Morning Report: Mortgage delinquencies fall to a 40 year low

Vital Statistics:


Last Change
S&P futures 3371 13.25
Oil (WTI) 51.06 1.12
10 year government bond yield 1.62%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.67%


Stocks are higher this morning after China expressed optimism on economic growth. Bonds and MBS are down small.


Jerome Powell continues his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony today. Here were his prepared remarks from yesterday. There was really nothing new in them – the economy is growing moderately, but due to concerns about global growth the Fed cut rates.


Mortgage Applications rose 1.1% last week as purchases decreased 6% and refis increased 5%. “The mortgage market continues to be active in early 2020, as applications increased for the third straight week,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Rates also rose, but still remained close to their lowest levels since October 2016. The refinance index climbed to its highest level since June 2013, and refinance loan sizes also increased as a result of an active jumbo lending market.”


Mortgage delinquency rates in the fourth quarter fell to the lowest in 40 years, according to the MBA. The delinquency rate for one-to-four unit properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.77% of all loans outstanding, which was down 20 bps from Q3 and 29 bps from a year ago. “The mortgage delinquency rate in the final three months of 2019 fell to its lowest level since the current survey series began in 1979,” said Marina Walsh, MBA Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Mortgage delinquencies track closely to the U.S. unemployment rate, and with unemployment at historic lows, it’s no surprise to see so many households paying their mortgage on time.”


Job openings fell in December, according to the JOLTS report. The quits rate (which tends to lead wage growth) was unchanged.

18 Responses

  1. I just don’t see Bloomberg having any kind of chance of winning over anything approaching a majority of Democrats.


    • i wonder if he is right, though. i suspect most judges these days are simply liberal activists who make it up as they go along.

      Liked by 1 person

      • I think Bloomberg is right on that, but that’s not going to play with the Democrat base. Zephyr Teachout up there being a prime example.


        • Whether he is right or not, and I don’t know, his language needs to be improved. “Some woman” isn’t particularly helpful and neither is his “What does she know”…………she has some credentials after all.


        • Bloomberg has a real and regular problem with phrasing for a “woker” crowd. Trump could get away with this kind of Neanderthal wording whereas no one on the Democrat side will be able to and hope to take the primary, IMO.


    • It’s good news we led the world in fewer CO2 emissions. I’m pretty sure Trump didn’t have much influence in regards to this. I think oil companies experimenting with sequestration and fewer demands on oil and electricity had more to do with it. There are also quite a few companies going green by using electric cars etc. I think I read recently that Amazon ordered a large number of electric delivery vans. I’d love to be proven wrong by some sort of forward thinking action Trump took to bring about this result. In any event I hope we continue to lead the world in spite of whomever resides in the WH.


      • lms:

        I’d love to be proven wrong by some sort of forward thinking action Trump took to bring about this result.

        I’d much prefer to find out that the government had literally nothing at all to do with it.

        Liked by 1 person

        • isn’t going to prevent them from arguing that we should give the government more money and power anyway.

          But yes, Elon Musk is going to do more for carbon reduction than a gazillion Greta Thunbergs ever will.

          Liked by 1 person

        • I don’t disagree with you Scott and Brent, one of my 28 year old twin nephews works for SpaceX and his name is on the Rocket they launched in 2017.

          I’d love to own a Tesla but for now we’re still driving our little 2014 Chevy Spark.

          Liked by 1 person

        • The government can passively have something to do with it.

          One thing: fund legitimate research.

          Another thing: tax cuts and credit for R&D.

          Another thing: lower taxes and reduce regulatory burdens.

          Another thing: don’t distort the market and delay progress by trying (and failing) to pick winners and losers, like Solandra.

          And, of course, it’s critical that the government protects the right to private property and the enforcement of contract law. Without those kinds of rights being recognized and enforced, innovation would be very difficult.


        • Kevin, what about the 30% tax credit we received by installing solar? Does that fit your government criteria? I’m genuinely curious. Without that we never would have done it. It would have taken us too long to recoup our investment.


      • oh, i know, but according to the according to the MSM, Trump has returned us to the days of the Cuyahoga River catching fire and the crying Indian ad.

        Liked by 1 person

      • I’m pretty sure Trump didn’t have much influence in regards to this.

        I’m pretty sure no president does! Politicians are generally mostly talk and creation of more bureaucracy has limited impact. Obviously congress has some impact, but a lot of the impact would be from state equivalents of the EPA rather than federal legislation, which is often lagging.


        • I don’t know about that Kevin. The Trump Administration wasted no time undoing the Obama Administration’s auto fuel efficiency and emissions standards.


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