Morning Report: More on Friday’s jobs report

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2756 0.4
Eurostoxx index 371.87 1.24
Oil (WTI) 56.47 0.4
10 year government bond yield 2.65%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.32%

 

Stocks are flattish on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

The upcoming week has a lot of economic data, however most of it is not housing related, and probably won’t be market-moving either. The biggest housing-related number will be new home sales and construction spending. We will also get inflation data and industrial production.

 

Friday’s payroll number was a definite downward surprise, and the question is whether this indicates a slowing labor market? Extremely low job prints happen occasionally we had sub-20k months in Sep 2017 and May 2016. Both prints ended up being a blip, and there is a good chance this gets revised upward in next month’s number. The number to take away from the jobs report is the increase in average hourly earnings. Average hourly earnings are a notoriously non-volatile series, and this one keeps inexorably increasing by larger and larger amounts.

 

average hourly earnings

 

Just because the US economy is doing relatively well, that doesn’t mean things are rosy overseas. China has had some bad days in the stock market, and the cracks are starting to appear in the economy. In Europe, the German Bund yield (The European benchmark) is about to go negative. Growth estimates have been slashed from 1.7% to 1.1%. So there is a bit of a global slowdown, and it means that we will probably take some shrapnel in the form of lower rates.

 

CFPB Chair Kathy Kraninger appeared before the House Financial Services Committee last week, and the commentary broke down along partisan lines. Democrats, pining for the Cordray days, had a laundry list of complaints, ranging from a de-emphasis on payday lenders to kvetching about changes in internal reporting lines. Republicans generally supported her and the agency’s end of regulation by enforcement. Kraninger reaffirmed the Agency’s commitment to chasing bad financial actors.

14 Responses

  1. Leaving aside the actual merits of the policy, I wonder if Warren appreciates that the government and the Democratic party as institutions may not have as much credibility with the public as the targets of her proposed anti-trust actions.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/11/18259885/elizabeth-warren-break-up-apple-google-facebook

    Liked by 1 person

    • This is all about forcing the these companies to de-platform the right

      Like

      • I don’t see how that applies to Apple. If anything, forcing them to open up the Apple app store or allow unapproved applications to be installed would do the opposite.

        Not everything is about straight partisan politics.

        It will be interesting to see if Warren applies her analysis of platforms and content co-ownership to Hollywood and threatens anti-trust action against Disney or Netflix for owning the content and the platform and leveraging one to grow the other.

        Liked by 1 person

    • What are her future political aspirations? Attacking the biggest collective pools of progressive wealth in the country does not seem like the behavior of someone who plans to be elected supreme ruler and overlord one day.

      Like

  2. Read Max Boot’s column. Its amazing how Trump has turned people into John McCain.

    Like

  3. How can you argue that demographics are electoral destiny while at the same time urging your side to stop having kids due to the injustice of bringing them into a world ravaged by global warming?

    https://www.vox.com/2019/3/11/18256166/climate-change-having-kids

    Like

    • check your internal logic

      Like

    • I think there are distinct groups making those arguments even if there is some overlap. Also I think there is some “well, I’m not going to have kids, but the next generation is going to come from somewhere” argument in there.

      And, of course, immigration. Unchecked non-assimilated imlmigration will being about utopia.

      Like

  4. Serious question, how is this not cultural appropriation?

    AUSTIN, Texas — https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1105151644017278982/photo/1

    Like

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