Morning Report: Rental inflation hits a 14 year high

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures4,084-38.8
Oil (WTI)64.17-1.37
10 year government bond yield 1.66%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.18%

Stocks are lower this morning on COVID and inflation fears. Bonds and MBS are down.

The FOMC minutes from the April meeting are scheduled to be released at 2:00 pm. I doubt we will get anything market-moving out of the release, but you should be aware.

Mortgage Applications rose by 1.2% last week as refinances rose by 4% and purchases fell by 4%. “Mortgage rates increased last week, with all loan types hitting their highest levels in two weeks. Rates  were still lower than levels reported in late March and early April, providing additional opportunity for borrowers to refinance,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Despite the 30-year fixed rate rising to 3.15 percent, applications for conventional and VA refinances increased. Ongoing volatility in refinance applications is likely if rates continue to oscillate around current levels.”

Rising lumber prices drove the disappointing housing starts number yesterday. It looks like lumber is starting to head back down again.

Single-family rents increased 4.3% in March, according to CoreLogic. The increase was the biggest in 14 years and was driven by the growth at the high end. There was a marked divergence between growth for SFR and attached units.

There was a wide divergence in metro areas as well, with Boston reporting a 11% decline in rents versus Phoenix which grew 11%. I wonder if the eviction moratorium is introducing noise into the data however.

The anticipated increase in housing inventory failed to materialize in April, according to the latest research by Zillow. Inventory fell 1.4% compared to March and is down 30% from a year ago. This drove prices to increase 11.6% on a YOY basis, which was the fastest increase in the history of the Zillow Home Price Index, which goes back 25 years. The typical home was on the market for only 7 days before accepting an offer. Zillow economists are forecasting another big year for home price growth, expecting to see 11.6% growth through April 2022.

7 Responses

  1. I’m assuming this is punishment for the Kavanaugh confirmation vote.

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  2. Tonight at Planet Fitness, I finally saw people taking the masks off to work out.

    Finally.

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    • They were already doing it at ATC before mandated changed, at least the one I was going to. Nobody said anything but I still mostly wore my mask. Then they ended the mandates and ATC was the only place I’ve been where they immediately tore down all the mask signage. Maybe 10% of the people still wear their mask.

      Work on the other hand just doubled down on forcing everybody to do the mask and contact tracing theater.

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  3. Is he wrong?

    The Attorney General of New York literally campaigned on prosecuting Donald Trump even before she knew anything about me. She said that if elected, she would use her office to look into “every aspect” of my real estate dealings. She swore that she would “definitely sue” me. She boasted on video that she would be, and I quote, “a real pain in the ass.” She declared, “just wait until I’m in the Attorney General’s office,” and, ”I’ve got my eyes on Trump Tower.” She also promised that, if elected, she would “join with law enforcement and other Attorney Generals across this nation in removing this President from office,” and, “It’s important that everyone understand that the days of Donald Trump are coming to an end.” The Attorney General made each of these statements, not after having had an opportunity to actually look at the facts, but BEFORE she was even elected, BEFORE she had seen even a shred of evidence. This is something that happens in failed third world countries, not the United States. If you can run for a prosecutor’s office pledging to take out your enemies, and be elected to that job by partisan voters who wish to enact political retribution, then we are no longer a free constitutional democracy.

    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/desk/desk-w2snhrwejb/

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    • No. I also feel he’s got someone to go over these briefly, at least, before they are released.

      “by partisan voters who wish to enact political retribution, then we are no longer a free constitutional democracy”

      Makes me feel like there’s someone there trying to keep him on brand.

      That being said, I don’t think he’s wrong but a lot of the problem with all that is self-evident and ought to get full 360° coverage in the press and does not and will not.

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