Morning Report: Small Business Optimism Falls

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures3902-6.3
Oil (WTI)57.53-0.34
10 year government bond yield 1.15%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 2.85%

Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

Small business optimism fell below its historical average in January, according to the National Federation of Independent Businesses. “As Congress debates another stimulus package, small employers welcome any additional relief that will provide a powerful fiscal boost as their expectations for the future are uncertain,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “The COVID-19 pandemic continues to dictate how small businesses operate and owners are worried about future business conditions and sales.”

November 30 day delinquency rates rose to 5.9%, according to CoreLogic. This is an increase of 2 percentage points from a year ago. “The consistent decline in serious delinquency since August is a sign of growing financial stability for families. In addition to ensuring that homeowners stay in their homes, the decline in delinquency means fewer distressed sales, which is both a positive for individual households and the overall housing market.” Seriously delinquent rates rose from 1.3% to 3.9%.

The number of loans in forbearance fell last week to 2.7 million borrowers, according to the MBA. The forbearance percentage fell to 5.35% from 5.38% last week. “The share of loans in forbearance decreased at the end of January across all investor categories,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Almost 14 percent of homeowners in forbearance were reported as current on their payments at the end of last month, but the share has declined nearly every month from 28 percent in May. While new forbearance requests increased slightly at the end of January, the rate of exits picked up somewhat but remained much lower than in recent months. We are anticipating a sharp increase in exits in March and April as borrowers hit the 12-month expiration of their forbearance plans.” By stage, 16.52% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 80.98% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 2.50% are forbearance re-entries.

Mortgage credit improved slightly in January, according to the MBA. “The growth in credit availability in January coincides with a housing market that is poised for a strong start to the year,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Improvements were driven by the conventional segment of the mortgage market, as lenders added ARM loans with lower credit score and higher LTV requirements. Despite ARM loans accounting for a very small share of loans applications in recent months, lenders are likely looking ahead to a strong home buying season by expanding their product offerings.”

38 Responses

  1. Didn’t watch, but sounds like the Super Bowl ratings were a multi-decade low.


  2. Thank God Rolling Stone is on this.

    “Meet the Woman Bringing Social Justice to Astrology

    Chani Nicholas is transforming horoscopes from quips about finding true love and stumbling into financial good fortune to pointed calls to action

    By Ariana Igneri”

    Good to see that the “pay to write an article” model is working out.


    • $10 says it’s stupid white broads fucking up astrology.


    • I was listening to the Victor Davis Hanson podcast and he was talking about how, historically, cultures dominated by identity politics inevitable corrupted everything. Particularly the sciences, as science had to comport with often crazy theories that conformed to the style of identify politics, whether primarily racial or religious in nature. Which made the scholarship of those places and times largely worthless.

      While astrology is not physics or statistics or even economics, it serves as an example of how the identity politics of our day is devaluing and debasing almost everything. Pretty much everything we’re producing as a culture now is going to be historically worthless, except as artifacts of a society in the grips of a kind of religious hysteria.


  3. This is good.


    • Like some of the replies: Out of control leftism? Lol We have 7.25 minimum wage and healthcare isn’t a right. Looks like out of control capitalism to me.

      Out of control leftism?” In what alternate universe is this?


      Lol this is a paper thin cover for (1) macron to try to appeal to people leaning NF, and (2) France’s continued refusal to address the racism embedded in its society, and the anti-woke left is going to swallow it hook, line, and sinker.

      I just can’t even.


  4. Just when you think the NYT’s descent can’t possibly go further, they go and prove you wrong.

    I suppose that if you willingly work for this increasingly dangerous organisation, you deserve what you get. And his grovelling apology for his non-crime suggests he has no self-respect in the first place. But man…we are seriously entering Orwellian times. And a Biden administration is only going to facilitate, not push back against, this Orwellianism.


    • This is nothing more than affirmative action in reverse. The left is systematically finding dirt on white cis men and using that to get them out of power. That is the game being played here.

      And it won’t stop until cis white men say enough.


      • CIS white men will become CIS men and also Asians and definitely Christians and then probably Jews (the observant kind) and also white women are a problem and then black baptists for sure gotta go and then also . . .


    • This is obviously true.


    • Oh, I think they can go further than even this. He had an alternative when he said the n-word by substituting something like “this” or “the n-word” or something else. Eventually this is going to spread to things like hearing someone say the word (I think that’s already happened in some cases) and not strenuously objecting enough, or maybe objecting when it wasn’t their place for some reason, or for possibly having thought it.

      We’re going to get people deplatformed and cast-out for saying “my best friend is black” or even acknowledging someone is black, while someone else two doors down is going to get the same hit for NOT acknowledging someone is black, because that’s systemic racism.

      And so on. It will go much, much further. IMO.

      I see NYT a few years down the rode, with Nikole Hannah-Jones the editor-in-chief, being directly bought by Google or Facebook, or just transitioning to a “funded by wealthy donors” business model as every day brings a new firing or deplatforming. I imagine they will pair their reporting down to mostly about stories about who needs to be deplatformed that day.


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