Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 2945 | -6.25 |
| Oil (WTI) | 53.63 | 0.84 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 1.54% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 3.84% |
Stocks are slightly lower on trade concerns and weak European data. Bonds and MBS are flat.
The upcoming week should be relatively quiet, with only inflation data and a slew of Fed-speak. Since increasing inflation is no longer front and center of the Fed’s concerns, the CPI and PPI should be non-events. We will also get the minutes from the September FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Interesting stat on how long it takes to build a home in different geographic areas. The Mid-Atlantic region (which contains red-tape heavyweights like NY and NJ) is the longest at 10.5 months. The West Coast is right up there as well, at 9.9 months. The Southeast has the shortest timeline at 6.6 months.
IPOs have been a treacherous investment over the past few years, as the venture capitalists and early entry investors have been reaping the rewards, at least for some of the biggest names (Uber, Lyft, Slack). We Work recently pulled its IPO as investors balked at the corporate governance issues and cash burn. While not all IPOs have been disasters, historically they have popped about 20% on the first day of trading. Not any more.
The National Retail Federation sees holiday sales at 3.8% – 4.2%, citing trade concerns over holiday spending. This is the low side of the holiday forecasts, which are coming in closer to 5%. The last 5 years have been around 3.7%, so the forecast is for something between “above average” and “great.” Since consumption is about 70% of the economy, we could be looking at better GDP numbers heading into the end of the year, which would put pressure on the Fed to slow down their pace of rate cuts.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
The “South Atlantic” includes some big population areas in FL, GA, NC, and VA, so that stat surprises me. I think most of those areas adhere to Southern Building Code.
Austin, in the city limits, is a freaking nightmare of red tape. Probably is an outlier for the region, as it is for its own metropolitan area.
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You all might be familar with the case that required you to take Part A if you want your social security benefits. https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/890596479218E0818525799D00548389/$file/11-5076-1356903.pdf
there’s a section in the recent Medicare E.O. that looks to address that.
Sec. 11. Maximizing Freedom for Medicare Patients and Providers. (a) Within 180 days of the date of this order, the Secretary, in coordination with the Commissioner of Social Security, shall revise current rules or policies to preserve the Social Security retirement insurance benefits of seniors who choose not to receive benefits under Medicare Part A, and propose other administrative improvements to Medicare enrollment processes for beneficiaries.
(b) Within 1 year of the date of this order, the Secretary shall identify and remove unnecessary barriers to private contracts that allow Medicare beneficiaries to obtain the care of their choice and facilitate the development of market-driven prices.
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Has this been through te Fed Register already, or are we just now in the comment period?
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No. This is from the E.O. … so the agencies have yet to issue any proposals. it’s going to be a few months before we see anything concrete.
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Who stands to gain the most from this? CVS and Walmart?
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there’s a lot ot unpack, but the idea being more flexibility for plans and providers across the board.
and for patients. there’s some stuff in there that I read as allow concierge-type care.
so walmart and cvs benefit the most? no. but they’ll benefit.
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what is the main attraction of concierge care? the ability to talk your doctor’s ear off for an annual fee?
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same-day appointments. longer visit.
a regular panel size for a primary care doc is about 2300. for concierge 600
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I wish there had been some way to get these sorts of policy changes without Trump.
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Yeah. And problem with a Trump is you really can’t be sure what you’re going to get.
He’s certainly terrible for making the case that these are good policies.
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Trump also signed the OTC hearing aid law.
https://www.hearingtracker.com/news/first-look-at-the-bose-hearing-aid
Which I think is awesome.
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Worth a read:
“What the Bidens Did and Didn’t Do In Ukraine
By Chris Ladd
October 6, 2019”
https://www.politicalorphans.com/what-the-bidens-did-and-didnt-do-in-ukraine/
Edit: In depth profile of Hunter.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/07/08/will-hunter-biden-jeopardize-his-fathers-campaign
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Taibbi weighs in on the whistle-blower saga:
“The ‘Whistleblower’ Probably Isn’t
It’s an insult to real whistleblowers to use the term with the Ukrainegate protagonist
By Matt Taibbi”
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/whistleblower-ukraine-trump-impeach-cia-spying-895529/
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I think he’s pretty much got the right of it on this. This isn’t any kind of whistleblower and it’s an orchestrated effort (he doesn’t mention the conversation with Schiff’s staff or the midnight rewrite of the whistleblower rules to allow the hearsay complaint).
While I don’t think there is anything that unusual (or honestly even that bad) about what Trump actually said or did here—as far as we actually know it— that’s a separate issue entirely from the machinations of the “whistleblower”, which seems awfully Deep State coup-ish to me (although the Deep State assures me that there’s no Deep State, so there’s that). This is not a whistleblowing incident, at all, and the journalists and eatablishment politicians going along with this (including many folks on the Georgetown cocktail party
right) seem hopelessly misguided here. At least to me.
I feel like Taibbi isn’t going to last at Rolling Stone, however. Yet I don’t think he can honestly be unaware of the new Puritans running the media and entertainment world these days. So he’s got balls.
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He got some blow back:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/why-theyre-attacking-the-whistle-blower/599680/
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It seems more like frame-changing, try to refocus the narrative that really being hostile to Taibbi. I’m just wondering if he’s going to get to keep his gig. On the wrong side of this issue and was on the wrong side of Russian collusion.
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