Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 4,280 | 0.8 |
| Oil (WTI) | 73.25 | 0.32 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 1.5% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 3.20% |
Stocks are taking a breather this morning after hitting record levels. Bonds and MBS are flat.
Home prices rose 15.7% in April, according to the FHFA House Price Index. On a month-over-month basis, prices rose 1.8%. In some MSAs like Boise, prices are up 28%. Austin is up 23%. Note that in April of 2020, the entire US was in lockdown, and there were very few transactions. This will exaggerate the year-over-year price increases. The supply / demand imbalance will hopefully get some relief as lumber prices fall, and the foreclosure / eviction moratoriums expire. Until then, it is slim pickings if you are a buyer.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index reported similar gains to FHFA, rising 2.1% MOM and 14% YOY. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P had this to say about the pace of home price growth:
“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes. April’s data continue to be consistent with this hypothesis. This demand surge may simply represent an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in locational preferences, leading to a permanent shift in the demand curve for housing. More time and data will be required to analyze this question.”
The change in housing preferences is an interesting idea, however Occam’s Razor says that we have underbuilt for years, and have not kept pace with population growth and obsolescence. That said, COVID probably did affect preferences at the margin, but even before the pandemic we had a supply problem. If anything, COVID just exacerbated it.
The number of loans in forbearance fell another 2 basis points last week to 3.91%, according to the MBA. Re-entries accounted for 6.2% of those in forbearance, so it looks like some borrowers are not really launching yet.
Despite the seemingly never-ending foreclosure moratoriums, the government did make a few tweaks to its policy. Foreclosure proceedings are permitted to begin if (a) the home is abandoned, (b) the borrower has not responded to any messages for 90 days, (c) the borrower has been evaluated for a modification and none are viable or (d) the borrower was 120 days down before March 2020.
Consumer confidence increased in June, according to the Conference Board. “Consumer confidence increased in June and is currently at its highest level since the onset of the pandemic’s first surge in March 2020,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved again, suggesting economic growth has strengthened further in Q2. Consumers’ short-term optimism rebounded, buoyed by expectations that business conditions and their own financial prospects will continue improving in the months ahead. While short-term inflation expectations increased, this had little impact on consumers’ confidence or purchasing intentions. In fact, the proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances all rose—a sign that consumer spending will continue to support economic growth in the short-term. Vacation intentions also rose, reflecting a continued increase in spending on services.”
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey
One of the historic precursors to Kelo was the designation of a private right to eminent domain for pipelines.
Here they deal with the interplay of eminent domain for a pipeline co. authorized by FERC, against a state government.
Holding: A certificate of public convenience and necessity issued by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pursuant to Section 717f(h) of the Natural Gas Act authorizes a private company to condemn all necessary rights-of-way, whether owned by private parties or states.
This reversed the Circuit ruling.
5-4: Dissent was Gorsuch, Thomas, Barrett, and Kagan.
Five were Roberts, Breyer, Kavanaugh, Alito, and Sotomayor.
These lineups are very interesting.
LikeLike
Mark, I thought that railroad companies were the precursor of private right to eminent domain?
LikeLike
Yes, George, RRs were first, then pipelines, then “urban renewal”, then sports stadiums.
4 precursors. Pipelines were one of them, the second one.
LikeLike
Thanks Mark. In what way did the court ruling change from RR’s to Pipelines? I’m sure it was expand
Dec but for a layman it doesn’t make sense that a takings change would be required for pipelines vs railroads.
LikeLike
Lol!
Shot:
Chaser:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/eric-adams-1st-choice-lead-york-mayoral-primary/story?id=78557261
LikeLike
So. Utterly. Full. Of. Shit.
Also: ”if you love Democracy and freedoms believe what I tell you, make my priorities your priorities, and do what I say! Or you hate freedom. And puppies.”
LikeLike
If I understand you correctly, when the private takings were RRs it was analogized to highway RsOW, a public use. It was when it got to mining easements and pipeline easements that we were in the era of “public purpose” which is much broader than the text “public use” So slum clearance and stadiums have all been public purpose takings by private interests, and that led almost inevitably to Kelo.
As the dissenters in that case said it is as if the Takings clause now means govt can authorize a private taking so long as the govt entity expresses that it serves a public purpose.
Of course the central issue in Penn Pipeline was the trampling of state sovereign immunity by a federally authorized private taking. Barrett’s dissent is pretty straightforward.
LikeLike
While I don’t consider The Hill a reliable source, there is this background to consider if they are correct.
Apparently, FERC has been a rubber stamp for pipeline requests. A recent House investigation found that virtually all requests are granted and almost all appeals are denied.
The Hill: “The committee found that in more than 99 percent of cases over the past 20 years, FERC has decided to give natural gas pipeline companies eminent domain; the move was approved 1,021 times and only rejected six times…. Over the past 12 years, when landowners have sought to appeal FERC’s decision to give companies eminent domain over their property, in every case the commission has issued an order extending its time frame to respond. The appeals were ultimately denied every time.”
LikeLike
If the country splits up, I think this will be viewed as a harbinger of that in retrospect:
https://apnews.com/article/california-florida-lifestyle-travel-business-048670c6461032de3cb67154d624ab13
LikeLike
“unprecedented wave of bigotry”
these people simply have no grasp on reality.
