Morning Report: Commodity Prices falling

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2778 -30
Eurostoxx index 364.14 -1.6
Oil (WTI) 60.5 0.31
10 year government bond yield 3.19%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.98%

 

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

Markets are open today, however many people are taking the day off in observance of Veteran’s Day.

 

There won’t be much in the way of market-moving data this week (CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday are the only potential market movers), however we do have a lot of Fed-speak, with Jerome Powell speaking on Wednesday.

 

Inflation at the wholesale level was a little hotter than expected, rising 0.6% MOM and 2.9% YOY. Ex food and energy, it rose 0.5% / 2.8% and ex food, energy and trade services (the core rate) it rose 0.2% / 2.8%. Inflation using the PPI metric is higher than the Fed’s 2% target, but the PPI isn’t the measure they target. We will get inflation at the consumer level on Wednesday.

 

Consumer sentiment improved in the first reading of the November numbers, according to the University of Michigan sentiment survey.

 

Amazing statistic: 20% of China’s apartments are vacant. That works out to be 50 million apartments. One of the biggest symptoms of a bubble is oversupply, and a 20% vacancy rate would qualify. In the big cities, apartments are ridiculously expensive, trading for something like 40 – 50 times income. For reference, prices in the US topped out at just under 5 times income in 2006. Chinese economic statistics are heavily massaged by government, but there is no doubt that they have the sort of real estate bubbles that seem to occur after decades of rapid growth, similar to the US in the 20s and Japan in the 80s. Once their bubble bursts, China will try and export their way out of it, which will probably spark more trade tensions, but will also put downward pressure on inflation and interest rates globally. The US could go through another period of having its cake and eating it too – a period where they go through strong economic growth without inflation worries.

 

Speaking of inflation, oil has been getting shellacked over the past month, losing over 20% from mid-October. Part of this has been driven by the US allowing 8 companies to buy Iranian oil despite sanctions. OPEC is now entertaining production cuts, which has stabilized prices at least today.

 

Also note that lumber prices (which have been soaring due to Canadian tariffs) have now reversed and are heading lower. This should help lower new home construction costs, although the biggest bottleneck remains labor and affordable lots.

 

lumber

 

So, while we are seeing inflationary pressures building in the labor market, commodities are going the other way.

 

California passed a couple of housing affordability initiatives last week, which were mainly targeted to the Bay Area. Similar measures in Oregon and Florida also passed.

4 Responses

    • Media jumps for Trump, as is pointed out in Joe’s Vox link.

      Ds are unlikely to stay on message, as is implied by the link.

      In a good economy only a D with a quick wit and sense of humor and easy grace has any chance against DJT. In a bad economy [God forbid] DJT loses. But any D nominee could be crippled by a D House that doesn’t stay on message.

      Like

    • They did not, as a party, run on investigating or impeaching Trump. They did not, as a party, run on abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement or passing Medicare-for-all. They did not, as a party, offer an equal but opposite reaction to Trump. Their campaign seemed to exist in an alternate universe, one where Jeb Bush had been elected president and had repealed Obamacare, and where few had ever heard the words “Russia” or “Mueller.”

      I don’t think this is reflective of a lot of voter’s experience. This was not how the campaigns looked through the lenses of CNN and MSNBC and the NYT and WaPo. It may be how the party ran things, and it maybe worked for those paying close attention to the campaigns, but this wasn’t how things looked via the media.

      Like

  1. Traveling this week. Everyone take care and catch you next week

    Like

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