Morning Report: Forbearances tick up

Vital Statistics:


  Last Change
S&P futures 3890 -9.3
Oil (WTI) 60.73 0.14
10 year government bond yield   1.44%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   3.15%

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down small.


The number of loans in forbearance ticked up slightly last week, according to the MBA. 2.6 million homeowners (or 5.23% of mortgages) are in forbearance plans right now. “A small increase in new forbearance requests, coupled with exits decreasing to match a survey low, led to the overall share of loans in forbearance increasing for the first time in five weeks,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The largest rise in the forbearance share was for portfolio and PLS loans, due to increases for both Ginnie Mae buyouts and other portfolio/PLS loans.”


Home prices rose 0.9% MOM and 10% YOY in January, according to CoreLogic. First-time homebuyers are being particularly affected by this, as there is a dearth of entry-level homes on the market, and rapid price appreciation is negating the positive effect of low interest rates.


The Fed meets this month, and will almost surely discuss the rapid increase in interest rates at the long end of the curve. One policy prescription could be a re-introduction of Operation Twist, where the Fed sells short-dated paper and buys long-term bonds as a way to flatten the yield curve. This would have the effect of pushing down long-term rates.

8 Responses

  1. The door to purging the military of anyone who opposes leftist politics starts to crack open.


    • It’s distressing from a security standpoint but amusing to wonder whom they think will fill the ranks.


      • Like

      • This is an interesting question. It seems unlikely to be dedicated leftists, who despite their love of wielding power are not usually good with authority, so I expect they won’t want to be in the military unless they can be recruited as 5 star generals and skip that whole “starting as a private” thing.

        The purges will have to be nominal and performative. Conservatives and Trump-supporters are likely highly over-represented in the military versus the general population, and removing 50% to 75% of the soldiers is going to make continuing to conduct endless wars very difficult. So they’ll find a few guys who questioned the 2020 election on social media or have pictures of themselves wearing MAGA hats and get rid of them, identify all sorts of potential conservatives and send them to critical-race training, and then declare victory. That’s my theory, anyway.

        Might be a move to really shift from ground troops to geeks navigating armed drones as the front line of future military endeavors as well.


  2. Prompted by Ace quoting from it, I only just got around to reading Thomas’ dissent in SCOTUS’s decision not to hear the Pennsylvania election case.

    Click to access 20-542_2c83.pdf

    One wonders what this Court waits for. We failed to settle this dispute before the election, and thus provide clear rules. Now we again fail to provide clear rules for future elections. The decision to leave election law hidden beneath a shroud of doubt is baffling. By doing nothing, we invite further confusion and erosion of voter confidence. Our fellow citizens deserve better and expect more of us.

    He continues to prove to be the most clear-thinking justice on the court.


    • I tend to agree with Thomas on this but what do you think of the argument that the state legislatures failure to address the issue can be viewed as an endorsement of the policies put in place by the PA Executive branch?


      • McWing:

        what do you think of the argument that the state legislatures failure to address the issue can be viewed as an endorsement of the policies put in place by the PA Executive branch?

        Not much. The Constitution says that elections will be run in a manner decided by state legislatures, not the executive of each state unless the legislature objects.


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