Morning Report: 35% of metro areas are overvalued

Vital Statistics:


Last Change
S&P futures 2821 26
Oil (WTI) 61.65 0.61
10 year government bond yield 2.42%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.17%


Stocks are higher this morning as overseas stocks rebound. Bonds and MBS are down.


Small Business Optimism increased in April, according to the NFIB. Pretty much every component of the index increased, with only capital expenditure plans unchanged from March. “The ‘real’ economy is doing very well versus what we see in financial market volatility. Many jobs were created, and GDP produced with no substantive inflation pressure. The pace of economic growth has accelerated, and consumers and small businesses are an important part of the improvement in sales,” said NFIB’s Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.


What will global warming do to Florida real estate values? According to one environmentalist, lending for 30 year for Florida property is insane. “No one should be lending for 30 years in most of Florida,” [Woods Hole senior fellow Spencer Glendon] said at an investment conference in New York last week. “During that time frame, insurance will disappear and terminal values” — future resale income — “will shrink. I tell my parents that it’s fine to rent in Florida, but it’s insane to own or to lend.” Note that the US flood insurance is heavily subsidized and will probably have to be cut back if the more extreme forecasts end up being borne out.


Stocks had a bit of a rebound yesterday after Steve Mnuchin assured that the trade talks with China are still ongoing. Uber had another rough day, with the stock closing at $37.10 a share, down 18% from the IPO price on Friday.


30 day DQs are down 80 basis points from 4.8% to 4% according to CoreLogic. DQs fell in every bucket, and the foreclosure rate fell from 0.6% to 0.4%. Separately, home prices rose 3.7% YOY in February. 35% of cities have overvalued housing stock, while 26% are undervalued and 39% are fairly valued.


Corelogic overvalued

13 Responses

  1. Miniseries recommendation:

    HBO’s Chernobyl

    It’s quite disturbing.


    • oh, i’ve been meaning to start that.
      probably won’t until GOT is done.


      • If it’s halfway accurate, it was a lot worse than I thought at the time.


        • I don’t know (haven’t watched it) but I was struck by the “nothing has ever happened like this on the planet” statement. But something like it must have, I would think, the Oklo natural fission reactors–which admittedly took place like 1.7 billion years ago, but still. Good chance not the first time that sort of thing happened.


        • I don’t think there’s been evidence found that they blew up. More like a natural low level fission that heated up the surrounding water.

          Among other things, the uranium there wouldn’t have been purified intentionally.

          Liked by 1 person

      • I don’t think there’s been evidence found that they blew up. More like a natural low level fission that heated up the surrounding water.

        There’s a 100% consensus amongst myself that they totally blew up, which proves it because that’s how science works!

        Eh, I’m sure you’re right. But I feel natural nuclear reactors exploding a billion years ago is a lot more exciting.

        It’s amazing to me that Chernobyl was essentially a safety test that went out of control. If they had just been a little more lackadaisical and skipped the safety test, Chernobyl might be operating fine even now. Or if, you know, they had followed best practices in plant construction known even then, it also never would have happened.

        Speaking of disaster, @novahockey, what’s your take on this season’s GoT? Now it just feels like very expensive, not particularly well-written, fan fiction. In addition to being rushed to get to the “good parts”. Meh. I’m looking forward to Martin actually finishing the books. If he ever does. Getting longer and slower and more dense actually works better for me than this readers-digest abridged version.


    • The documentary about Russian closed cities was pretty good too…


  2. Interesting piece on Sanders.This is a good summation on how woke progressives view political outreach these days.

    “On the Trail With Bernie Sanders 2.0

    Can the Vermont senator win over Trump voters and harness his grassroots army to transform the Democratic Party?
    By Matt Taibbi

    Sanders thinks the whole working class shares this anger, but this trip is overtly about the white portion of that demographic. That he’s even making a pitch to Trump voters is an act of defiance. Much of the commercial news media since 2016 has doubled down on Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” line, dismissing Trump voters as motivated entirely by racism. To court them at all, the thinking goes, is itself a form of white identity politics.

    In the Trump era, “crossing the aisle” is about as popular among blue-state intelligentsia as scabies or snuff films. No effort to court the Fox audience is considered kosher. In a year when Democrats officially cut off Fox as a debate broadcaster, Sanders’ decision to do the town hall was a political act in itself. Did it accomplish anything?”


  3. Just got this email from the Bernie Sanders mailing list:

    Short version: Republicans are racist Hitlers. Send money now!

    Lest we forget, it’s the GOP that has courted homophobes, misogynists, anti-Semites, racists, & Islamophobes. President Trump called the white supremacists and Neo-Nazis that were chanting “Jews will not replace us” while marching through the streets of Charlottesville “very fine people.” And just this week, Trump invited to the White House a far-right Hungarian leader who rose to power exploiting anti-Semitism and the fear of immigrants.

    In the face of these outrages by their president, the GOP has been silent, but when it serves their agenda of using anti-Muslim fear and bigotry to incite their base, they’re all in. And so they leapt to the attack against Rashida, Rep. Ilhan Omar, and other women of color who are fierce advocates for our movement. They have used their bully pulpit to stoke fear and resentment of minority communities that are finally being represented in the People’s House.

    Rashida is the first Palestinian-American woman elected to Congress. In telling the history of Palestine, she recently spoke of the time after the Holocaust when Jews sought refuge and a new state was established. But that’s not what Republicans and right-wing media reported.

    Holding a light to the ugly stains of discrimination that are seeping through the modern Republican Party is not enough of a response to these attacks, or the current context of our political environment. Being satisfied now that Rashida, Rep. Ilhan Omar, and other history-making women of color have been elected to Congress is not enough to create the change we need.

    The only force capable of defeating the bigotry, injustice, and hypocrisy that exist in our politics today is a complete political revolution that recenters our priorities around achieving racial, social, economic, and environmental justice.

    Rashida is an important leader who Our Revolution was proud to support during her primary campaign last year. She is creating the space to open up our party to more progressives like her by being fearless in the face of GOP attacks. Make a $5 contribution to help continue this vital work today.

    While I expect the counter-factual spin is predictable for any partisan missive, it just goes to the root: it’s all about the benjamins.


  4. The three quoted D’s are from those purplish stares of R.I, Maryland and NY. Yeah, totally swing seats.


    • Democratic members of the House Judiciary Committee have grown increasingly impatient with President Donald Trump’s attempts to block their Russia investigation.

      Because it’s yet another stupid waste of time, and completely a partisan witch hunt–it is literally like a Republican-led Judiciary committee complaining that Obama was blocking their Investigiation to Prove Obama Was Born in Kenya. They are just Collusion Truthers.

      And I’m not saying investigation into foreign interference in elections is not a thing that should be done, only that they aren’t the people to do it and this is clearly not actually an investigation in foreign interference–which is probably far, far less now by a large percentage than during any point during the cold war.

      “The more that the president denies us, the ordinary lawful demands for witnesses and documents, the more unified we are,”

      . . . In not delivering any pork back to our state. You gotta be in a safe seat for that to sit well with the electorate, I think.


    • Beto is a dumpster fire of a candidate who only ever looked as good as he did being propped up by a slavishly reverential media as the full might of the DNC as he sought to unseat Ted Cruz.

      Even that article doesn’t begin to touch on what a hot mess he is. If it were necessary, the DNC would torpedo him like a Sanders in a heartbeat now. Fortunately for them, it’s not remotely necessary, as he is self-immolating almost every day.


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