Morning Report: Upbeat housing forecast for 2020

Vital Statistics:


Last Change
S&P futures 3252 7.25
Oil (WTI) 61.78 -0.04
10 year government bond yield 1.88%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.97%


Stocks are higher as investors are largely taking the day off. Bonds and MBS are up.


Mortgage applications fell by 5% last week as purchases and refis both fell by the same amount. “The 10-Year Treasury yield increased last week amid signs of stronger homebuilding activity and solid consumer spending, leading to a rise in conventional conforming and jumbo 30-year mortgage rates to just under 4 percent. With this increase, conventional refinance application volume fell 11 percent,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Refinance applications for government loans did increase, even though rates on FHA loans picked up. The change in the mix of business has kept the average refinance loan size smaller than we had seen earlier this year.” 


Fannie and Freddie both took up their estimates for 2020 economic growth and housing forecasts. Underpinned by a strong labor market, housing will finally take a leadership position in economic growth. “Housing appears poised to take a leading role in real GDP growth over the forecast horizon for the first time in years, further bolstering our modest-but-solid growth forecasts through 2021,” said Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “In our view, residential fixed investment is likely to benefit from ongoing strength in the labor markets and consumer spending, in addition to the low interest rate environment. Risks to growth have lessened of late, as a ’Phase One’ U.S.-China trade deal appears to be in place and global growth seems likely to reverse course and accelerate in 2020. With these positive economic developments in mind, we now believe that the Fed will hold interest rates steady through 2020.”


The actual numbers are here. They see housing starts rising to 1.315 million units, and the 30 year fixed rate mortgage falling to 3.6%. Origination volume is expected to fall slightly to $2.04 trillion from $2.15 trillion in 2019. Purchase volume is expected to increase and refis are forecasted to fall. GDP growth is expected to come in at 1.9%

23 Responses

  1. Don’t ever change Salon:

    “Hallmark movies are fascist propaganda
    Forget “Triumph of the Will” — the most insidious authoritarian propaganda comes in the form of schmaltz

    Amanda Marcotte
    December 25, 2019 10:30PM (UTC)”


  2. Great write up on exactly why The Last Jedi sucks.

    Of course, the rest of the new trilogy sucks too, but not in exactly the same way.


    • did they SJW it all up or something?


      • The Last Jedi? Yes. But it’s beyond that. It’s all about deconstructing the canon because you can’t think of anything more original to do with it.

        Apparently Rise of Skywalker tries to fix it.

        This parody of it makes the point well:

        “Rian Johnson To Direct Mr. Rogers Sequel Where He’s Just A Bitter Old Man Who Doesn’t Believe In All That ‘Be Kind To Your Neighbor’ Crap Anymore

        “People expect Mr. Rogers to be true to his philosophy of being kind to everyone, so it’s fun and exciting to subvert those expectations,” Johnson said in an interview with Entertainment Tonight. “We thought, ‘What are Mr. Rogers’ values?’ and came up with empathy, love, kindness, and being a good neighbor. Then, we decided he doesn’t believe in any of that anymore. He’s just a jaded old guy living in the neighborhood who yells at all the kids who come on his lawn.”

        The film will follow the search for Mr. Rogers. They’ll find him in an old, dilapidated house on the street. “Hey, Mr. Rogers,” says one kid. “We need you to come help tell everyone to be nice to each other.”

        “Go away or I’ll call the cops,” Mr. Rogers growls. “It’s time for neighborliness to end.””

        That’s exactly what Johnson did to Luke in The Last Jedi.


        • I have refused to give Hollywood my money for decades. Only times i have seen a movie in the theater has been dad-related.

          If i didn’t have a wife, i wouldn’t own a TV either.


        • I’d go see movies. But I sure as hell wouldn’t have cable if I weren’t married. I’ve lost all interest in flipping through channels but that’s her thing.

          I did not however go see Rise of Skywalker. I know the entire plot through reviews by all the fandom menace folks on YouTube and it sounds like something I’ll watch when it gets to Disney+.


        • Which was the single worse sin of that awful movie. But there were others, and the one I hate the most is I actually thought Finn was going to get a hero moment and sacrifice himself but Rose Tico crashes into him (in a crash she had no way to know wouldn’t be fatal, and should have been) to tell him dying to protect his fellow soldiers wasn’t what you do in Wars then give him a smooch. That’s was awful.

          The Holdo not telling Poe her plan was artificial tension created to add a C story. And tedious.

          Not killing off Princess Leia in that moment after Carrie Fisher died was just obnoxious. Trying to keep her involved via delete footage—haven’t seen it but it sounds pointless and dumb.

          Also the B story that had no impact on the plot but took up 45 minutes of runtime ….

          When I left the theater I knew I would not be going to the next one.


        • My son-in-law was invited to this movie by his brother and they had an extra ticket and invited me. Forty minutes in, having not wanted to appear rude before that, I asked my son-in-law if he did not actually think the movie was a piece of shit. He laughed, and told his brother we were going for a beer at a nearby pub, and then his brother said “me too!’

          Should have spoken up 25 minutes earlier.


        • So Mark you walked out in the middle of the movie?


        • yep


  3. Can’t we just enjoy a hawt, bisexual senator?


  4. An absolutely fascinating reaction to the bottom rung taking a step up, white guilt.

    Looks like blacks have dropped in the oppressed hierarchy.


    • There has been bad blood between the Blacks and the Hasidics for a long time. The Crown Heights riots were almost 30 years ago.

      But it is Trump’s fault, apparently


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