Morning Report: Small Business Optimism slips

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2968 -10
Oil (WTI) 57.95 0.25
10 year government bond yield 2.06%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.03%

 

Stocks are lower this morning as we await a speech from Jerome Powell. Bonds and MBS are down.

 

Jerome Powell speaks at 8:45 this morning at the Boston Fed regarding stress-testing for the banks. Here are his prepared remarks. He doesn’t address monetary policy.

 

There were 7.3 million job openings in May, down slightly from April. The quits rate, which tends to lead increases in wages, was steady at 2.3%, where it has been all year. Private sector openings were flat, while government fell by about 40,000.

 

Small Business Optimism slipped in June, according to the NFIB. This reversed May’s jump, however sentiment is still at historically high levels. Expectations eased for sales and profitability, and the outlook for capital expenditures weakened. The capital expenditure level was the lowest since May 2015. Employment also decreased, however most firms are still in hiring mode, with the availability of qualified labor the biggest issue.

 

NFIB

 

The Congressional Budget Office analyzed the probable effects of raising the Federal Minimum Wage to $15 an hour. Unsurprisingly, they concluded that it would cost jobs, with the median estimate coming in at 1.3 million. The graph below looks at how the constant dollar minimum wage has behaved relative to the bottom 10th and 25th percentile of workers over time.

 

minimum wage

 

Mortgage delinquencies are the lowest in 20 years, according to CoreLogic. 30 day DQs fell 0.7% to 3.6%, while the foreclosure rate slipped 0.1% to 0.4%. Delinquencies fell pretty much across the board, with the exception of areas that were affected by natural disasters.

9 Responses

  1. The left is trying to Alinsky the Federalist Society.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-federalist-society-just-became-a-no-go-zone-for-federal-judges/2019/07/08/dfb3ee56-9c45-11e9-b27f-ed2942f73d70_story.html?utm_term=.d7968f71a4f7

    Is there any similar organization to the FS on the left? I did read the ABA platform a while ago and it seemed to be boilerplate D policy.

    Like

    • Brent:

      Is there any similar organization to the FS on the left?

      Pretty much every law school in the nation?

      Like

  2. KosKidz not happy with AG Barr. Must be 4-5 posts on Barr on the front page.

    https://m.dailykos.com/

    Like

  3. The latest way the Man keeps you down: Spending too much on office A/C.

    “Freezing Workers of the World, Unite!

    By Aaron Freedman
    07.09.2019

    Millions of you are suffering in overly air-conditioned workplaces right now. This isn’t about remembering to bring an extra sweater to work — it’s class war. Workers should be in control of office temperature, not bosses.”

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/07/air-conditioning-workplace-organizing-gender-discrimination

    Like

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