Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 2826 | -5 |
| Oil (WTI) | 58.98 | 0.35 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 2.29% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 4.41% |
Stocks are flattish as investors return from the long Memorial Day weekend. Bonds and MBS are flat.
Mortgage REITs like Annaly and American Capital Agency are increasing the size of their mortgage books. Over the past year, mortgage REITs have increased their exposure by 28%. The agency REITs generally stay fully invested in a portfolio of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS and adjust duration exposure and leverage as different pockets of value develop in the MBS market. Mortgage REITs are an important source of financing for the residential real estate market, and are stepping up as the Fed reduces its exposure. What does this increase in exposure tell us? That these REITs are betting on interest rate stability over the near term. If you own a large leveraged portfolio of mortgage bonds, you want rates to move as little as possible to maximize your returns.
Home prices rose 3.7% in March according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. This is a decline from the 3.9% increase reported in February. Real estate prices probably rose too far too fast especially out West and now we are seeing a leveling-off. Prices in Los Angeles, San Diego, Seattle, and San Francisco were up only about 1%. Meanwhile, prices are falling in Manhattan, to the tune of 5.2%.
The FHFA House Price Index rose 5.2% in March, which shows that there is still decent demand at the lower price points. The FHFA index only considers houses with conforming mortgages, which means it excludes the jumbo market and that is where the slowdown is occurring.
One of the worst this-time-is-different hot takes on the real estate market was the Millennials want to live in walkable, urban areas one. There were lots of approving news stories and analysis pieces about environmentally conscious Millennials who take mass transit and live in dense urban environments. Was this some sort of social movement or nothing more than a transient phenomenon based on circumstances? It is looking more like the latter. The Brookings Institution notes that the suburbs are now growing, while cities are losing residents. As Millennials start having kids, it turns out they want the same thing every generation wanted before them: a yard and good schools. New York City lost 39,000 residents last year, and we are seeing the same thing in expensive West Coast cities. One of the most cited impediments to more homebuilding has been the lack of buildable lots. I wonder if this was due to builders focusing on urban areas. If the exurbs are coming back, that issue should disappear.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Good read:
https://www.lawfareblog.com/us-media-crosshairs-new-assange-indictment
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In the wake of the Russian collusion hoax, the notion of the media as a trustworthy check on the government through the publishing of leaked, classified info is somewhat laughable. As we have seen, the media is just as likely to be either a dupe to or a collaborator with the leaker in an effort to advance its own false narrative as it is to be providing any real transparency to the public.
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What’s the word in London about the most recent election?
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It’s largely being seen as really bad for the two main parties, although a lot of people are just ignoring it as an unimportant sideshow. At this point I think there are only two possibilities for Brexit….either a no-deal brexit or a new referendum. From an objective point of view, what they really need is a new election to break the impasse, but that will never happen because it could conceivably lead to a Jeremy Corbyn government, and even some people in Labor don’t want that. (Today I saw Tony Blair interviewed and he said the Tories would be “insane” call for an election now.) Perhaps the Tory leadership race will provide some clarity once it is over, but I doubt it.
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Or of course the supreme irony of news outlets arguing against declassification if it is perceived to possibly be favorable to Trump:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/trump-william-barr-declassification-national-security-dan-coats-threat.html
Regardless, I still view the prosecution of Assange for publishing information that was given to him by someone else as a major break of the First Amendment as it’s been understood since the Pentagon Papers case.
Kevin Williamson makes the contrary case quite well:
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/julian-assange-glenn-greenwald-and-journalism/
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Thanks for the KW article. I am entirely with him.
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Just reading several Andrew Sullivan. Amazing how some stuff seems so thoughtful and reasonable and objectively reasoned, and then he slides effortlessly into Trig Trutherism levels of fantastical thinking on Climate Change (or to a lesser degree, IMO, on Trump) …. perhaps it’s my biases, but I don’t think so. When discussing identity politics or transgenderism in sports, he seems to actively look at all sides and accurately characterize them and point to real constraints and consequences. Then he brings up some UN report that climate change is going to kill a million species off as if it was an established fact and mourns that we are destroying Creation and … I dunno, it’s just weird.
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