Morning Report: New home applications surge

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3396 -11.25
Oil (WTI) 51.06 -0.95
10 year government bond yield 1.55%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.69%

 

Stocks are lower this morning after Apple warned that revenues will be light in Q1 based on Coronavirus issues. Bonds and MBS are up.

 

We have a lot of housing data this week, with the NAHB Housing Market Index, housing starts, and existing home sales. We also quite a bit of Fed-speak, but not much in the way of market-moving data.

 

New home purchase applications started off the year strong, rising 40% from December and 35% from a year ago. “New home applications and sales activity surged in January. This was a continuation of the end of 2019, which saw strong residential construction and increased purchase applications activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Even with some global and domestic economic uncertainty, builders have ramped up production in recent months to meet increased homebuyer demand.” Strength in homebuilding may turn out to be the economic surprise of 2020.

 

Democratic hopeful Michael Bloomberg proposes tightening the regulatory grip on the financial industry, by imposing a 10 basis point financial transaction tax, merging Fannie and Freddie, banning payday lenders. and ending the use of mandatory arbitration. This is interesting since he was critical of Obama-era financial regulation when he was Mayor of NY.

 

Top fintech names which are changing the housing market.

49 Responses

  1. WASHINGTON — Former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York has qualified for Wednesday’s debate in Las Vegas, the first time the billionaire will appear onstage alongside his Democratic presidential rivals.

    A national poll from NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist released on Tuesday showed Mr. Bloomberg with 19 percent support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, putting him in second place behind Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who had 31 percent. That was a substantial surge since the group’s poll in December, when Mr. Bloomberg received only 4 percent support.

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  2. This quote from Biden should play well:

    “”I am not sending my boy back there to risk his life on behalf of women’s rights!” the vice president shouted during a private meeting in 2010 with Richard Holbrooke, President Obama’s special envoy to Afghanistan.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/18/biden-afghanistan-military-power/

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    • I kind of feel like he’s done already. And that that story is appearing in WaPo always supports that. WaPo has decided they don’t want Biden, and want to throw their support behind someone else.

      Possibly someone guaranteed to lose so Trump definitely wins and the Bezos has a clear shot at the presidency come 2024. That’s 3D chess thinking!

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      • The whole thing is worth reading. He’s been all over the place. I had forgotten about this:

        “He tried to make up for his dovish vote against the Gulf War by insisting that President George H.W. Bush should have removed Saddam Hussein after the liberation of Kuwait. The elder Bush’s caution had led him to choose the “worst” option, Biden said in a 1991 speech. The result was “immense human suffering within Iraq.””

        Liked by 1 person

  3. quite the war going on at PL over bernie vs bloomberg

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    • Greg’s meltdown this morning was a sight to see.

      One thing to note is that Boomberg isn’t just spending money in the Super Tuesday states, he’s been campaigning there as well.

      If he pulls it off and takes the lead in delegates after Super Tuesday, it’s going to be mayhem in the Democratic party.

      Liked by 1 person

      • the funny thing was there were 3 bloomberg banner ads on the page

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      • The Democrats will self-destruct.

        Part of this is, for whatever reason, WaPo is clearly opposed to Bloomerg getting the nod. They’ve been pushing out stories opposed to Bloomberg a lot just recently.

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        • “The Democrats will self-destruct.”

          If they do, it will be because they eliminated winner take all primaries and end up with a brokered convention with three or more candidates going in.

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        • I’m sure there are levels of survival they are prepared to accept.

          At this point, even without a brokered convention, I don’t see this turning out well for the Democrats. Maybe. But not seeing it. Not this election cycle, anyway.

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  4. Bloomberg is what Trump would have been if he had run for the Democratic nomination instead of the Republican one.

    And Bloomberg could have just as easily run for the Republican one (if he dropped the gun issue) if Trump had been the Democratic incumbent.

    I’m starting to feel like the bystander from Superman II where he looks up seeing Superman preparing to face off against Zod, et. al and says “Man, this is gonna be good”.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I think he’d have to drop more than the gun issue. As far as I know he’s in favor of some sort of medical insurance that doesn’t leave those with pre-existing conditions out in the cold to fend for themselves. I don’t really know his position on most policies so I’ll watch the debate and see how he responds. He’s not one of my favorites (age being the primary factor) but if he can beat Trump, I’d prefer him over Trump and day of the week and twice on Sunday!

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      • How does it help Bloomberg to appear at the debate? I’m not sure it does. Is there any doubt that Warren and Klobuchar are going to accuse him of being a sexist towards them? Is there any doubt that all of the rivals will accuse him of racism? I’m not sure he’s as deft at bullnosing his way through it as Trump. Those are cardinal sins on the left, no?
        On the right being accused like that is a badge of honor.

