Morning Report: Rent and Mortgage Payments are due

Posted on May 1, 2020 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2650 -48.1
Oil (WTI) 19.81 1.29
10 year government bond yield 0.61%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.43%

 

Stocks are lower this morning after disappointing comments out of Exxon, Apple and Amazon. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

It is May 1. Mortgage and rent payments are due. I suspect we will see a deluge of missed payments. Meanwhile, about half of US states are looking to loosen restrictions.

 

Construction spending rose 0.9% in March, despite the COVID-19 concerns. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell, but not as much as feared.

 

Fannie Mae reported net income of $461 million in the first quarter compared to $4.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019. Increased provisions for loan losses drove the decline. Fannie estimates that 7% of its book (or about a million loans) is in forbearance right now. Net worth fell by a billion to 13.6 billion. 1 million loans, $13.6 billion in equity.

 

According to Black Knight, 3.8 million mortgages are in forbearance. 1.7 million are Fannie / Freddie, 1.2 are GNMA and the rest are private label / other. UPB is $238 billion. Black Knight estimates that there will need to be $8 billion in P&I advances and another $1.7 billion in T&I advances.

 

Many large corporations are thinking of keeping work-from-home a permanent thing. It looks like productivity hasn’t suffered as much as employers have feared, and this could be a win-win for both employers and employees.

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report | 61 Comments »

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