Morning Report: The Fed is not even thinking about raising rates

Vital Statistics:


  Last Change
S&P futures 3915 12.3
Oil (WTI) 58.14 -0.34
10 year government bond yield   1.14%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.85%

Stocks are flattish this morning as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are flat.


Initial Jobless Claims fell to 739k last week. It looks like the layoffs are starting to ease up, but we are still pretty elevated compared to historical norms.


The FHFA extended its foreclosure moratorium until the end of March. In addition, loans backed by Fan or Fred are eligible for a foreclosure extension for up to three months, and can defer payments for up to 15 months. “To keep families in their home during the pandemic, FHFA is allowing borrowers to be in COVID-19 forbearance for up to 15 months and extending the Enterprises’ foreclosure and eviction extension,” said FHFA Director Mark Calabria.


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that easy monetary policies will be in place for a while. The Fed is probably not going to “even think about withdrawing policy support” for the foreseeable future. He also said that monetary policy alone will be insufficient to get the economy going again and it will require fiscal stimulus and efforts from the private sector. “It will require a society-wide commitment, with contributions from across government and the private sector” What “contributions from the private sector” means is anyone’s guess. Here are the prepared remarks from his speech.


Mortgage delinquencies fell by 92 basis points in the fourth quarter to 6.73%, according to the MBA. This is an increase of 296 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. “For the second consecutive quarter, homeowners’ ability to make their mortgage payments improved,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The 92-basis-point drop in the delinquency rate in the fourth quarter was the biggest quarterly decline in the history of MBA’s survey dating back to 1979. Total mortgage delinquencies across the three loan types – conventional, FHA and VA – and across the major stages of delinquency – 30-day, 60-day and 90-day – declined from last year’s third quarter.”


46 Responses

  1. This is what Republicans ought to be talking about:


  2. The self destruction of the NYT continues:


  3. Something you might appreciate Scott:

    “The definition for ending a pandemic is when people collectively give up caring”


  4. Of course they got the factual details wrong:

    Liked by 1 person

    • Why do we not know how or even when he died?

      It can only be because it does not fit the narrative.

      Liked by 1 person

      • That’s the only conclusion. Also I keep hearing (from Conservative, Inc. and even people who are left-of-center but I would assume are not part of the narrative machine intentionally) that crazy Trump people broke into the Capitol and beat a police officer to death with a fire extinguisher. Which (apparently) did not happen at all.

        But also going on about how it was the worst thing to happen ever. John Podohertz (since Commentary still can’t stop talking about Trump, all the time) went on about his horrifying vision of how if a capitol police officer had not re-directed Mitt Romney away from the mob, these crazy Trump supporters would have gleefully beat him to death and torn him limb-from-limb.

        All that kind of overblown hyperbole does is make me think that what they are describing is literally the last thing that could have ever possibly happened. And mobs do crazy things, so anything is possible, yet I feel like they wouldn’t be pushing this narrative so hard if there was any real truth to it.

        Subjective. Could be way off.


    • The obvious answer to his question is, beyond being ideologically biased and at least in part financially owned by a variety of corporate entities and potentially fronts for the CCP, they just don’t care. They just make up stories now. They don’t do any actual fact checking, because fact checking has been redefined to finding a rhetorical argument to dispute unpleasant facts–not confirm things that fit the narrative. Why would you need to confirm something that makes not only a good “if it bleeds it leads” story but also perfectly conforms to the desired narrative?

      It was all WAY too good to fact check. So they didn’t. They just reported whatever the game of telephone told them that happened. Maybe with some embellishment.


    • Greenwald’s Twitter feed is becoming a fact checking clearing house for the Capitol riot:


  5. Today is Marbury v. Madison day, I think…

    Liked by 1 person

  6. OK….I’m assuming this is parody, but in the current environment, can one really be sure?

    Liked by 1 person

  7. A glimmer of self awareness, but he can’t quite get there:

    “The Resistance did not create or empower Mr. Trump. But we did make the classic first mistake of concluding that our insights, analysis and morality would convince his supporters that they were tragically wrong. When that failed, we made the classic second mistake of assuming we hadn’t made our first mistake loudly or clearly enough.”

    I’d be more interested in hearing him revisit these comments from Bill Maher:

    “Olbermann told Maher he’s encountered Trump on multiple occasions. He revealed, rather sheepishly, that he lives in one of Trump’s eponymous towers in New York.

    The man he described sounded considerate, quiet and kind, which is to say, the complete opposite of the version that has been publicly presented for the last few months.

    “This is the scariest part of this: I have seen him,” Olbermann said. “I have talked to him, and obviously he’d be more interested in whether or not I’m happy with the experience than the average guy living there ’cause I have something of a public persona, but every conversation I ever had with him there, or when we worked together at NBC — simultaneously at NBC — was polite, calm, was about you, not him, was rational and solicitous.””


Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

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