All Things in Moderation

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning on trade optimism. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Mortgage Applications fell 9.2% last week, which contains an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday. Purchases increase 1% while refis dropped 16%. Despite the 30-year fixed rate remaining unchanged at 3.97 percent, mortgage applications fell last week, driven down by a 16 percent drop in refinances. Purchase applications were up slightly but declined 24 percent from a year ago. This week’s year-over-year comparisons were distorted by Thanksgiving being a week later this year.”

The economy added 67,000 jobs in November, according to the ADP Employment report. The markets are looking for 180,000 new jobs in Friday’s employment situation report, so there is a big disconnect. “In November, the labor market showed signs of slowing,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The goods producers still struggled; whereas, the service providers remained in positive territory driven by healthcare and professional services. Job creation slowed across all company sizes; however, the pattern remained largely the same, as small companies continued to
face more pressure than their larger competitors.”

Realtor.com forecasts the 2020 market. Punchline: more of the same, where there is strong demand for housing and supply remains low primarily because builders are reluctant and boomers are content to age in place. “After the housing crash in 2008, which wiped out quite a few builders, those who remained have largely focused on higher-end developments with bigger profit margins. Although they’re finally showing signs of a shift toward building more entry-level homes, faced with overwhelming demand, it will take a few years for a significant number to come to market.”

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |