Morning Report: Durable goods orders disappoint.

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3010 7.25
Oil (WTI) 56.09 0.04
10 year government bond yield 1.77%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.03%

 

Stocks are higher this morning as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are down small.

 

Durable goods orders disappointed as trade fears and global economic weakness weighs on the manufacturing sector. The headline number was down 1.1%, versus expectation of a 70 basis point drop. Much of the weakness was driven by a drop in aircraft, probably related to the issues with the Boeing 737 Max.  Ex-transportation, orders were down .3%. Most worrisome was the drop in core capital goods, which is a proxy for business capital expenditures and signals that business is concerned about future growth. You can see the deceleration in growth in the chart below:

 

capex

 

Initial Jobless claims fell to 212,000, which is a historically strong number. So despite the weakness in the manufacturing sector, the labor market remains relatively robust.

 

Delinquencies ticked up marginally in September to 3.53%, but are down 11.2% from a year ago. Foreclosure starts came in at 39,400 which is up about 9%, but still down a YOY basis. Prepay speeds are still elevated, up 121% from a year ago. With high prepay speeds, you can expect to see weakness in the higher coupon MBS, which is why increasing the loan rate doesn’t buy the borrower much in terms of adding lender credits. It also makes loans with lots of Fannie Mae adjustments (investment, cash out etc) almost impossible to get a par rate.

 

The Fed is increasing the amount of liquidity in the system, possibly as a result of the cash crunch last month in the repo markets. “It’s just more evidence the Fed will not back off as year-end gets closer,” said Mike Schumacher, global head of rate strategy at Wells Fargo Securities. “The Fed wants to take out more insurance. You had repo pick up last week. That might not have gone over too well.” Separately, the Fed funds futures are pricing in a 94% chance of a rate cut next week.

11 Responses

    • this has really become a “two different movies” scenario as Scott adams talks about…

      I am amazed at how shrill the MSM is about this whole kerfuffle. WaPo is in full court press mode. The NYT sends daily impeachment emails as spam.

      It seems to me that the Trump admin has been running their own investigation into what happened in 2016, and they requested assistance in it from ukraine. All the rest seems to be nothing more than mind reading. Do I have it wrong?

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      • You do. Trump really did try to pressure Ukraine into opening an investigation of Biden, who has nothing to do with what happened in 2016.

        Now, I suspect Trump really believes that there is evidence that Biden was pressuring Ukraine to fire the prosecutor there because of his son’s involvement, because that’s what he would have done in that position, so the whole PL “fabricate a story” argument is an overreach.

        But Trump did step in it with regards to using the ability to cut off congressionally appropriated foreign aid to advance his own reelection.

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        • ok. tbh, i haven’t paid that close of attention to it. i assume everything coming out of the democrats and the media is spin these days, so i kind of stopped listening.

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        • It doesn’t help that the Democrats and the MSM are giving Biden a complete pass on the issue when his actions are pretty much identical to Trump’s (withholding US aid to Ukraine unless they do what Biden asks for) and the only difference goes to whether you trust Biden’s motives.

          Biden should not have been the Obama administration’s point person on Ukraine policy while his son worked for an oil and gas company there.

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      • Trump treats most things as transactional—and transactions sbout whatever he feels is important, I think—so he’ll end up doing stuff that is “abuse of power” and not really believe he did anything remotely wrong. This seems to me to be one of those cases, but it’s a tricky argument to make: Trunp only cared about Biden being corrupt because it would help his election chances. Well, yeah, but …

        Also I’m of the opinion that this kind of quid pro quo is a staple of politicians—and most of them probably feel entitled to do it. Which is why neither Trump or Biden have shown any qualms about public ally admitting pressuring Ukraine for things that also may have been beneficial to themselves.

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    • Yet that research didn’t prepare DARPA for Russia’s 2016 disinformation campaign. Its extent was uncovered only by reporters and academics.

      I think that’s kind of overselling both Russia’s “disinformation campaign” and the roll of the media on accurately “uncovering” anything.

      Also, the implication they are going to do something to manage memes is laughable. They can burn money “assessing” the threat but I expect they will have zero impact in changing anything.

      Also I’m pretty sure the term “meme” existed before Dawkins.

      Like

  1. This is telling – no one votes for anyone anymore, just against:

    “Carlson then asked whether the Democratic Party has moved too far left since Clinton last ran for her to be a viable candidate in 2020.

    “Well, look, this is a huge if, but if she would jump in for whatever reason, and the party has moved someplace that she hasn’t, then she won’t get the votes,” Reines responded. “If she would run and people would think she’s too left, too right, too center, or whatever you want to call it, that’s the beauty of it. They get to vote against whoever they want.””

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/hillary-clinton-advisor-says-she-has-not-closed-the-door-on-2020-run/

    Like

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