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        • Also McWing, I know you’re being facetious there.

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        • Sincerely, I am being serious with my comment to you.

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        • Noooooo you’re not. No one wants to be accused of sexism or racism, but if they believe it’s untrue, then they can claim a badge of honor I suppose. Denying it though doesn’t make it true or false, just a denial.

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        • I really think you underestimate just how undamaging (and therefore, at a minimum, neutral) such accusations made by the left against Republicans are. If you believe that the left accuses those they disagree with sexism, misogyny and homophobia (and many Republican voters do) then to not be accused on the right is to be perceived as ineffectual against the Democrats

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        • McWing, I’m not here to defend the dems who make universal claims against Rep candidates. I don’t believe most of them myself. As I said, we’ve had quite a few Presidents with problems straying from their marriage vows, several of them were Dems.

          Otherwise, there are certainly some members of both parties who could sharpen up their jokes and public comments regarding women, gays, people of color……………etc. Bloomberg is one of them. If you’re in the public eye and you have a loose tongue then you should be held accountable for those comments. I don’t care which party you belong to.

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      • You may be right McWing but I’m curious to see how the debate plays out. If he’s actually serious about running, rather than just supporting a way forward with D’s to get rid of Trump, then he will have to win hearts and minds of D’s. I doubt he can do that but I also doubt we will see Warren or Klobuchar going head to head with him the way you expect.

        I can probably count on at least one hand, and possibly two, men who made it to the White House with the same sexist creds!

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      • “As far as I know he’s in favor of some sort of medical insurance that doesn’t leave those with pre-existing conditions out in the cold to fend for themselves.”

        Trump ran on the same thing. Of course, he has no plan to actually achieve it.

        I also think that McWing is correct that Bloomberg would be better served to skip the debates.

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  5. Mark

    Guys as old as I should NOT be running for POTUS. My hint for the day. BTW, after GW’s actual birthday I will change the quote at ATM. I have given GW a good run.

    I totally agree with this sentiment Mark. We need younger blood in the WH. If forced to choose I suppose I could make myself vote for Bloomberg but I won’t like it. I doubt he’ll be the candidate but he does have a lot of money!

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    • Isn’t there anybody like, 55 or 60 who wants to be president? I mean, other than the obvious best choice for president:

      I don’t think Bloomberg takes the nomination. Irrespective of supposed polling, I have a hard time finding a Democrat who thinks Bloomberg is their guy anywhere.

      Liked by 1 person

      • She’s the only Democrat I would vote for.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Same here. A lot of that being optimism that she wouldn’t be terrible and that she would think for herself and not be beholden the the DNC per se. She’s a disruptor in the style of Bernie but, I think, would be a much better president than Bernie.

          But she’s not going to get the nomination. Not middle-of-the-road enough for centrists and not left enough (at least on enough tings) for the woke crowd.

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      • LOL, I don’t know much about her but she is a beautiful woman! Hmmmmmmmm

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  6. Trump should adopt Glenn Greenwald’s characterization of Elizabeth Warren going forward instead of “Pocahontas”

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Prediction: Bloomberg picks Stacey Abrams as his VP. She’s been defending him and he gave 5 million to her organization.

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  8. “Catholic Church Not About To Be Out-Molested By Goddamn Boy Scouts

    VATICAN CITY—Telling the youth organization that if they come for the king they best not miss, the Catholic Church announced Thursday that it was not about to be out-molested by the goddamn Boy Scouts.”

    https://www.theonion.com/catholic-church-not-about-to-be-out-molested-by-goddamn-1836702707

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Lots of high-profile and controversial pardons/commutations from Trump.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-has-commuted-sentence-of-rod-blagojevich-11582051259?mod=hp_lead_pos1

    Whatever you may think of them, at least he is making himself accountable for it by doing it pre-election.

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  10. So which is the proper analogy to prohibitions on abortion….forced sterilzation or a prohibition on sterilization? Pro-choicers are apparently unable to decide.

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/02/19/alabama-democrat-suggests-forcing-vasectomies-to-prevent-unwanted-children/

    Hollis is not the first lawmaker to employ the strategy of proposing regulation of male biology to make a point about supposed governmental intrusion into female biology. On March 11, 2019, Georgia Democrat state Rep. Dar’shun Kendrick proposed a “Testicular Bill of Rights” in her state. Instead of requiring vasectomies, Kendrick’s bill sought to ban them.

    Do these people actually think that they are making a legitimate point with this kind of performance art, or are they just hoping the rubes fall for it?

    Like

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