Morning Report: Meh jobs report

Vital Statistics:


Last Change
S&P futures 3280 4.25
Oil (WTI) 59.52 0.04
10 year government bond yield 1.85%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.88%


Stocks are higher as it looks like hostilities are cooling between the US and Iran. Bonds and MBS are down.


Jobs report data dump:

  • Nonfarm payrolls + 145,000
  • Unemployment rate 3.5%
  • Labor force participation rate 63.2%
  • Average hourly earnings up 0.1% / 2.9%

Overall a meh report. Nothing special. Manufacturing payrolls fell by 12,000 which sort of meshes with the weak ISM report. Wage growth remains positive but below the sort of levels we were seeing a few months ago.


Initial Jobless Claims fell to 214,000 last week. No other economic data today, but we do have a lot of Fed-speak.


Want to give a compliance officer a heart attack? Go after a negative review on Yelp by trashing the borrower’s credit profile. Mount Diablo Lending was fined $120,000 for doing just that – “Your credit report shows 4 late payments from the Capital One account, 1 late from Comenity Bank which is Pier 1, another late from Credit First Bank, 3 late payments from an account named SanMateo. Not to mention the mortgage lates. All of these late payments are having an enormous negative impact on your credit score.” Note: credit profiles are confidential information, and your company should have procedures to protect it. Getting into a tiff with a declined borrower on Yelp is not a good way of going about that.


Remember when Quicken and United Wholesale got into a pricing war about this time last year? Well, it looks like Quicken just signed a 4 year contract with the NFL to be its exclusive mortgage sponsor. “Over the years we’ve been a brand and a company that likes to do big epic things,” Casey Hurbis, chief marketing officer for Quicken, said in an interview.


Corporate CEOs and consumers have differing views on the economy. CEOs think a recession in 2020 is the biggest risk, while almost all CFOs see the economy slowing next year. If you look at the chart below, CEO confidence is about where it was going into 2009, which quite simply makes no sense.


CEO confidence



36 Responses

  1. Virginia goes full Bloomberg:

    “The Northam administration threw its weight Thursday behind the eight proposals it will back on gun control this legislative session, including a ban on assault weapons defined as any semiautomatic rifle or pistol with a magazine that holds more than 10 rounds.

    The Northam-backed bill would go into effect in July, but would allow people who already own an assault weapon to obtain a permit from the state for restricted use. Without a permit, the guns would have to be disposed of, surrendered or made inoperable by January 2021.”


  2. Looks like she held them to fully kneecap Sanders (and Warren).

    For what it’s worth, I think Sanders will out-event Biden.


    • Kneecapping Sanders and Warren is also Bloomberg’s plan, I think. He is spending more on local Ds than he is on himself. He may well be banking on a second ballot at the DN Convention, not for himself, but so that friends he has made on the floor of that convention will ask him which of the Ds who won more than 20% but fewer than than 35% of the first ballot vote should they go to.

      He won’t say Sanders or Warren.

      Six Ds have enough money raised to last through Super Tuesday and two more can afford it on their own. I think this will have more players than ever at a National Convention and that will be a political junkie’s dream.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Star Trek Picard is going to continue the Go Woke process. Apparently replacing the optimism of Star Trek and Next Generation with Orange Man Bad. Yay!


    • I have a different read on it, but we’ll see how it does. I expect it will be better than the Abrams movies and the new Star Wars.

      In terms of a darker theme, Star Trek was already going there. The single best story arc, the Dominion War from DS9, is pretty much the same thing.

      Gene’s optimistic future is nice, but it does limit the storytelling.

      Stewart invokes Logan as something similar to what he’s trying to do, and if so then it will be great. I don’t think it’s going to be anything like Discovery.


  4. Interesting read. Notice the difference drawn between bet worth differentials and income differentials. I am not promising there will be no math…

    Click to access is-college-still-worth-it-the-new-calculus-of-falling-returns.pdf


    • given that college inflation has outstripped wage inflation for decades, it isn’t a surprise there are diminishing returns.

      I wonder if technology is going to make law school and med school a negative seems to me that expert systems can accomplish much of the research function


      • given that college inflation has outstripped wage inflation for decades, it isn’t a surprise there are diminishing returns.

        In addition to that, it’s always been the case that the economic value of a college degree has derived largely from its relative scarcity. The more people that get one, the less value it will hold. The inevitable effect of the government giving away money to make it easier to get a college degree will be to devalue those degrees.


        • especially as the top schools play the social engineering game, the quality of the graduates will suffer and devalue the degree from that institution as well.


        • Judging from what my cousin, twice winner of entrepreneur of the year in Baltimore, and his best friend, a Seattle based network entrepreneur have told me, they already prefer hiring engineers from public research universities than from Ivies and National Ivies because of both grade inflation at the private Unis and a recurring sense of entitlement appearing in the interviews of the private school grads.


    • the arrogance of that politician epitomizes everything i completely despise about the left. My suspicion is that she doesn’t even believe it will help. She knows it won’t force companies to make these freelancers permanent employees. The economics of freelance work are what they are. Even though politicians can be dense, they typically aren’t completely stupid. She knows it won’t accomplish a damn thing except make a whole bunch of people in California poorer.

      She is willing to throw a bunch of freelancers under the bus for her selfish virtue signalling exercise. Fuck her, and the horse she rode in on.


      • “for her selfish virtue signalling exercise.”

        No, it’s to destroy Uber, Lyft and their business/labor model. The freelancers are collateral damage.

        The answer to this question is obvious:

        “So that’s the challenge: How do you pass legislation that protects workers from being exploited, while not harming those who want that freedom? ”

        You don’t. You leave it to the workers to make their own decisions.

        Liked by 1 person

        • so uber and lyft won’t operate in california. that is all this whole thing would accomplish.

          i truly honestly believe the left operates under this simplistic thought process:

          something must be done!
          this is something!
          therefore we must do this!

          and by virtue signalling, i mean she is proposing something that is at best, ineffectual, in order to attack some imagined unfairness. attacking unfairness is more important than such mundane details as whether it will be effective or even make things worse.

          maybe i give her too much credit and maybe she is dumb enough to think it will work.


    • There is indeed a lot of blue-on-blue action. Mostly folks who want to buy the party line, whatever it is, and then lefties who make a living off independent contracting and see what’s going on. At least in this case, because it impacts them directly. I love the comments where commenters are calling each other “Republicans”, because that’s the best insult they know.

      But, yeah, Lorena Gonzalez is super-arrogant. She’s a “let them eat cake” level politician.

      Liked by 1 person

    • “Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign manager is warning that Democrats would struggle in a general election against Donald Trump if Bernie Sanders is the nominee.”

      As opposed to Elizabeth Warren? Bloomberg?

      I’m guessing he’s for Biden. Nobody else has real name recognition, which is also a problem.


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