Morning Report: Quiet week coming up

Posted on November 19, 2018 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2732 10.5
Eurostoxx index 357.96 0.25
Oil (WTI) 56.54 0.08
10 year government bond yield 3.08%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.89%

 

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

 

We had a decent rally in the bond market last week, with the 10-year yield breaking 3.1% to the downside.

 

This should be a very quiet week coming up with the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The bond market will close early on Friday. There isn’t anything in the way of market-moving economic data, except for perhaps housing starts on Tuesday. We will also get existing home sales on Wednesday, along with the index of leading economic indicators. There will be some Fed-speak today, and the rest of the week is clear.

 

Industrial Production rose 0.1% in October, while Manufacturing production rose 0.3%. Capacity Utilization slipped a touch to 78.4%. Hurricane-related utility outages drove the lower IP number.

 

Larry Summers sees a 50/50 chance of a recession by 2020. “I think the risks if we have a recession are very, very serious so they [The Fed] need to bend over backward to avoid that,” he said. He thinks the Fed should probably err on the side of allowing inflation to build, and the fact it was so low for so long gives the Fed the breathing room to allow it to increase without unleashing an uncontrollable situation. He also thinks Trump should cut a deal with Democrats for an infrastructure spending package.

 

One strategist thinks it might be time to do some bottom-fishing in the homebuilding sector.

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |

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6 Responses

  1. Let the mutherfuker burn!, on November 19, 2018 at 10:48 am said:

    This made me laugh.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
    • jnc4p, on November 19, 2018 at 3:11 pm said:

      I’m reminded of the quote from the Joker in The Dark Knight:

      “The Joker: You know… You know what I’ve noticed? Nobody panics when things go “according to plan.” Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it’s all “part of the plan”. But when I say that one little old mayor will die, well then everyone loses their minds! ”

      https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0468569/quotes/qt0499831

      Substitute “mayor” for “journalist” and “truckload of soldiers” for “busload of Yemeni schoolchildren”.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
      • novahockey, on November 19, 2018 at 4:05 pm said:

        that movie as so many good lines:

        The Chechen: [During a private sit down meeting with the gangsters] What do you propose?

        The Joker: It’s simple. We, uh, kill the Batman.

        [mobsters laugh]

        Salvatore Maroni: If it’s so simple, why haven’t you done it already?

        The Joker: If you’re good at something, never do it for free

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply
  2. Let the mutherfuker burn!, on November 19, 2018 at 4:40 pm said:

    The replies are amazing.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  3. Let the mutherfuker burn!, on November 19, 2018 at 4:48 pm said:

    There is a truth to this that get’s lost in the gun control debate. I’d ditto for the local po-po as well.

    Like

    Reply

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