trust Fauci and look where that got us, more COVID, more death and eventually Biden.

      I meant to write that institutional mistrust is very high.

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      • My version of that is that you know you are in real trouble when everyone agrees on the plan and it passes easily.

        Bipartisan consensus is usually the harbinger of problems down the road.

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    • …to engage disaffected populations who have lost faith in evidence-based reality,” faith being a well-known prerequisite for evidence-based reality.

      Awesome.

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    • That article encapsulates everything I cannot stand about the left. They think their shitty ideas and behavior are nothing more than a marketing problem that can be solved by jiggering the language and using censorship.

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      • I love how they avoid the question of whether or not factually accurate statements can be considered as “disinformation”. I’m pretty sure all of them would regard the reporting on the DNC E-mails and Hunter Biden’s laptop as disinformation, even though it’s all true.

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        • The left considers “lack of context” or a different framing to be disinformation

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        • Lack of context for progressives and Democrats. On the other hand they will actively cut-and-paste stories about Republicans to mischaracterize them to get to a “deep truth”.

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        • of course. the left pays calvinball. and now they are miffed because the other side understands the game they are playing and is opting out

          Like

  6. The Biden administration announces its National Strategy on Gender Equity and Equality. (Gee, there is that word again…equity. I wonder why it keeps popping up in Biden admin initiatives?)

    Thanks again, NeverTrumpers!

    #priorities

    Like

  7. And thus we continue to plummet down that slippery slope that SSM supporters, against all evidence and logic, denied and denied existed.

    https://reason.com/2021/03/10/cambridge-will-recognize-polyamorous-partnerships-and-other-domestic-arrangements-with-more-than-2-adults/

    The city of Cambridge, Massachusetts, will become the second municipality in the country to legalize domestic partnerships between three or more people. On Monday, Cambridge City Council approved an ordinance amending the city’s existing statute to stipulate that a domestic partnership needn’t only include two partners.

    Now, a domestic partnership in Cambridge “means the entity formed by two or more persons” who are not related and file a registration declaring that they’re “in a relationship of mutual support, caring and commitment and intend to remain in such a relationship” and “consider themselves to be a family.”*

    The new language removes the requirement that all individuals in a domestic partnership must reside together. It also does away with a section declaring that domestic partners must submit to the city various pieces of evidence proving their familial relationship.

    Like

    • “ The new language removes the requirement that all individuals in a domestic partnership must reside together. It also does away with a section declaring that domestic partners must submit to the city various pieces of evidence proving their familial relationship.”

      So the point is to nuke marriage. If you can be married and the same sex, not live together, and in no other way “be married” that marriage is completely undifferentiated from any other kind of relationship or even non-relationship.

      I brought polygamy up on WaPo in the SSM argument and the first response was that it was a right wing talking point, trying to be bad by equating polygamy with homosexuality, etc. to which I responded by asking what their argument was as to why polygamy was bad and why polygamist should be discriminated against and why in that case “love wasn’t love” and they kind of relented and after hotly denying that SSM would lead to polygamy they acknowledged that it probably should “so long as it wasn’t Mormon style polygamy”.

      Like

      • In other words it wasn’t that hard to get them to admit polygamy would come from SSM just so long as you (a) sounded supportive of polygamy and (b) weren’t advocating for just a dude with a lot of wives but any kind of polyamorous relationship.

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        • I wonder if the men still get screwed when those herd marriages end in divorce?

          Like

        • Of course the will… because patriarchy.

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        • If the structure of the polyamorous marriage allows it, then yes. Settlements will be an hierarchy of victimhood: so minority women get the best results, minorities second best, obviously transmen, gay men and lesbians will fair better if there’s someone in the relationship who is not those things, etc. And straight white dude who gets into some weird relationship with a lesbian and a bisexual is going to be sorry.

          Like

  8. If NoVA’s still around I’d be interested to hear his prediction for the Virginia election.

    Like

    • as much as i’d like to see him lose, just for the lutz of it.
      i think the Ds faceplanted, but there’s just too many of them in the NoVa area to lose a statewide race.

      closer than they’d like, but McAufflie squeaks it out.
      unless i’m totally misreading the situation in loudon county and this school board thing. not sure what to make of that. younkin pulls the updset or even ties out there …

      but, VA is a blue state at this point.

      what do you think?

      Like

      • I predict McAuliffe by 3 points.

        Like

      • If yard signs are an indication, Youngkin will win. And I agree it’s going to come down to turnout in Northern Virginia. I think Youngkin carries the rest of the state.

        The other thing to keep in mind is that if the MSM is reporting that the Democrats are in a close race, then the real situation for them has to be worse.

        I wish that if they do end up making DC a state, that they take all of Virginia north of Fredericksburg with them.

        Since Columbus is no longer in fashion, they can call the new state “Beltway”.

        Like

        • “I wish that if they do end up making DC a state, that they take all of Virginia north of Fredericksburg with them.”

          ouch

          Since Columbus is no longer in fashion, they can call the new state “Beltway”.

          Rentsland or something like that.

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        • okay. they’re in trouble. and SEIU canvasser just knocked on my door in deep blue area re: getting out to vote.

          and we never get that here. not once. ever.

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      • I think states are what they are, until they aren’t. It might be a Gavin Newsome recall situation, with it just not mattering–too many true believers. But it can also be the case that this time the Dems in NoVa have gone too far even for a lot of Democrats. That also happens (see: Suburban College-Educated Republicans and Trump).

        Like

  9. Oh my.

    Liked by 1 person

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