I think every church in my town has a pride sign on its front lawn.
Wonder if they do any business with countries in the middle east.
LikeLike
I expect they do. And China. They are largely divorced from reality.
LikeLike
“U.S. military commander in Afghanistan warns of possible civil war”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afghanistan-us-military-taliban/2021/06/29/7053a88c-d887-11eb-8c87-ad6f27918c78_story.html
As opposed to the current state of affairs.
Can they really be this clueless? They are unaware of how the Vietnam War ended in the exact same way?
LikeLike
But this time they’ll do it right.
LikeLike
State election law is more like guidelines than actual law:
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/06/29/newsom-sues-elections-chief-to-call-himself-a-democrat-on-recall-ballot-1387343
LikeLike
I love the fact that Newsome signed the fucking law! But by all means, keep him governor.
LikeLike
And appointed the Secretary of State that he’s now suing.
LikeLike
Thank goodness Trump is gone and we have an honorable man in the White House who respects the media and free speech!
https://thefederalist.com/2021/06/29/tucker-carlson-bidens-nsa-is-illegally-spying-on-me-and-i-can-prove-it/
LikeLike
And I guarantee you the Washington Post, NY Times, CNN, and MSNBC won’t bat an eye.
LikeLike
Depends on if Tucker can actually produce some evidence.
LikeLike
He has a whistleblower, apparently.
No amount of evidence will cause the party hacks at the MSM to denounce this.
Welcome to the USSA.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yeah, I want to see the evidence still.
I also don’t rule out that someone may be trolling Tucker Borat style to embarrass him with assistance from someone inside Fox.
LikeLike
Won’t matter ultimately. They spy on sitting Senators for goodness sake. This will be denied until it’s no longer tenable then it will be justified as necessary.
LikeLike
I’d be interested in see evidence if there is any. Whistelblowers can be intentional disinformation agents to discredit the gullible. Needs hard evidence.
That being said he could have all the evidence in the world and the media will spin and justify.
LikeLike
Perfect:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Oakland-police-chief-wades-into-budget-debate-as-16280222.php
https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Armed-robbers-held-up-news-crew-as-it-interviewed-16280448.php
LikeLiked by 1 person
The left got what they wanted. oh well.
LikeLiked by 1 person
yep. defund the policy or follow the drum circle sounds to another tent city. whatever.
LikeLiked by 1 person
But no mean tweets, mercifully.
LikeLiked by 1 person
NoVA, I saw this and thought of you:
“My Wife Wants Me to Stay With Her in the Normie Line Even Though I Have PreCheck
Is it rude for me to leave her behind?”
https://slate.com/human-interest/2021/06/dear-prudence-have-precheck-wife-doesnt-argument.html
LikeLiked by 1 person
Time for a new wife?
LikeLike
i liked the next letter regarding couple’ theraphy:
“He’s a sweet guy but has little patience with fools and quickly reduced our first therapist to tears.”
LikeLike
Hard not to like the dude. The wife should anticipate this, how long have they been married? Starting to think she’s seeking passive aggressive revenge.
LikeLike
and re: pre-check.
i always go through and find us a seat and/or deal with whatever.
we’re a divide and conquer type couple. emphasis on the conquer.
LikeLike
To me the obvious answer would be to get the wife Pre-Check.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Fuck that bitch.
LikeLike
well there is that. i honestly don’t know if my wife does or not. we haven’t been near an airport in a long time.
LikeLike
I was thinking more of the advice given to the person at Slate. That would have been the first response I offered.
LikeLike
My money’s on the AMA lobbying $. Sounds like CA is just shaking the money trees.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-physician-relationships/california-physicians-state-medical-board-spar-over-disciplinary-power-fees.html?origin=BHRE&utm_source=BHRE&utm_medium=email&utm_content=newsletter&oly_enc_id=7410C5524589A6B
LikeLike
“y money’s on the AMA lobbying $”
fuck those guys. always wanting to change coalition letters at the last minute.
LikeLike
How have things been in your neck of the woods NoVA?
LikeLike
quietly busy. expecting some major new regs today or tomorrow.
vaccine distribution was the big thing for a while. but that’s quieting down.
they’re reopening the office next week. i’m not jazzed about it. but 2 days a week in-office isn’t horrible. i’ll try to stack as many meetings as possible those 2 days so i can do my actual work the rest of hte week from home.
the hill is doing what they do. act busy, do nothing, and pass something at the last minute. we should just shut down DC until the last week of Dec. cut to the chase.
how about you?
LikeLike
This is good
https://babylonbee.com/news/olympics-to-kick-off-with-the-ceremonial-lighting-of-the-american-flag
LikeLike
Again, more like guidelines.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/cdc-eviction-moratorium-supreme-court/2021/06/29/19771b7e-d92d-11eb-8fb8-aea56b785b00_story.html
LikeLike
jnc:
Again, more like guidelines.
Kavanaugh says CDC has no power to do it, but he’ll leave it in place anyway. As I said the other day, completely demoralizing.
LikeLiked by 1 person