Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 2581 | -29.4 |
| Oil (WTI) | 20.94 | 0.89 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 0.70% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 3.38% |
Stocks are down this morning as we wrap up Q1, which was the worse quarter for stocks since 2008. Bonds and MBS are up.
The Fed will buy up to $30 billion in MBS today, along with some CMBS paper. It sounds like the NY Fed heard the pleas of originators and is cognizant of the margin call issue. The MBA issued a letter to the SEC and FINRA asking them to give guidance to broker-dealers to lay off the margin calls: “MBA urgently requests that FINRA and the SEC issue guidance to the nation’s broker-dealers, making clear that margin calls on mortgage lenders’ TBA hedge positions should not be escalated to destabilizing levels,” Broeksmit said. “Absent such guidance and an immediate shift in broker-dealer practices, the U.S. housing market is in danger of large-scale disruption.”
Been hearing chatter that a lot of originators are imposing minimum 680 FICOs on FHA loans. Also, warehouse banks are becoming more reluctant to fund them unless there is a bid in hand for the loan. It makes sense – FHA loans have the lowest margin for safety with 3.5% down and FICO scores that are generally not good enough to qualify for Home Ready or Home Possible.
Goldman is forecasting a Q2 GDP drop of -34% and unemployment hitting 15%. Yikes. That said, the economy should come roaring back in the third quarter as Coronavirus issues fade. The ultimate question: Did all of these small businesses that shuttered over the past month go into hibernation or did they go away? And while the banking sector has so far withstood the impact of the credit crisis, the non-banking sector is a different story. A few non-agency mortgage REITs like Two Harbors and MITT have sold their non-agency bonds to satisfy margin calls. One certainly has to worry about the CMBS mortgage REITs as well as the plain old shopping center and mall REITs. If you are anchored with a grocery story, you might be ok. If you are anchored with a Macy’s however…
KB Home reported better than expected numbers on Friday, and remarked that internet traffic remains up on a YOY basis. Walk-in foot traffic is not as the company has shut down its offices. In some parts of the country construction has stopped, but in most of the US it is still proceeding. Regardless of the Coronavirus issues, it appears that the demand for homes is still there, and we might see an even tighter market in existing homes as would-be sellers take their homes off the market.
Home prices were up 3.9% in January, according to Case-Shiller. An economist from Capital Economics expects a 4% peak-to-trough hit in real estate pricing. It will be interesting to see if home prices take a hit as a result of the Coronavirus. As KB Home mentioned, the existing home inventory should be even tighter, and homebuilders aren’t stuck with a lot of inventory at the moment and they aren’t entertaining price cuts. That said, the NY market may be a bit heavy.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
I’ll save you the suspense, it’s obvious he does.
https://www.google.com/search?q=does+andrew+cuomo+have+nipple.piercings&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari
Dude gets his kink on.
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Regarding Horowitz’s new report:
This report was overdue, but not because of the Trump Administration and its complaints about the FBI.
While the FBI is a highly competent organization, FISA since its inception has invited overreach.
First, FISA warrants rely on intel, a lower standard than evidence. There is no bottom really to that standard. Naked rumor will do.
Second, there is no ability by anyone to oppose or otherwise attack the credibility of the Intel.
Third, the FISA judges simply must depend on the good faith of the agents who ask for the warrants.
Fourth, the FISA judges will err on the side of national security over civil liberties, in every case.
These four factors are by design and are quite arguably the correct way to handle security issues. But this requires two levels of periodic oversight. First, an IG has to review procedural correctness periodically, not just when the President is aggrieved for his buddy. Second, when intel results in prosecution, the wall between intel and evidence and the establishment of an independent path to evidence must be shown. That provides another ground for IG review, in my opinion.
These are difficult problems of long standing, and only addressed in part by this Horowitz report. As someone who opposed the original Act, I get to say “I told you so”.
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Mark:
This report was overdue…While the FBI is a highly competent organization, FISA since its inception has invited overreach.
Do you have a link to the new report? The only info I could find on it suggests that it is a straight up criticism of the FBI’s approach to counterterrorism, not a criticism of FISA.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/lack-of-follow-up-in-fbi-procedures-left-openings-for-domestic-terrorists-doj-watchdog_3264900.html
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The criticism of FISA is all mine.
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Ok…i thought you were saying the new report was “long overdue” because it echoed your long-standing criticisms of FISA. Am I correct that the new report has nothing to do with FISA?
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The report points up multiple cases of FBI not meeting procedural safeguards to obtain FISA warrants. Because there are no real prophylactics in the FISA process other than “good faith” IG inspections of FBI procedures or CIA procedures or procedures prior to obtaining near rubber stamp warrants must occur more often. Good faith being a hit or miss proposition in the best of men, under stress.
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Mark:
Do you have a link to the report? I wouldn’t mind seeing it. It doesn’t seem to have been reported on very widely.
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Here’s a link:
And a good write up at HotAir:
https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/03/31/doj-ig-fbi-problems-fisa-warrants-far-beyond-crossfire-hurricane/
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McWing:
Thanks. That looks like a different report than the one referred to in my link below. Seems like horowitz must be issuing reports critical of the FBI left and right.
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Do you believe that the Russia investigation by the FBI was initiated and conducted in good faith??
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Good link, George, and I do think the Intel investigation about Russia, etc., was in “good faith”.
It suffered from the same shortcomings I listed and the x-over from intel to evidence was never fully explored, in public, at least. I think the leaks were NOT in good faith. I think the warrants would have been issued without the most questionable parts because the warrants always get issued. I think the system has these problems in it.
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Ok, but overall, did Comey, McCabe, et al initiate the Russia investigation in good faith?
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World ends tomorrow. Women and minorities most affected
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/feminism-womens-rights-coronavirus-covid19/608302/
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