Morning Report: Job openings exceed unemployed by over 1 million

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2751.25 6.5
Eurostoxx index 364.16 1.38
Oil (WTI) 53.66 0.58
10 year government bond yield 2.69%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.43%

 

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

It looks like a shutdown may be avoided, as Congress has come up with a plan to allocate some funds to a smaller, cheaper border wall than Trump was looking for. The President hasn’t committed to signing anything yet, but it looks like he will go along.

 

The labor market continues to be on fire, as the number of job openings hit 7.3 million, a series record. The number of job openings exceeds the number of unemployed by over 1 million. Construction led the increase with a jump of 88,000, some of which is probably seasonal. The quits rate was unchanged at 2.3%, although it increased for the private sector while decreasing for government. The quits rate is a leading indicator for wage growth.

 

quits rate

 

Mortgage Applications fell 3.7% last week as purchases fell 6% and refis fell .01%.

 

Ellie Mae is being taken private in a $3.7 billion transaction. Private Equity firm Thomas Bravo will pay $99 a share for the stock, and has allowed a 35 day “go-shop” provision, which permits Ellie Mae to seek higher bids.

 

Small business optimism is returning to normal levels after spiking to all time highs in 2017 and 2018 according to the National Federation of Independent Businesses. Uncertainty in Washington, exacerbated by the lengthy government shutdown is making small business worried about the future. That said, they continue to hire, though they are more cautious about expansion plans.

 

 

 

 

6 Responses

  1. Further to bank mergers, the “deregulation” than Maxine Waters was talking about is that regulators are giving less weight to community groups which basically were given veto power over bank mergers during the Clinton and Obama adminstrations.

    These are basically just “social justice” protection rackets, which can tie up mergers until the banks agree to shovel funds to their buddies.

    Like

  2. This will guarantee job security.

    Better brush up on their coding skills.

    Like

  3. The quits rate was unchanged at 2.3%, although it increased for the private sector while decreasing for government. The quits rate is a leading indicator for wage growth

    Do you see that changing at all?

    Like

    • I don’t think so. I suspect that the improvement in the labor market has some legs and employers will have to either give raises or watch their turnover increase.

      Like

      • so the coverage of wages/labor is totally divorced from the actual situation.

        Like

        • meaning the press narrative that the labor market is terrible and the only reason why wages have gone up is because of new minimum wage legislation? and even that is not real because inflation is running at 3.5%.

          yes.

          Like

Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: